Al-Jazira 1-5 Ajman – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Jazira at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Jazira vs Ajman encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ajman make the trip to Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium to face Al-Jazira in Pro League, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Friday 8 December 2023 at 12:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Jazira have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: D L D L W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al-Jazira, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Jazira's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ajman's overall Pro League record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ajman, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Ajman have posted 3W 5D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Al-Jazira's favour (1.70 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Al-Jazira register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Ajman in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al-Jazira lead 1W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Mar 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Al-Jazira goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
Ajman goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Jazira 74% and Ajman 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Jazira 63% | Ajman 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Jazira 1.81 xG and Ajman 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Jazira attack 1.037 / defence 0.966 | Ajman attack 0.889 / defence 1.075. League average goals — home 1.627 / away 1.814. Data: 35 Al-Jazira games / 35 Ajman games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Jazira 43% | Draw 25% | Ajman 32%. Fair-value odds: Al-Jazira 2.33 | Draw 4.00 | Ajman 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.81 / 1.56) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Jazira are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Jazira if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.37 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Jazira 80% | Ajman 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Jazira vs Ajman | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 8 Dec 2023, 12:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Jazira 43% | Draw 25% | Ajman 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 68% | xG Al-Jazira 1.81 / Ajman 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Jazira attack 1.037 / def 0.966 | Ajman attack 0.889 / def 1.075 | league avg home 1.627 / away 1.814 • Poisson stance: Al-Jazira (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Al-Jazira xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Ajman xG
68%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Jazira vs Ajman kick off?
Al-Jazira vs Ajman kicked off at 12:45 on Friday 8 December 2023 at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Jazira vs Ajman?
Al-Jazira 1 - 5 Ajman.
Where is Al-Jazira vs Ajman being played?
The match is being played at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium.
What competition is Al-Jazira vs Ajman part of?
Al-Jazira vs Ajman is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Jazira vs Ajman?
Our statistical model gives Al-Jazira a 43% chance of winning, Ajman a 32% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Jazira the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Jazira vs Ajman?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Al-Jazira and Ajman will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Jazira vs Ajman have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Jazira and Ajman?
Record (4 meetings): Al-Jazira 1W | Draws 1 | Ajman 2W.
What form are Al-Jazira and Ajman in?
Al-Jazira (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-L-W. Ajman (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.40 | L5 D-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al-Jazira's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Ajman's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.81. Flip it around — Ajman's attack (0.89x) against Al-Jazira's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.56.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Jazira Win
43%
2.35
25%
3.92
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Al-Jazira xG
Total xG
3.37
1.56
Ajman xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.92
25%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.48
32%
BTTS No
3.08
Clean Sheet
21%
4.74
16%
6.13
Win to Nil
9%
11.14
5%
19.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 5.4 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 9.7 | 7.6 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.8 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.3 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Jazira vs Ajman?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Al-Jazira and Ajman expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Al-Jazira and 1.56 for Ajman, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Jazira vs Ajman?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Jazira's recent record stands at 18W 6D 11L from 35 games, a 1.71 PPG return, with D-L-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Al-Jazira is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ajman, meanwhile, have gone 14W 9D 12L across 35 games — 1.46 PPG, with D-D-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Ajman is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.71 PPG for Al-Jazira against 1.46 for Ajman. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al-Jazira have managed 9W 4D 5L from 18 games — 1.72 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ajman's away record stands at 7W 5D 6L across 18 trips, a 1.44 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Jazira are averaging 2.03 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Ajman are on 1.51 scored and 1.74 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Jazira have seen both teams score in 74% of their recent games; Ajman in 63%.
Last 35 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Jazira
Blended
Ajman
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Jazira and Ajman in coming into this match?
Al-Jazira have gone 18W 6D 11L in their last 35 games (1.71 PPG), while Ajman have gone 14W 9D 12L in their last 35 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Jazira at home or Ajman away?
Al-Jazira's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Jazira at home: 1.72 PPG; Ajman away: 1.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 5 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ajman won 1-5 on 8 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Jazira have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Ajman — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Al-Jazira
3
Draws
4
Ajman
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Jazira and Ajman?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Jazira have won 3, Ajman have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Jazira and Ajman last play each other?
They last met on 5 May 2026, when Ajman 1-1 Al-Jazira.
Who has won more matches between Al-Jazira and Ajman?
Ajman have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Jazira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Ajman are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Jazira 67%, Ajman 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al-Jazira) and 50% (Ajman).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Jazira home games / Ajman away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Jazira play Ajman?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Al-Jazira's games and 56% of Ajman's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Jazira vs Ajman usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Al-Jazira's recent games and 50% of Ajman's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Jazira and Ajman tend to score early?
Al-Jazira have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Ajman in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Ajman run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Al-Jazira.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajman beat Al-Jazira 1-5 at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Jazira 1.81 xG and Ajman 1.56 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Al-Jazira fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Ajman outscored their 1.56 projection by 3.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Jazira attack 1.04 / defence 0.97 against Ajman attack 0.89 / defence 1.07, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Jazira 43% | Draw 25% | Ajman 32%, with Al-Jazira to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Ajman win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Jazira 63%, Ajman 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Jazira's trading profile (35 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
Ajman's trading profile (35 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Jazira 1.71 PPG, Ajman 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ajman win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Jazira (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ajman (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.