Al-Jazira 2-0 Baniyas SC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Al-Jazira at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Jazira vs Baniyas SC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium plays host to Al-Jazira versus Baniyas SC in Pro League, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Thursday 28 October 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Jazira's overall Pro League record this term: 4W 1D 2L from 7 games (1.86 PPG). Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 1.43 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets in 7 games (43%) reflects a solid defensive base. Al-Jazira have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium, Al-Jazira have gone 4W 0D 0L this season (4 games, 3.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.86 — Al-Jazira are significantly better at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Baniyas SC have collected 0.86 PPG across 7 Pro League outings this season: 1W 3D 3L. Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.43 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Baniyas SC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Baniyas SC have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 away fixtures this term (1.67 PPG). Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.67 exceeds their overall 0.86 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Al-Jazira's 1.86 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Baniyas SC's 0.86 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading
Al-Jazira half-time and goal-timing data (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Baniyas SC half-time and goal-timing data (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Jazira 57% versus Baniyas SC 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Jazira 57% | Baniyas SC 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Jazira 1.40 xG and Baniyas SC 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Jazira attack 1.106 / defence 0.980 | Baniyas SC attack 0.959 / defence 1.175. League average goals — home 1.077 / away 1.329. Data: 7 Al-Jazira games / 7 Baniyas SC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Jazira 38% | Draw 30% | Baniyas SC 31%. Fair-value odds: Al-Jazira 2.63 | Draw 3.33 | Baniyas SC 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Jazira at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Jazira if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Jazira 50% | Baniyas SC 100% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Jazira vs Baniyas SC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 28 Oct 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Jazira 38% | Draw 30% | Baniyas SC 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 56% | xG Al-Jazira 1.40 / Baniyas SC 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Jazira attack 1.106 / def 0.980 | Baniyas SC attack 0.959 / def 1.175 | league avg home 1.077 / away 1.329 • Poisson stance: Al-Jazira (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Al-Jazira xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Baniyas SC xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Jazira vs Baniyas SC kick off?
Al-Jazira vs Baniyas SC kicked off at 17:30 on Thursday 28 October 2021 at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Jazira vs Baniyas SC?
Al-Jazira 2 - 0 Baniyas SC.
Where is Al-Jazira vs Baniyas SC being played?
The match is being played at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium.
What competition is Al-Jazira vs Baniyas SC part of?
Al-Jazira vs Baniyas SC is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Jazira vs Baniyas SC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Jazira a 38% chance of winning, Baniyas SC a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Al-Jazira the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Jazira vs Baniyas SC?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Al-Jazira and Baniyas SC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Jazira vs Baniyas SC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Jazira and Baniyas SC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Jazira and Baniyas SC in?
Al-Jazira (all comps): 4W-1D-2L in 7 | 1.86 PPG | GF 1.43 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Baniyas SC (all comps): 1W-3D-3L in 7 | 0.86 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.43 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al-Jazira's attack rating (1.11) and Baniyas SC's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Baniyas SC's attack (0.96x) against Al-Jazira's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Jazira Win
38%
2.62
30%
3.28
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Al-Jazira xG
Total xG
2.65
1.25
Baniyas SC xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
25%
4.05
Win to Nil
11%
9.13
8%
12.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 8.8 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.4 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.7 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Jazira vs Baniyas SC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Al-Jazira and Baniyas SC expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Al-Jazira and 1.25 for Baniyas SC, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Jazira vs Baniyas SC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 7 outings, Al-Jazira have picked up 1.86 PPG on a 4W 1D 2L record — W-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al-Jazira, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Baniyas SC's form line: 1W 3D 3L from 7 games, 0.86 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-D. It's still early in the season for Baniyas SC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Al-Jazira are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Baniyas SC.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Al-Jazira have posted 3.00 PPG from 3 outings (3W 0D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.86 PPG overall — Al-Jazira are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Baniyas SC have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 away games — 1.67 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 0.86 PPG overall record — Baniyas SC travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Jazira come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Jazira are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Baniyas SC are on 1.00 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Jazira have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Jazira
Early Season
Baniyas SC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Jazira and Baniyas SC in coming into this match?
Al-Jazira have gone 4W 1D 2L in their last 7 games (1.86 PPG), while Baniyas SC have gone 1W 3D 3L in their last 7 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Jazira at home or Baniyas SC away?
Al-Jazira's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Jazira at home: 3.00 PPG; Baniyas SC away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Al-Jazira or Baniyas SC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Jazira have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Baniyas SC in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Al-Jazira go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Jazira won 0-4 on 19 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Jazira have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Baniyas SC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Al-Jazira
2
Draws
2
Baniyas SC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Jazira and Baniyas SC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Jazira have won 6, Baniyas SC have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Jazira and Baniyas SC last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Al-Jazira 4-1 Baniyas SC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Jazira and Baniyas SC?
Al-Jazira have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Jazira see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Baniyas SC see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Al-Jazira, 100% for Baniyas SC — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Al-Jazira and 67% for Baniyas SC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Jazira keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Jazira home games / Baniyas SC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Jazira play Baniyas SC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Al-Jazira's games and 100% of Baniyas SC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Jazira vs Baniyas SC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Al-Jazira's matches and 67% of Baniyas SC's.
Al-Jazira cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Baniyas SC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Jazira beat Baniyas SC 2-0 at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Jazira 1.40 xG and Baniyas SC 1.25 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Baniyas SC landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Jazira attack 1.11 / defence 0.98 against Baniyas SC attack 0.96 / defence 1.18, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Jazira 38% | Draw 30% | Baniyas SC 31%, with Al-Jazira to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Jazira 57%, Baniyas SC 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Jazira's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Baniyas SC's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Jazira arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 0.86. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Jazira (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Baniyas SC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.