Al-Jazira 3-3 Khorfakkan – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Al-Jazira at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Jazira vs Khorfakkan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Jazira host Khorfakkan at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 10 May 2024 at 15:10 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Jazira — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al-Jazira, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium, Al-Jazira have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Khorfakkan have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Khorfakkan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Khorfakkan's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Jazira at 1.00 PPG versus Khorfakkan's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Al-Jazira have won 2, Khorfakkan 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 4.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2023, ended 2–4 with Khorfakkan winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Al-Jazira in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 55%.
Khorfakkan in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Jazira 77% and Khorfakkan 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Jazira 66% | Khorfakkan 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Jazira 1.91 xG and Khorfakkan 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Jazira attack 1.009 / defence 1.033 | Khorfakkan attack 0.792 / defence 1.238. League average goals — home 1.532 / away 1.674. Khorfakkan bring a strong defensive rating of 1.238 — this is suppressing Al-Jazira's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 47 Al-Jazira games / 47 Khorfakkan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Jazira 50% | Draw 22% | Khorfakkan 28%. Fair-value odds: Al-Jazira 2.00 | Draw 4.55 | Khorfakkan 3.57. Al-Jazira hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.91 / 1.37) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Jazira at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Jazira offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.28 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Jazira 90% | Khorfakkan 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Jazira vs Khorfakkan | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 10 May 2024, 15:10 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Jazira 50% | Draw 22% | Khorfakkan 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 64% | xG Al-Jazira 1.91 / Khorfakkan 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Jazira attack 1.009 / def 1.033 | Khorfakkan attack 0.792 / def 1.238 | league avg home 1.532 / away 1.674 • Poisson stance: Al-Jazira (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Al-Jazira xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Khorfakkan xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Jazira vs Khorfakkan kick off?
Al-Jazira vs Khorfakkan kicked off at 15:10 on Friday 10 May 2024 at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Jazira vs Khorfakkan?
Al-Jazira 3 - 3 Khorfakkan.
Where is Al-Jazira vs Khorfakkan being played?
The match is being played at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium.
What competition is Al-Jazira vs Khorfakkan part of?
Al-Jazira vs Khorfakkan is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Jazira vs Khorfakkan?
Our statistical model gives Al-Jazira a 50% chance of winning, Khorfakkan a 28% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al-Jazira the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Jazira vs Khorfakkan?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Al-Jazira and Khorfakkan will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Jazira vs Khorfakkan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Jazira and Khorfakkan?
Record (5 meetings): Al-Jazira 2W | Draws 1 | Khorfakkan 2W.
What form are Al-Jazira and Khorfakkan in?
Al-Jazira (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-D-D-W. Khorfakkan (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al-Jazira's attack rating (1.01) and Khorfakkan's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 1.91 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Khorfakkan's attack versus Al-Jazira's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Jazira Win
50%
1.99
22%
4.50
28%
3.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Al-Jazira xG
Total xG
3.28
1.37
Khorfakkan xG
1.99
50%
Home win
4.50
22%
Draw
3.64
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.74
Clean Sheet
25%
3.93
15%
6.78
Win to Nil
13%
7.82
4%
24.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 5.1 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 9.8 | 6.7 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 6.0 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Jazira vs Khorfakkan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Al-Jazira and Khorfakkan expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Al-Jazira and 1.37 for Khorfakkan, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Jazira vs Khorfakkan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 47 outings, Al-Jazira have picked up 1.55 PPG on a 21W 10D 16L record — L-D-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Jazira is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Khorfakkan's form line: 12W 10D 25L from 47 games, 0.98 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-L. The sample for Khorfakkan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Jazira are the form team by 0.57 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Khorfakkan.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al-Jazira have posted 1.65 PPG from 23 outings (11W 5D 7L).
On the road, Khorfakkan have gone 2W 7D 14L from 23 away games — 0.57 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.98 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Khorfakkan's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Jazira come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Jazira are averaging 1.96 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Khorfakkan are on 1.19 scored and 1.85 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Jazira have seen both teams score in 77% of their recent games.
Last 47 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Jazira
Blended
Khorfakkan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Jazira and Khorfakkan in coming into this match?
Al-Jazira have gone 21W 10D 16L in their last 47 games (1.55 PPG), while Khorfakkan have gone 12W 10D 25L in their last 47 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Jazira at home or Khorfakkan away?
Al-Jazira's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Jazira at home: 1.65 PPG; Khorfakkan away: 0.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Jazira and Khorfakkan runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 16 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Dec 2021, when Al-Jazira won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Jazira's record when hosting Khorfakkan specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Al-Jazira
2
Draws
4
Khorfakkan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Jazira and Khorfakkan?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Jazira have won 4, Khorfakkan have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Jazira and Khorfakkan last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2026, when Al-Jazira 3-1 Khorfakkan.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Jazira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Khorfakkan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al-Jazira at 70%, Khorfakkan at 61%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Al-Jazira) and 61% (Khorfakkan). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Khorfakkan in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Jazira home games / Khorfakkan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Jazira play Khorfakkan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Al-Jazira's games and 61% of Khorfakkan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Jazira vs Khorfakkan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Al-Jazira's matches and 61% of Khorfakkan's.
Do Al-Jazira and Khorfakkan tend to score early?
Al-Jazira have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Khorfakkan in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Jazira and Khorfakkan share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium, Regular Season - 19, as Al-Jazira and Khorfakkan drew 3-3 in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Jazira 1.91 xG and Khorfakkan 1.37 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Al-Jazira beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Khorfakkan outscored their 1.37 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Jazira attack 1.01 / defence 1.03 against Khorfakkan attack 0.79 / defence 1.24, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Jazira 50% | Draw 22% | Khorfakkan 28%, with Al-Jazira to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Jazira 66%, Khorfakkan 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Jazira's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 77% of their matches — today it did.
Khorfakkan's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Jazira arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Jazira (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.87 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Khorfakkan (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.