Al-Dhafra 1-1 Al Nasr – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Nasr at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Dhafra vs Al Nasr encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Nasr make the trip to Al Dhafra Stadium to face Al-Dhafra in Pro League, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Thursday 30 December 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Al-Dhafra (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Dhafra, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Dhafra at Al Dhafra Stadium this season: 0W 2D 3L from 5 home games — 0.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al Nasr's overall Pro League record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W L W D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Al Nasr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Nasr's form when playing away from home: 3W 0D 3L across 6 road games this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.83 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
Al Nasr arrive in superior form — a 1.10 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading
Al-Dhafra half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Al Nasr half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Dhafra 54% versus Al Nasr 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Dhafra 46% | Al Nasr 91%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Dhafra 1.34 xG and Al Nasr 1.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Dhafra attack 0.912 / defence 1.356 | Al Nasr attack 1.071 / defence 1.239. League average goals — home 1.183 / away 1.243. Al Nasr bring a strong defensive rating of 1.239 — this is suppressing Al-Dhafra's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Al-Dhafra games / 11 Al Nasr games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Dhafra 26% | Draw 28% | Al Nasr 46%. Fair-value odds: Al-Dhafra 3.85 | Draw 3.57 | Al Nasr 2.17. Al Nasr hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.34 / 1.81) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Nasr at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Nasr if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.14 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Dhafra 80% | Al Nasr 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Dhafra vs Al Nasr | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Al Dhafra Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 30 Dec 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Dhafra 26% | Draw 28% | Al Nasr 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 64% | xG Al-Dhafra 1.34 / Al Nasr 1.81 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Dhafra attack 0.912 / def 1.356 | Al Nasr attack 1.071 / def 1.239 | league avg home 1.183 / away 1.243 • Poisson stance: Al Nasr (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Al-Dhafra xG
Expected Goals
1.81
Al Nasr xG
64%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Dhafra vs Al Nasr kick off?
Al-Dhafra vs Al Nasr kicked off at 13:00 on Thursday 30 December 2021 at Al Dhafra Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Dhafra vs Al Nasr?
Al-Dhafra 1 - 1 Al Nasr.
Where is Al-Dhafra vs Al Nasr being played?
The match is being played at Al Dhafra Stadium.
What competition is Al-Dhafra vs Al Nasr part of?
Al-Dhafra vs Al Nasr is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Dhafra vs Al Nasr?
Our statistical model gives Al-Dhafra a 26% chance of winning, Al Nasr a 46% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al Nasr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Dhafra vs Al Nasr?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Al-Dhafra and Al Nasr will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Dhafra vs Al Nasr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Dhafra and Al Nasr?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Dhafra and Al Nasr in?
Al-Dhafra (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Al Nasr (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al-Dhafra's attack rating (0.91) and Al Nasr's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al Nasr's attack (1.07x) against Al-Dhafra's defence (1.36x) — and the away total comes out at 1.81.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Nasr Win
26%
3.86
28%
3.56
46%
2.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Al-Dhafra xG
Total xG
3.14
1.81
Al Nasr xG
3.86
26%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
2.17
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.79
Clean Sheet
16%
6.09
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
4%
23.49
12%
8.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 7.8 | 7.0 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.4 | 9.4 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 7.0 | 6.3 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Dhafra vs Al Nasr?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Al-Dhafra and Al Nasr expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Al-Dhafra and 1.81 for Al Nasr, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Dhafra vs Al Nasr?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Dhafra come into this having played 11 games, going 1W 3D 7L for 0.55 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-L. The sample for Al-Dhafra is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Nasr sit at 1.55 PPG from 11 outings (5W 2D 4L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Al Nasr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Nasr carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Al-Dhafra — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Al-Dhafra's home form reads 0W 2D 3L across 5 games on their own ground, a 0.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Nasr have taken 1.80 points per game from 5 outings (3W 0D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Nasr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Dhafra are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Al Nasr are on 2.00 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Defensively: Al Nasr in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Dhafra
Blended
Al Nasr
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Dhafra and Al Nasr in coming into this match?
Al-Dhafra have gone 1W 3D 7L in their last 11 games (0.55 PPG), while Al Nasr have gone 5W 2D 4L in their last 11 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Dhafra at home or Al Nasr away?
Al Nasr's away record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Dhafra at home: 0.40 PPG; Al Nasr away: 1.80 PPG.
Have Al-Dhafra or Al Nasr been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Dhafra have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Al Nasr in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Al Nasr have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Dhafra have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al Nasr — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Al-Dhafra
2
Draws
3
Al Nasr
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Dhafra and Al Nasr?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Dhafra have won 1, Al Nasr have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Dhafra and Al Nasr last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Al-Dhafra 0-1 Al Nasr.
Who has won more matches between Al-Dhafra and Al Nasr?
Al Nasr have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Dhafra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Al Nasr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 80% for Al-Dhafra, 60% for Al Nasr — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Al-Dhafra and 100% for Al Nasr. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Nasr in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Dhafra home games / Al Nasr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Dhafra play Al Nasr?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Al-Dhafra's games and 60% of Al Nasr's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Dhafra vs Al Nasr usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Al-Dhafra's matches and 100% of Al Nasr's.
Do Al-Dhafra and Al Nasr tend to score early?
Al-Dhafra have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al Nasr in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Dhafra and Al Nasr share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Al Dhafra Stadium, Regular Season - 12, as Al-Dhafra and Al Nasr drew 1-1 in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Dhafra 1.34 xG and Al Nasr 1.81 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Al Nasr landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Dhafra attack 0.91 / defence 1.36 against Al Nasr attack 1.07 / defence 1.24, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Dhafra 26% | Draw 28% | Al Nasr 46%, with Al Nasr to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Dhafra 46%, Al Nasr 91%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Dhafra's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Al Nasr's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Nasr arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 0.55. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Dhafra (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line. Al Nasr (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.20 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.