Al-Jazira 1-0 Sharjah FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Jazira at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Jazira vs Sharjah FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 18 as Al-Jazira welcome Sharjah FC to Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 4 March 2022 at 16:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Jazira have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: D W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Al-Jazira, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Jazira's form when playing at home: 7W 0D 1L across 8 games at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium this term (2.62 PPG). They are averaging 2.25 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 clean sheets from 8 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.62 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Al-Jazira are significantly better at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Sharjah FC — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Sharjah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sharjah FC away from home this season: 3W 3D 2L from 8 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 8 away games (38%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Sharjah FC — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Al-Jazira, 1 for Sharjah FC and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Sep 2021, ended 1–2 with Sharjah FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al-Jazira trading profile (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Sharjah FC trading profile (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Jazira 50% versus Sharjah FC 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Jazira 62% | Sharjah FC 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Jazira 1.50 xG and Sharjah FC 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Jazira attack 1.281 / defence 1.241 | Sharjah FC attack 0.856 / defence 1.078. League average goals — home 1.088 / away 1.222. Al-Jazira carry an above-average attack strength of 1.281 — their λ of 1.50 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 16 Al-Jazira games / 17 Sharjah FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Jazira 41% | Draw 27% | Sharjah FC 32%. Fair-value odds: Al-Jazira 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | Sharjah FC 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Jazira are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sharjah FC (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Jazira offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.80 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al-Jazira 50% | Sharjah FC 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Jazira vs Sharjah FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 4 Mar 2022, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Jazira 41% | Draw 27% | Sharjah FC 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Al-Jazira 1.50 / Sharjah FC 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Jazira attack 1.281 / def 1.241 | Sharjah FC attack 0.856 / def 1.078 | league avg home 1.088 / away 1.222 • Poisson stance: Al-Jazira (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Al-Jazira xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Sharjah FC xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Jazira vs Sharjah FC kick off?
Al-Jazira vs Sharjah FC kicked off at 16:15 on Friday 4 March 2022 at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Jazira vs Sharjah FC?
Al-Jazira 1 - 0 Sharjah FC.
Where is Al-Jazira vs Sharjah FC being played?
The match is being played at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium.
What competition is Al-Jazira vs Sharjah FC part of?
Al-Jazira vs Sharjah FC is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Jazira vs Sharjah FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Jazira a 41% chance of winning, Sharjah FC a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Jazira the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Jazira vs Sharjah FC?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Al-Jazira and Sharjah FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Jazira vs Sharjah FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Jazira and Sharjah FC?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Jazira 0W | Draws 0 | Sharjah FC 1W.
What form are Al-Jazira and Sharjah FC in?
Al-Jazira (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. Sharjah FC (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Jazira's attack rating (1.28) and Sharjah FC's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sharjah FC's attack versus Al-Jazira's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Jazira Win
41%
2.43
27%
3.72
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Al-Jazira xG
Total xG
2.80
1.30
Sharjah FC xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
27%
3.66
22%
4.49
Win to Nil
11%
8.90
7%
14.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.9 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.9 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.9 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Jazira vs Sharjah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Al-Jazira and Sharjah FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Al-Jazira and 1.30 for Sharjah FC, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Jazira vs Sharjah FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Jazira's recent record stands at 9W 2D 5L from 16 games, a 1.81 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Al-Jazira is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sharjah FC, meanwhile, have gone 9W 3D 4L across 16 games — 1.88 PPG, with W-W-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Sharjah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Jazira on 1.81 PPG, Sharjah FC on 1.88. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al-Jazira have managed 7W 0D 1L from 8 games — 2.62 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.81 PPG overall — Al-Jazira are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Sharjah FC's away record stands at 3W 3D 2L across 8 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Jazira come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Jazira are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Sharjah FC are on 1.50 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Jazira have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games; Sharjah FC in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Jazira
Blended
Sharjah FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Jazira and Sharjah FC in coming into this match?
Al-Jazira have gone 9W 2D 5L in their last 16 games (1.81 PPG), while Sharjah FC have gone 9W 3D 4L in their last 16 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Jazira at home or Sharjah FC away?
Al-Jazira's home record (2.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Jazira at home: 2.62 PPG; Sharjah FC away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Al-Jazira or Sharjah FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Jazira have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Sharjah FC in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 26 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Jazira have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Feb 2026, when Al-Jazira won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Jazira's record when hosting Sharjah FC specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Al-Jazira
4
Draws
2
Sharjah FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Jazira and Sharjah FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Jazira have won 4, Sharjah FC have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al-Jazira and Sharjah FC last play each other?
They last met on 26 February 2026, when Al-Jazira 5-0 Sharjah FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Jazira and Sharjah FC?
Al-Jazira have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Jazira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Sharjah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Jazira 50%, Sharjah FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Al-Jazira) and 50% (Sharjah FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Jazira keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Sharjah FC in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Jazira home games / Sharjah FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Jazira play Sharjah FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Al-Jazira's recent matches and 50% of Sharjah FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Jazira vs Sharjah FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Al-Jazira's matches and 50% of Sharjah FC's.
Do Al-Jazira and Sharjah FC tend to score early?
Al-Jazira have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Sharjah FC in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Jazira edge out Sharjah FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Jazira beat Sharjah FC 1-0 at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Jazira 1.50 xG and Sharjah FC 1.30 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sharjah FC landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Jazira attack 1.28 / defence 1.24 against Sharjah FC attack 0.86 / defence 1.08, drawn from 16/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Jazira 41% | Draw 27% | Sharjah FC 32%, with Al-Jazira to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Jazira 62%, Sharjah FC 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Jazira's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sharjah FC's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Jazira 1.81 PPG, Sharjah FC 1.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Jazira win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Jazira (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.