Al Bataeh 3-3 Baniyas SC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Baniyas SC at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Bataeh vs Baniyas SC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Bataeh host Baniyas SC at Sharjah Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 11 February 2023 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Al Bataeh — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Bataeh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Sharjah Stadium, Al Bataeh have gone 0W 1D 6L this season (7 games, 0.14 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 3.14 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.14 lags behind their overall 0.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Sharjah Stadium this season.
Across all Pro League games this season, Baniyas SC have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Baniyas SC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Baniyas SC away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Baniyas SC's 1.40 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Al Bataeh's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Al Bataeh have won 1, Baniyas SC 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 16 Sep 2022, ended 1–0 with Al Bataeh winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Al Bataeh in-play tendencies (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Baniyas SC in-play tendencies (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Bataeh 53% versus Baniyas SC 53%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al Bataeh 73% | Baniyas SC 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Bataeh 1.38 xG and Baniyas SC 2.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Bataeh attack 0.942 / defence 1.533 | Baniyas SC attack 1.115 / defence 0.953. League average goals — home 1.539 / away 1.469. Data: 15 Al Bataeh games / 41 Baniyas SC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Bataeh 20% | Draw 18% | Baniyas SC 62%. Fair-value odds: Al Bataeh 5.00 | Draw 5.56 | Baniyas SC 1.61. The model has a clear lean to Baniyas SC (62%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.89. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.89 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.38 / 2.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Baniyas SC as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.89 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 75% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate: Al Bataeh 57% | Baniyas SC 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Bataeh vs Baniyas SC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Sharjah Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Feb 2023, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Bataeh 20% | Draw 18% | Baniyas SC 62% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 69% | xG Al Bataeh 1.38 / Baniyas SC 2.51 • Poisson strength factors: Al Bataeh attack 0.942 / def 1.533 | Baniyas SC attack 1.115 / def 0.953 | league avg home 1.539 / away 1.469 • Poisson stance: Baniyas SC (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Al Bataeh xG
Expected Goals
2.51
Baniyas SC xG
69%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Bataeh vs Baniyas SC kick off?
Al Bataeh vs Baniyas SC kicked off at 13:30 on Saturday 11 February 2023 at Sharjah Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Bataeh vs Baniyas SC?
Al Bataeh 3 - 3 Baniyas SC.
Where is Al Bataeh vs Baniyas SC being played?
The match is being played at Sharjah Stadium.
What competition is Al Bataeh vs Baniyas SC part of?
Al Bataeh vs Baniyas SC is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Bataeh vs Baniyas SC?
Our statistical model gives Al Bataeh a 20% chance of winning, Baniyas SC a 62% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Baniyas SC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Bataeh vs Baniyas SC?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Al Bataeh and Baniyas SC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Bataeh vs Baniyas SC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Bataeh and Baniyas SC?
Record (1 meetings): Al Bataeh 1W | Draws 0 | Baniyas SC 0W.
What form are Al Bataeh and Baniyas SC in?
Al Bataeh (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Baniyas SC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al Bataeh's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Baniyas SC's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. The same calculation in reverse, Baniyas SC's attack versus Al Bataeh's defence, projects 2.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-2, at 8.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.0%), 1-3 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Baniyas SC Win
20%
5.07
18%
5.49
62%
1.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 3
7.4%
Away win
1 – 1
7.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Al Bataeh xG
Total xG
3.89
2.51
Baniyas SC xG
5.07
20%
Home win
5.49
18%
Draw
1.61
62%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
35%
Over 4.5
2.86
65%
Under 4.5
1.54
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.20
Clean Sheet
8%
12.30
25%
3.98
Win to Nil
2%
62.40
16%
6.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 5.1 | 6.4 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 1.7 |
| 1 | 2.8 | 7.1 | 8.9 | 7.4 | 4.7 | 2.3 |
| 2 | 1.9 | 4.9 | 6.1 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 1.6 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Bataeh vs Baniyas SC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.9%.
How many goals are Al Bataeh and Baniyas SC expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Al Bataeh and 2.51 for Baniyas SC, a combined total of 3.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Bataeh vs Baniyas SC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al Bataeh come into this having played 15 games, going 4W 2D 9L for 0.93 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-L. The sample for Al Bataeh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Baniyas SC sit at 1.20 PPG from 15 outings (5W 3D 7L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Baniyas SC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Bataeh on 0.93 PPG, Baniyas SC on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al Bataeh's home form reads 0W 1D 6L across 7 games on their own ground, a 0.14 PPG return. That actually lags their 0.93 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Baniyas SC have taken 1.43 points per game from 7 outings (3W 1D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Baniyas SC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Bataeh are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game recently; Baniyas SC are on 1.33 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 15 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Bataeh
Blended
Baniyas SC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Bataeh and Baniyas SC in coming into this match?
Al Bataeh have gone 4W 2D 9L in their last 15 games (0.93 PPG), while Baniyas SC have gone 5W 3D 7L in their last 15 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Bataeh at home or Baniyas SC away?
Baniyas SC's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Bataeh at home: 0.14 PPG; Baniyas SC away: 1.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Bataeh and Baniyas SC runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al Bataeh's record when hosting Baniyas SC specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Al Bataeh
4
Draws
1
Baniyas SC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Bataeh and Baniyas SC?
From 8 meetings on record, Al Bataeh have won 3, Baniyas SC have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al Bataeh and Baniyas SC last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Al Bataeh 0-1 Baniyas SC.
Who has won more matches between Al Bataeh and Baniyas SC?
Al Bataeh have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Bataeh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Baniyas SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Bataeh 57%, Baniyas SC 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 86% for Al Bataeh and 86% for Baniyas SC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 71% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Bataeh have failed to score in 43% of games; Baniyas SC in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Bataeh home games / Baniyas SC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Bataeh play Baniyas SC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Al Bataeh's games and 71% of Baniyas SC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Bataeh vs Baniyas SC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 86% of Al Bataeh's matches and 86% of Baniyas SC's.
Do Al Bataeh and Baniyas SC tend to score early?
Al Bataeh have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Baniyas SC in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Bataeh and Baniyas SC share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Bataeh and Baniyas SC finished level at 3-3 at Sharjah Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Bataeh 1.38 xG and Baniyas SC 2.51 xG, a combined 3.89. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Al Bataeh beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Bataeh attack 0.94 / defence 1.53 against Baniyas SC attack 1.11 / defence 0.95, drawn from 15/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Bataeh 20% | Draw 18% | Baniyas SC 62%, with Baniyas SC to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Bataeh 73%, Baniyas SC 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Bataeh's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Baniyas SC's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Bataeh 0.93 PPG, Baniyas SC 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al Bataeh (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Baniyas SC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.