Al-Dhafra 0-3 Al-Jazira – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Al-Jazira at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Dhafra vs Al-Jazira encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Al Dhafra Stadium plays host to Al-Dhafra versus Al-Jazira in Pro League, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Tuesday 15 February 2022 at 13:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Dhafra have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Dhafra, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Dhafra's form when playing at home: 0W 3D 3L across 6 games at Al Dhafra Stadium this term (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Jazira (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L L W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Jazira, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al-Jazira have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Al-Jazira arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Al-Dhafra register both teams scoring in 83% of relevant games, Al-Jazira in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Al-Dhafra, 1 for Al-Jazira and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2021, ended 0–2 with Al-Jazira winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Al-Dhafra half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Al-Jazira half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Dhafra 62% and Al-Jazira 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Dhafra 38% | Al-Jazira 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Dhafra 1.21 xG and Al-Jazira 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Dhafra attack 0.916 / defence 1.257 | Al-Jazira attack 0.796 / defence 1.162. League average goals — home 1.134 / away 1.215. Data: 14 Al-Dhafra games / 13 Al-Jazira games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Dhafra 35% | Draw 29% | Al-Jazira 36%. Fair-value odds: Al-Dhafra 2.86 | Draw 3.45 | Al-Jazira 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Jazira at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Jazira if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.42 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Dhafra 83% | Al-Jazira 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Dhafra vs Al-Jazira | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Al Dhafra Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 15 Feb 2022, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Dhafra 35% | Draw 29% | Al-Jazira 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Al-Dhafra 1.21 / Al-Jazira 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Dhafra attack 0.916 / def 1.257 | Al-Jazira attack 0.796 / def 1.162 | league avg home 1.134 / away 1.215 • Poisson stance: Al-Jazira (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Al-Dhafra xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Al-Jazira xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Dhafra vs Al-Jazira kick off?
Al-Dhafra vs Al-Jazira kicked off at 13:30 on Tuesday 15 February 2022 at Al Dhafra Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Dhafra vs Al-Jazira?
Al-Dhafra 0 - 3 Al-Jazira.
Where is Al-Dhafra vs Al-Jazira being played?
The match is being played at Al Dhafra Stadium.
What competition is Al-Dhafra vs Al-Jazira part of?
Al-Dhafra vs Al-Jazira is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Dhafra vs Al-Jazira?
Our statistical model gives Al-Dhafra a 35% chance of winning, Al-Jazira a 36% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Al-Jazira the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Dhafra vs Al-Jazira?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Al-Dhafra and Al-Jazira will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Dhafra vs Al-Jazira have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Dhafra and Al-Jazira?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Dhafra 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Jazira 1W.
What form are Al-Dhafra and Al-Jazira in?
Al-Dhafra (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-D-L. Al-Jazira (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al-Dhafra's attack rating (0.92) and Al-Jazira's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Jazira's attack (0.80x) against Al-Dhafra's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 14/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Jazira Win
35%
2.83
29%
3.46
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Al-Dhafra xG
Total xG
2.42
1.22
Al-Jazira xG
2.83
35%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
10%
9.55
11%
9.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 10.8 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.0 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.9 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Dhafra vs Al-Jazira?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Al-Dhafra and Al-Jazira expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Al-Dhafra and 1.22 for Al-Jazira, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Dhafra vs Al-Jazira?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 13 outings, Al-Dhafra have picked up 0.62 PPG on a 1W 5D 7L record — D-L-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Dhafra is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Jazira's form line: 7W 2D 4L from 13 games, 1.77 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-W. The sample for Al-Jazira is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Jazira are the form team by 1.15 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Dhafra.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Al-Dhafra have posted 0.60 PPG from 5 outings (0W 3D 2L).
On the road, Al-Jazira have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 away games — 0.40 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.77 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Jazira's season.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Dhafra are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Al-Jazira are on 1.69 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Dhafra have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Al-Jazira in 62%.
Defensively: Al-Jazira in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Dhafra
Blended
Al-Jazira
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Dhafra and Al-Jazira in coming into this match?
Al-Dhafra have gone 1W 5D 7L in their last 13 games (0.62 PPG), while Al-Jazira have gone 7W 2D 4L in their last 13 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Dhafra at home or Al-Jazira away?
Al-Dhafra's home record (0.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Dhafra at home: 0.60 PPG; Al-Jazira away: 0.40 PPG.
Have Al-Dhafra or Al-Jazira been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Dhafra have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Al-Jazira in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 10 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Al-Jazira go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Jazira won 0-3 on 15 Feb 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Dhafra have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al-Jazira — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Al-Dhafra
0
Draws
5
Al-Jazira
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Dhafra and Al-Jazira?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Dhafra have won 1, Al-Jazira have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Dhafra and Al-Jazira last play each other?
They last met on 10 March 2026, when Al-Dhafra 1-2 Al-Jazira.
Who has won more matches between Al-Dhafra and Al-Jazira?
Al-Jazira have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Dhafra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Al-Jazira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for Al-Dhafra, 80% for Al-Jazira — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Al-Dhafra and 60% for Al-Jazira. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Dhafra home games / Al-Jazira away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Dhafra play Al-Jazira?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Al-Dhafra's games and 80% of Al-Jazira's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Dhafra vs Al-Jazira usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Al-Dhafra's matches and 60% of Al-Jazira's.
Do Al-Dhafra and Al-Jazira tend to score early?
Al-Dhafra have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al-Jazira in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Jazira run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Al-Dhafra.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Jazira beat Al-Dhafra 0-3 at Al Dhafra Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Dhafra 1.21 xG and Al-Jazira 1.22 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Al-Dhafra fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Al-Jazira outscored their 1.22 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Dhafra attack 0.92 / defence 1.26 against Al-Jazira attack 0.80 / defence 1.16, drawn from 14/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Dhafra 35% | Draw 29% | Al-Jazira 36%, with Al-Jazira to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Dhafra 38%, Al-Jazira 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Dhafra's trading profile (13 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Jazira's trading profile (13 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Jazira arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 0.62. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Dhafra (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Jazira (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.