Al-Jazira 3-2 Al-Ittihad Kalba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Jazira at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Jazira vs Al-Ittihad Kalba encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Al-Ittihad Kalba travel to Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium to take on Al-Jazira. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 15 March 2022, 13:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Jazira have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Al-Jazira, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Jazira's home record at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium: 8W 0D 1L from 9 Pro League appearances (2.67 PPG). They are averaging 2.11 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 9 home games (56%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.67 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Al-Jazira are significantly better at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ittihad Kalba stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad Kalba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's away record: 2W 3D 3L from 8 road trips in Pro League this season (1.12 PPG). Away from home they average 1.38 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Al-Jazira carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Al-Jazira, 0 for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 25 Aug 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Al-Jazira trading profile (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Al-Ittihad Kalba trading profile (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Jazira 44% versus Al-Ittihad Kalba 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Jazira 56% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Jazira 1.76 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Jazira attack 1.200 / defence 1.110 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 1.015 / defence 1.334. League average goals — home 1.103 / away 1.197. Al-Ittihad Kalba bring a strong defensive rating of 1.334 — this is suppressing Al-Jazira's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Al-Jazira games / 18 Al-Ittihad Kalba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Jazira 47% | Draw 23% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 29%. Fair-value odds: Al-Jazira 2.13 | Draw 4.35 | Al-Ittihad Kalba 3.45. Al-Jazira hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.76 / 1.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Jazira as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Jazira offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.11 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al-Jazira 44% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 62%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Jazira vs Al-Ittihad Kalba | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 15 Mar 2022, 13:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Jazira 47% | Draw 23% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 61% | xG Al-Jazira 1.76 / Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Jazira attack 1.200 / def 1.110 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 1.015 / def 1.334 | league avg home 1.103 / away 1.197 • Poisson stance: Al-Jazira (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Al-Jazira xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Jazira vs Al-Ittihad Kalba kick off?
Al-Jazira vs Al-Ittihad Kalba kicked off at 13:45 on Tuesday 15 March 2022 at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Jazira vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Al-Jazira 3 - 2 Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Where is Al-Jazira vs Al-Ittihad Kalba being played?
The match is being played at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium.
What competition is Al-Jazira vs Al-Ittihad Kalba part of?
Al-Jazira vs Al-Ittihad Kalba is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Jazira vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our statistical model gives Al-Jazira a 47% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad Kalba a 29% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al-Jazira the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Jazira vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Al-Jazira and Al-Ittihad Kalba will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Jazira vs Al-Ittihad Kalba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Jazira and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Jazira 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Ittihad Kalba 0W.
What form are Al-Jazira and Al-Ittihad Kalba in?
Al-Jazira (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Al-Ittihad Kalba (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Jazira's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against Al-Ittihad Kalba's defensive record (1.33x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.76. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ittihad Kalba's attack versus Al-Jazira's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Jazira Win
47%
2.11
23%
4.30
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Al-Jazira xG
Total xG
3.11
1.35
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
2.11
47%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
26%
3.85
17%
5.84
Win to Nil
12%
8.14
5%
19.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 10.6 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.3 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Jazira vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Al-Jazira and Al-Ittihad Kalba expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Al-Jazira and 1.35 for Al-Ittihad Kalba, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Jazira vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Jazira's recent record stands at 11W 2D 5L from 18 games, a 1.94 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Al-Jazira is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ittihad Kalba, meanwhile, have gone 4W 8D 6L across 18 games — 1.11 PPG, with L-L-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Al-Ittihad Kalba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Jazira by 0.83 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Ittihad Kalba heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al-Jazira have managed 7W 0D 1L from 8 games — 2.62 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.94 PPG overall — Al-Jazira are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's away record stands at 2W 3D 3L across 8 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Jazira come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Jazira are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad Kalba are on 1.11 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad Kalba in 61%.
Defensively: Al-Jazira have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Jazira
Blended
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Jazira and Al-Ittihad Kalba in coming into this match?
Al-Jazira have gone 11W 2D 5L in their last 18 games (1.94 PPG), while Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 4W 8D 6L in their last 18 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Jazira at home or Al-Ittihad Kalba away?
Al-Jazira's home record (2.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Jazira at home: 2.62 PPG; Al-Ittihad Kalba away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Al-Jazira or Al-Ittihad Kalba been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Jazira have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Al-Ittihad Kalba in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Jazira and Al-Ittihad Kalba runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Sep 2023, when Al-Jazira won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Jazira's record when hosting Al-Ittihad Kalba specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Al-Jazira
4
Draws
2
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Jazira and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Jazira have won 4, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al-Jazira and Al-Ittihad Kalba last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Al-Jazira 2-1 Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Who has won more matches between Al-Jazira and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Al-Jazira have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Jazira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Al-Ittihad Kalba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Jazira 50%, Al-Ittihad Kalba 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Al-Jazira) and 38% (Al-Ittihad Kalba).
On the defensive side: Al-Jazira keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Jazira home games / Al-Ittihad Kalba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Jazira play Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Al-Jazira's games and 62% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Jazira vs Al-Ittihad Kalba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Al-Jazira's recent games and 38% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Jazira and Al-Ittihad Kalba tend to score early?
Al-Jazira have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad Kalba in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Jazira edge out Al-Ittihad Kalba 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Jazira beat Al-Ittihad Kalba 3-2 at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Jazira 1.76 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.35 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Al-Jazira beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Jazira attack 1.20 / defence 1.11 against Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 1.01 / defence 1.33, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Jazira 47% | Draw 23% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 29%, with Al-Jazira to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Jazira 56%, Al-Ittihad Kalba 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Jazira's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Jazira arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.11. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Jazira (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.12 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Ittihad Kalba (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.