Al Bataeh 0-6 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Bataeh vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai make the trip to Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium to face Al Bataeh in Pro League, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Friday 4 November 2022 at 12:45 UTC.
Form
Al Bataeh (all games): 3W 0D 5L across 8 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.12 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.88 goals per game and conceding 1.62 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al Bataeh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Bataeh at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium this season: 0W 0D 3L from 3 home games — 0.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.33 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.00 lags behind their overall 1.12 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium this season.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: L D W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are 1.08 PPG clear of Al Bataeh in recent Pro League fixtures (2.20 vs 1.12). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading Data
Al Bataeh goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Bataeh 38% versus Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Bataeh 62% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Bataeh 0.90 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Bataeh attack 0.609 / defence 1.253 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.013 / defence 0.936. League average goals — home 1.579 / away 1.283. Al Bataeh's attack strength of 0.609 is below the league average — the 0.90 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 8 Al Bataeh games / 34 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Bataeh 21% | Draw 25% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 55%. Fair-value odds: Al Bataeh 4.76 | Draw 4.00 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Shabab Al Ahli Dubai as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al Bataeh 33% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Bataeh vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 4 Nov 2022, 12:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Bataeh 21% | Draw 25% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 48% | xG Al Bataeh 0.90 / Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: Al Bataeh attack 0.609 / def 1.253 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.013 / def 0.936 | league avg home 1.579 / away 1.283 • Poisson stance: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Al Bataeh xG
Expected Goals
1.63
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
48%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Bataeh vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai kick off?
Al Bataeh vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai kicked off at 12:45 on Friday 4 November 2022 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Bataeh vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Al Bataeh 0 - 6 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
Where is Al Bataeh vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai being played?
The match is being played at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What competition is Al Bataeh vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai part of?
Al Bataeh vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Bataeh vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our statistical model gives Al Bataeh a 21% chance of winning, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai a 55% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Shabab Al Ahli Dubai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Bataeh vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Al Bataeh and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai will score (BTTS).
Will Al Bataeh vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Bataeh and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Bataeh and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in?
Al Bataeh (all comps): 3W-0D-5L in 8 | 1.12 PPG | GF 0.88 / GA 1.62 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al Bataeh's attack rating (0.61) and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 0.90 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's attack (1.01x) against Al Bataeh's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.63.
These ratings are built from 8/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.5%), 0-2 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai Win
21%
4.81
25%
4.04
55%
1.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
0 – 2
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Al Bataeh xG
Total xG
2.53
1.63
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
4.81
21%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
1.83
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
20%
5.09
41%
2.46
Win to Nil
4%
24.52
22%
4.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 13.0 | 10.6 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.7 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 5.3 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Bataeh vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Al Bataeh and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Al Bataeh and 1.63 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Bataeh vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al Bataeh's recent record stands at 3W 0D 5L from 8 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Al Bataeh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, meanwhile, have gone 5W 1D 2L across 8 games — 2.00 PPG, with L-D-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shabab Al Ahli Dubai by 0.88 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Bataeh heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al Bataeh have managed 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — 0.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.12 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's away record stands at 2W 0D 1L across 3 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Bataeh are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are on 1.38 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 62%.
Last 8 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Bataeh
Blended
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Bataeh and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in coming into this match?
Al Bataeh have gone 3W 0D 5L in their last 8 games (1.12 PPG), while Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 5W 1D 2L in their last 8 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Bataeh at home or Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Bataeh at home: 0.00 PPG; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away: 2.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai won 0-6 on 4 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Bataeh have gone 0W 0D 4L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Al Bataeh
1
Draws
7
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Bataeh and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
From 8 meetings on record, Al Bataeh have won 0, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Bataeh and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1-1 Al Bataeh.
Who has won more matches between Al Bataeh and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Bataeh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Bataeh 33%, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Al Bataeh and 67% for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 33%; Al Bataeh have failed to score in 67% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Bataeh home games / Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Bataeh play Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Al Bataeh's recent matches and 67% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Bataeh vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Al Bataeh's matches and 67% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's.
Do Al Bataeh and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai tend to score early?
Al Bataeh have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Shabab Al Ahli Dubai run riot with a 0-6 hammering of Al Bataeh.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai beat Al Bataeh 0-6 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Bataeh 0.90 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.63 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 0-6 for 6 actual goals. Al Bataeh fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai outscored their 1.63 projection by 4.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Bataeh attack 0.61 / defence 1.25 against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.01 / defence 0.94, drawn from 8/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Bataeh 21% | Draw 25% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 55%, with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Bataeh 62%, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Bataeh's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al Bataeh (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 2.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.