Al-Dhafra 1-1 Al-Ittihad Kalba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Al-Dhafra take on Al-Ittihad Kalba.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 6 as Al-Dhafra welcome Al-Ittihad Kalba to Al Dhafra Stadium. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 28 September 2021 at 15:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Dhafra have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 outings — a 0.20 PPG return. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Al-Dhafra have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Ittihad Kalba — All Games: 0W 3D 2L from 5 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al-Ittihad Kalba have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.20 PPG (Al-Dhafra) versus 0.60 (Al-Ittihad Kalba). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Al-Dhafra in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they fail to score in 60% of games.
Al-Ittihad Kalba in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Dhafra 40% versus Al-Ittihad Kalba 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al-Dhafra 40% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 20%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Dhafra 1.19 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Dhafra attack 0.755 / defence 1.199 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.736 / defence 1.382. League average goals — home 1.139 / away 1.175. Al-Dhafra's attack strength of 0.755 is below the league average — the 1.19 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Ittihad Kalba bring a strong defensive rating of 1.382 — this is suppressing Al-Dhafra's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Al-Dhafra games / 5 Al-Ittihad Kalba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Dhafra 35% | Draw 37% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 28%. Fair-value odds: Al-Dhafra 2.86 | Draw 2.70 | Al-Ittihad Kalba 3.57. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 28% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.22 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al-Dhafra 40% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Dhafra vs Al-Ittihad Kalba | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Al Dhafra Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 28 Sep 2021, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Dhafra 35% | Draw 37% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 49% | xG Al-Dhafra 1.19 / Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Dhafra attack 0.755 / def 1.199 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.736 / def 1.382 | league avg home 1.139 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Al-Dhafra xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Dhafra vs Al-Ittihad Kalba kick off?
Al-Dhafra vs Al-Ittihad Kalba kicked off at 15:45 on Tuesday 28 September 2021 at Al Dhafra Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Dhafra vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Al-Dhafra 1 - 1 Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Where is Al-Dhafra vs Al-Ittihad Kalba being played?
The match is being played at Al Dhafra Stadium.
What competition is Al-Dhafra vs Al-Ittihad Kalba part of?
Al-Dhafra vs Al-Ittihad Kalba is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Dhafra vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our statistical model gives Al-Dhafra a 35% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad Kalba a 28% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Al-Dhafra vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Al-Dhafra and Al-Ittihad Kalba will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Dhafra vs Al-Ittihad Kalba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Dhafra and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Dhafra and Al-Ittihad Kalba in?
Al-Dhafra (all comps): 0W-1D-4L in 5 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Al-Ittihad Kalba (all comps): 0W-3D-2L in 5 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Dhafra's attack rating (0.76) and Al-Ittihad Kalba's defence rating (1.38), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ittihad Kalba's attack versus Al-Dhafra's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
35%
2.83
37%
2.72
28%
3.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Al-Dhafra xG
Total xG
2.22
1.04
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
2.83
35%
Home win
2.72
37%
Draw
3.60
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
30%
3.28
Win to Nil
13%
7.96
8%
11.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 11.2 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.3 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 7.9 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Dhafra vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Al-Dhafra and Al-Ittihad Kalba expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Al-Dhafra and 1.04 for Al-Ittihad Kalba, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Dhafra vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 5 outings, Al-Dhafra have picked up 0.20 PPG on a 0W 1D 4L record — L-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al-Dhafra, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's form line: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games, 0.60 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-D. It's still early in the season for Al-Ittihad Kalba, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Dhafra on 0.20 PPG, Al-Ittihad Kalba on 0.60. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Dhafra are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad Kalba are on 0.60 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad Kalba in 60%.
Last 5 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Dhafra
Early Season
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Dhafra and Al-Ittihad Kalba in coming into this match?
Al-Dhafra have gone 0W 1D 4L in their last 5 games (0.20 PPG), while Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 0W 3D 2L in their last 5 (0.60 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 26 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Nov 2025, when Al-Dhafra won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Dhafra's record when hosting Al-Ittihad Kalba specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Al-Dhafra
3
Draws
2
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Dhafra and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Dhafra have won 1, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Dhafra and Al-Ittihad Kalba last play each other?
They last met on 26 February 2026, when Al-Ittihad Kalba 1-1 Al-Dhafra.
Who has won more matches between Al-Dhafra and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Dhafra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Al-Ittihad Kalba see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Dhafra 40%, Al-Ittihad Kalba 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for Al-Dhafra and 20% for Al-Ittihad Kalba.
On the defensive side: Al-Dhafra have failed to score in 60% of games; Al-Ittihad Kalba in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Dhafra home games / Al-Ittihad Kalba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Dhafra play Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Al-Dhafra's recent matches and 60% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Dhafra vs Al-Ittihad Kalba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Al-Dhafra's recent games and 20% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Dhafra and Al-Ittihad Kalba tend to score early?
Al-Dhafra have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad Kalba in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Dhafra and Al-Ittihad Kalba share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Al Dhafra Stadium, Regular Season - 6, as Al-Dhafra and Al-Ittihad Kalba drew 1-1 in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Dhafra 1.19 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.04 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Dhafra attack 0.76 / defence 1.20 against Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.74 / defence 1.38, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Dhafra 35% | Draw 37% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 28%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Dhafra 40%, Al-Ittihad Kalba 20%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Dhafra's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Dhafra 0.20 PPG, Al-Ittihad Kalba 0.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al-Dhafra conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.