Al Nasr 0-1 Al Ain – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Ain at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Nasr vs Al Ain encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Al Maktoum Stadium plays host to Al Nasr versus Al Ain in Pro League, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Tuesday 17 May 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al Nasr have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al Nasr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Nasr have posted 4W 2D 4L at Al Maktoum Stadium — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Al Ain (all games): 9W 1D 0L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 2.80 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Al Ain, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Ain have posted 7W 2D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 2.30 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Al Ain are the stronger side — 1.40 PPG clear of the hosts (2.80 vs 1.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Al Nasr, 1 for Al Ain and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 25 Dec 2021, ended 1–3 with Al Ain winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Al Nasr half-time and goal-timing data (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Al Ain half-time and goal-timing data (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Nasr 52% versus Al Ain 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Nasr 74% | Al Ain 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Nasr 1.07 xG and Al Ain 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Nasr attack 1.043 / defence 1.159 | Al Ain attack 0.975 / defence 0.785. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.271. Al Ain's defence strength of 0.785 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 23 Al Nasr games / 23 Al Ain games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Nasr 28% | Draw 26% | Al Ain 46%. Fair-value odds: Al Nasr 3.57 | Draw 3.85 | Al Ain 2.17. Al Ain hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Ain at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Ain if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Al Nasr 40% | Al Ain 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Nasr vs Al Ain | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Al Maktoum Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 17 May 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Nasr 28% | Draw 26% | Al Ain 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Al Nasr 1.07 / Al Ain 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Al Nasr attack 1.043 / def 1.159 | Al Ain attack 0.975 / def 0.785 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.271 • Poisson stance: Al Ain (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Al Nasr xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Al Ain xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Nasr vs Al Ain kick off?
Al Nasr vs Al Ain kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 17 May 2022 at Al Maktoum Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Nasr vs Al Ain?
Al Nasr 0 - 1 Al Ain.
Where is Al Nasr vs Al Ain being played?
The match is being played at Al Maktoum Stadium.
What competition is Al Nasr vs Al Ain part of?
Al Nasr vs Al Ain is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Nasr vs Al Ain?
Our statistical model gives Al Nasr a 28% chance of winning, Al Ain a 46% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al Ain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Nasr vs Al Ain?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Al Nasr and Al Ain will score (BTTS).
Will Al Nasr vs Al Ain have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Nasr and Al Ain?
Record (1 meetings): Al Nasr 0W | Draws 0 | Al Ain 1W.
What form are Al Nasr and Al Ain in?
Al Nasr (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. Al Ain (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al Nasr's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Al Ain's defensive record (0.79x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.07. Flip it around — Al Ain's attack (0.97x) against Al Nasr's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.1%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Ain Win
28%
3.56
26%
3.79
46%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Al Nasr xG
Total xG
2.50
1.44
Al Ain xG
3.56
28%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
2.20
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
24%
4.21
34%
2.91
Win to Nil
7%
15.00
16%
6.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 11.7 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.5 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.7 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Nasr vs Al Ain?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Al Nasr and Al Ain expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Al Nasr and 1.44 for Al Ain, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Nasr vs Al Ain?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al Nasr come into this having played 23 games, going 9W 5D 9L for 1.39 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-W. The sample for Al Nasr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Ain sit at 2.52 PPG from 23 outings (18W 4D 1L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Al Ain is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Ain carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.13 PPG clear of Al Nasr — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Al Nasr's home form reads 5W 2D 4L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.55 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Ain have taken 2.36 points per game from 11 outings (8W 2D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Ain come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al Nasr are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Al Ain are on 2.22 scored and 0.70 conceded.
Defensively: Al Ain in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 23 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Nasr
Blended
Al Ain
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Nasr and Al Ain in coming into this match?
Al Nasr have gone 9W 5D 9L in their last 23 games (1.39 PPG), while Al Ain have gone 18W 4D 1L in their last 23 (2.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Nasr at home or Al Ain away?
Al Ain's away record (2.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Nasr at home: 1.55 PPG; Al Ain away: 2.36 PPG.
Have Al Nasr or Al Ain been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Nasr have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Al Ain in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Ain won 4-1 on 21 Jan 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Nasr have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al Ain — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Al Nasr
2
Draws
5
Al Ain
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Nasr and Al Ain?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Nasr have won 3, Al Ain have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Nasr and Al Ain last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Al Ain 1-1 Al Nasr.
Who has won more matches between Al Nasr and Al Ain?
Al Ain have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Nasr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Al Ain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 73% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Nasr 36%, Al Ain 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Al Nasr) and 36% (Al Ain).
On the defensive side: Al Nasr keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Al Ain in 54%; Al Nasr have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Nasr home games / Al Ain away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Nasr play Al Ain?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Al Nasr's recent matches and 36% of Al Ain's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Nasr vs Al Ain usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Al Nasr's recent games and 36% of Al Ain's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Nasr and Al Ain tend to score early?
Al Nasr have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Al Ain in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Ain edge out Al Nasr 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Ain beat Al Nasr 0-1 at Al Maktoum Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Nasr 1.07 xG and Al Ain 1.44 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al Nasr fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Nasr attack 1.04 / defence 1.16 against Al Ain attack 0.97 / defence 0.79, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Nasr 28% | Draw 26% | Al Ain 46%, with Al Ain to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Nasr 74%, Al Ain 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Nasr's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Al Ain's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Ain arrived the stronger side — 2.52 PPG against 1.39. Form held, and they took the win. Al Nasr (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward. Al Ain (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.