Al Bataeh 0-1 Dibba Al-Fujairah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Bataeh at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Bataeh vs Dibba Al-Fujairah fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 23 as Al Bataeh welcome Dibba Al-Fujairah to Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 18 April 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Bataeh stand at 0W 5D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al Bataeh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Bataeh at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium this season: 0W 5D 5L from 10 home games — 0.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Dibba Al-Fujairah have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Dibba Al-Fujairah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Dibba Al-Fujairah have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.50 PPG (Al Bataeh) versus 0.80 (Dibba Al-Fujairah). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Al Bataeh, 0 for Dibba Al-Fujairah and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2022, ended 1–0 with Al Bataeh winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Al Bataeh trading profile (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Dibba Al-Fujairah trading profile (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Bataeh 59% versus Dibba Al-Fujairah 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Bataeh 73% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Bataeh 1.75 xG and Dibba Al-Fujairah 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Bataeh attack 0.913 / defence 1.385 | Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.756 / defence 1.261. League average goals — home 1.521 / away 1.439. Dibba Al-Fujairah bring a strong defensive rating of 1.261 — this is suppressing Al Bataeh's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Al Bataeh games / 22 Dibba Al-Fujairah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Bataeh 44% | Draw 23% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 33%. Fair-value odds: Al Bataeh 2.27 | Draw 4.35 | Dibba Al-Fujairah 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.75 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Bataeh as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Bataeh offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.26 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al Bataeh 70% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Bataeh vs Dibba Al-Fujairah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 18 Apr 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Bataeh 44% | Draw 23% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG Al Bataeh 1.75 / Dibba Al-Fujairah 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Al Bataeh attack 0.913 / def 1.385 | Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.756 / def 1.261 | league avg home 1.521 / away 1.439 • Poisson stance: Al Bataeh (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Al Bataeh xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Dibba Al-Fujairah xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Bataeh vs Dibba Al-Fujairah kick off?
Al Bataeh vs Dibba Al-Fujairah kicked off at 19:00 on Tuesday 18 April 2023 at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Bataeh vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Al Bataeh 0 - 1 Dibba Al-Fujairah.
Where is Al Bataeh vs Dibba Al-Fujairah being played?
The match is being played at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium.
What competition is Al Bataeh vs Dibba Al-Fujairah part of?
Al Bataeh vs Dibba Al-Fujairah is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Bataeh vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Our statistical model gives Al Bataeh a 44% chance of winning, Dibba Al-Fujairah a 33% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al Bataeh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Bataeh vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Al Bataeh and Dibba Al-Fujairah will score (BTTS).
Will Al Bataeh vs Dibba Al-Fujairah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Bataeh and Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Record (1 meetings): Al Bataeh 1W | Draws 0 | Dibba Al-Fujairah 0W.
What form are Al Bataeh and Dibba Al-Fujairah in?
Al Bataeh (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-D-L-D-L. Dibba Al-Fujairah (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al Bataeh's attack at 0.91x the league average against Dibba Al-Fujairah's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 1.75 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dibba Al-Fujairah's attack versus Al Bataeh's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Bataeh Win
44%
2.29
23%
4.34
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Al Bataeh xG
Total xG
3.26
1.51
Dibba Al-Fujairah xG
2.29
44%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.80
Clean Sheet
22%
4.51
17%
5.76
Win to Nil
10%
10.33
6%
17.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 5.8 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.2 | 7.6 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.9 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.2 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Bataeh vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Al Bataeh and Dibba Al-Fujairah expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Al Bataeh and 1.51 for Dibba Al-Fujairah, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Bataeh vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Bataeh's recent record stands at 4W 6D 12L from 22 games, a 0.82 PPG return, with D-D-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Al Bataeh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dibba Al-Fujairah, meanwhile, have gone 3W 3D 16L across 22 games — 0.55 PPG, with L-D-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Dibba Al-Fujairah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Bataeh on 0.82 PPG, Dibba Al-Fujairah on 0.55. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al Bataeh have managed 0W 5D 6L from 11 games — 0.45 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dibba Al-Fujairah's away record stands at 2W 1D 8L across 11 trips, a 0.64 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Bataeh are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 2.18 conceded per game recently; Dibba Al-Fujairah are on 0.68 scored and 1.86 conceded.
Last 22 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Bataeh
Blended
Dibba Al-Fujairah
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Bataeh and Dibba Al-Fujairah in coming into this match?
Al Bataeh have gone 4W 6D 12L in their last 22 games (0.82 PPG), while Dibba Al-Fujairah have gone 3W 3D 16L in their last 22 (0.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Bataeh at home or Dibba Al-Fujairah away?
Dibba Al-Fujairah's away record (0.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Bataeh at home: 0.45 PPG; Dibba Al-Fujairah away: 0.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 5 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Dibba Al-Fujairah have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Al Bataeh's record when hosting Dibba Al-Fujairah specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Al Bataeh
0
Draws
3
Dibba Al-Fujairah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Bataeh and Dibba Al-Fujairah?
From 4 meetings on record, Al Bataeh have won 1, Dibba Al-Fujairah have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Bataeh and Dibba Al-Fujairah last play each other?
They last met on 5 May 2026, when Dibba Al-Fujairah 2-1 Al Bataeh.
Who has won more matches between Al Bataeh and Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Dibba Al-Fujairah have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Bataeh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Dibba Al-Fujairah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Bataeh 73%, Dibba Al-Fujairah 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 73% (Al Bataeh) and 46% (Dibba Al-Fujairah). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 64% and 18% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Bataeh have failed to score in 27% of games; Dibba Al-Fujairah in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Bataeh home games / Dibba Al-Fujairah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Bataeh play Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 73% of Al Bataeh's recent matches and 36% of Dibba Al-Fujairah's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Bataeh vs Dibba Al-Fujairah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Al Bataeh's matches and 46% of Dibba Al-Fujairah's.
Do Al Bataeh and Dibba Al-Fujairah tend to score early?
Al Bataeh have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Dibba Al-Fujairah in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Dibba Al-Fujairah defy the odds to beat Al Bataeh 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dibba Al-Fujairah beat Al Bataeh 0-1 at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Bataeh 1.75 xG and Dibba Al-Fujairah 1.51 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al Bataeh fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Bataeh attack 0.91 / defence 1.39 against Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.76 / defence 1.26, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Bataeh 44% | Draw 23% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 33%, with Al Bataeh to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Dibba Al-Fujairah win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Bataeh 73%, Dibba Al-Fujairah 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Bataeh's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Dibba Al-Fujairah's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Bataeh 0.82 PPG, Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dibba Al-Fujairah win broke the near-deadlock. Al Bataeh (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.64 average — tighter than their form line. Dibba Al-Fujairah (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.