Al-Dhafra 4-1 Al-Jazira – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Jazira (63%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Dhafra face Al-Jazira.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Al Dhafra Stadium plays host to Al-Dhafra versus Al-Jazira in Pro League, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Saturday 6 May 2023 at 15:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Dhafra have collected 0.10 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 0W 1D 9L. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Dhafra, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Dhafra's form when playing at home: 1W 0D 9L across 10 games at Al Dhafra Stadium this term (0.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Jazira (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: D W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Al-Jazira, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al-Jazira have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Al-Jazira arrive in superior form — a 1.60 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Al-Dhafra have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Al-Jazira in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Al-Jazira, who have claimed 3 wins from 3 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 24 Dec 2022, ended 2–3 with Al-Jazira winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Jazira have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Al-Dhafra half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Al-Jazira half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Dhafra 52% versus Al-Jazira 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Dhafra 52% | Al-Jazira 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Dhafra 1.28 xG and Al-Jazira 2.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Dhafra attack 0.791 / defence 1.458 | Al-Jazira attack 1.155 / defence 1.056. League average goals — home 1.527 / away 1.438. Al-Dhafra's attack strength of 0.791 is below the league average — the 1.28 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 50 Al-Dhafra games / 50 Al-Jazira games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Dhafra 19% | Draw 19% | Al-Jazira 63%. Fair-value odds: Al-Dhafra 5.26 | Draw 5.26 | Al-Jazira 1.59. The model has a clear lean to Al-Jazira (63%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.70. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.70 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.28 / 2.42) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Jazira at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.70 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Dhafra 60% | Al-Jazira 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Dhafra vs Al-Jazira | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Al Dhafra Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 6 May 2023, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Dhafra 19% | Draw 19% | Al-Jazira 63% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 66% | xG Al-Dhafra 1.28 / Al-Jazira 2.42 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Dhafra attack 0.791 / def 1.458 | Al-Jazira attack 1.155 / def 1.056 | league avg home 1.527 / away 1.438 • Poisson stance: Al-Jazira (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Al-Dhafra xG
Expected Goals
2.42
Al-Jazira xG
66%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Dhafra vs Al-Jazira kick off?
Al-Dhafra vs Al-Jazira kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 6 May 2023 at Al Dhafra Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Dhafra vs Al-Jazira?
Al-Dhafra 4 - 1 Al-Jazira.
Where is Al-Dhafra vs Al-Jazira being played?
The match is being played at Al Dhafra Stadium.
What competition is Al-Dhafra vs Al-Jazira part of?
Al-Dhafra vs Al-Jazira is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Dhafra vs Al-Jazira?
Our statistical model gives Al-Dhafra a 19% chance of winning, Al-Jazira a 63% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Al-Jazira the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Dhafra vs Al-Jazira?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Al-Dhafra and Al-Jazira will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Dhafra vs Al-Jazira have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Dhafra and Al-Jazira?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Dhafra 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Jazira 3W.
What form are Al-Dhafra and Al-Jazira in?
Al-Dhafra (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Al-Jazira (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al-Dhafra's attack rating (0.79) and Al-Jazira's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Jazira's attack (1.16x) against Al-Dhafra's defence (1.46x) — and the away total comes out at 2.42.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.7%), 1-3 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Jazira Win
19%
5.31
19%
5.40
63%
1.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.7%
Draw
1 – 3
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Al-Dhafra xG
Total xG
3.70
2.42
Al-Jazira xG
5.31
19%
Home win
5.40
19%
Draw
1.60
63%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.91
Clean Sheet
9%
11.26
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
2%
59.81
17%
5.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 6.0 | 7.3 | 5.9 | 3.5 | 1.7 |
| 1 | 3.2 | 7.7 | 9.3 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 2.2 |
| 2 | 2.0 | 4.9 | 5.9 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 1.4 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Dhafra vs Al-Jazira?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Al-Dhafra and Al-Jazira expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Al-Dhafra and 2.42 for Al-Jazira, a combined total of 3.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Dhafra vs Al-Jazira?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 50 outings, Al-Dhafra have picked up 0.60 PPG on a 7W 9D 34L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Dhafra is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Jazira's form line: 27W 7D 16L from 50 games, 1.76 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-W. The sample for Al-Jazira is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Jazira are the form team by 1.16 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Dhafra.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Al-Dhafra have posted 0.80 PPG from 25 outings (5W 5D 15L).
On the road, Al-Jazira have gone 9W 5D 11L from 25 away games — 1.28 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.76 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Jazira's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Jazira come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Dhafra are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.98 conceded per game recently; Al-Jazira are on 1.78 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Jazira in 62%.
Last 50 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Dhafra
Blended
Al-Jazira
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Dhafra and Al-Jazira in coming into this match?
Al-Dhafra have gone 7W 9D 34L in their last 50 games (0.60 PPG), while Al-Jazira have gone 27W 7D 16L in their last 50 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Dhafra at home or Al-Jazira away?
Al-Jazira's away record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Dhafra at home: 0.80 PPG; Al-Jazira away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Al-Dhafra or Al-Jazira been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Dhafra have kept a clean sheet in 4% of their recent games, Al-Jazira in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 10 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Al-Jazira go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Jazira won 0-3 on 15 Feb 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Dhafra have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al-Jazira — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Al-Dhafra
0
Draws
5
Al-Jazira
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Dhafra and Al-Jazira?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Dhafra have won 1, Al-Jazira have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Dhafra and Al-Jazira last play each other?
They last met on 10 March 2026, when Al-Dhafra 1-2 Al-Jazira.
Who has won more matches between Al-Dhafra and Al-Jazira?
Al-Jazira have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Dhafra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Al-Jazira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Dhafra 60%, Al-Jazira 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Al-Dhafra and 64% for Al-Jazira. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Dhafra have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Dhafra home games / Al-Jazira away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Dhafra play Al-Jazira?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Al-Dhafra's games and 68% of Al-Jazira's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Dhafra vs Al-Jazira usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Al-Dhafra's matches and 64% of Al-Jazira's.
Do Al-Dhafra and Al-Jazira tend to score early?
Al-Dhafra have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Al-Jazira in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Dhafra run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Al-Jazira.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Dhafra beat Al-Jazira 4-1 at Al Dhafra Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Dhafra 1.28 xG and Al-Jazira 2.42 xG, a combined 3.70. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Al-Dhafra beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Jazira landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Dhafra attack 0.79 / defence 1.46 against Al-Jazira attack 1.16 / defence 1.06, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Dhafra 19% | Draw 19% | Al-Jazira 63%, with Al-Jazira to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a Al-Dhafra win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Dhafra 52%, Al-Jazira 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Dhafra's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Jazira's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Jazira arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 0.60. Form was overturned, with Al-Dhafra winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Dhafra (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Jazira (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.