Al Bataeh 1-3 Al-Wasl FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Wasl FC at 59% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Bataeh vs Al-Wasl FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al Bataeh and Al-Wasl FC meet at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 23 April 2025 at 14:55 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al Bataeh have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W D W D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Al Bataeh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Bataeh's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 games at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium this season.
Al-Wasl FC (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W L W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Al-Wasl FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Wasl FC away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Al Bataeh, 1.80 for Al-Wasl FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Al-Wasl FC, who have claimed 5 wins from 5 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.2 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 8 Dec 2024, ended 1–3 with Al-Wasl FC winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Wasl FC have won 5 of 5 previous encounters, and at 4.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Al Bataeh half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Al-Wasl FC half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Bataeh 68% and Al-Wasl FC 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al Bataeh 64% | Al-Wasl FC 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Bataeh 1.05 xG and Al-Wasl FC 1.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Bataeh attack 0.794 / defence 1.174 | Al-Wasl FC attack 1.260 / defence 0.896. League average goals — home 1.476 / away 1.324. Al Bataeh's attack strength of 0.794 is below the league average — the 1.05 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Wasl FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.260 — the away xG of 1.96 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 47 Al Bataeh games / 47 Al-Wasl FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Bataeh 20% | Draw 22% | Al-Wasl FC 59%. Fair-value odds: Al Bataeh 5.00 | Draw 4.55 | Al-Wasl FC 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Al-Wasl FC (59%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Wasl FC are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.01 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Al Bataeh 60% | Al-Wasl FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Bataeh vs Al-Wasl FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 23 Apr 2025, 14:55 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Bataeh 20% | Draw 22% | Al-Wasl FC 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 56% | xG Al Bataeh 1.05 / Al-Wasl FC 1.96 • Poisson strength factors: Al Bataeh attack 0.794 / def 1.174 | Al-Wasl FC attack 1.260 / def 0.896 | league avg home 1.476 / away 1.324 • Poisson stance: Al-Wasl FC (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Al Bataeh xG
Expected Goals
1.96
Al-Wasl FC xG
56%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Bataeh vs Al-Wasl FC kick off?
Al Bataeh vs Al-Wasl FC kicked off at 14:55 on Wednesday 23 April 2025 at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Bataeh vs Al-Wasl FC?
Al Bataeh 1 - 3 Al-Wasl FC.
Where is Al Bataeh vs Al-Wasl FC being played?
The match is being played at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium.
What competition is Al Bataeh vs Al-Wasl FC part of?
Al Bataeh vs Al-Wasl FC is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Bataeh vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Bataeh a 20% chance of winning, Al-Wasl FC a 59% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al-Wasl FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Bataeh vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Al Bataeh and Al-Wasl FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Bataeh vs Al-Wasl FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Bataeh and Al-Wasl FC?
Record (5 meetings): Al Bataeh 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Wasl FC 5W.
What form are Al Bataeh and Al-Wasl FC in?
Al Bataeh (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-D-D. Al-Wasl FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al Bataeh's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Al-Wasl FC's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.05. Flip it around — Al-Wasl FC's attack (1.26x) against Al Bataeh's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.96.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Wasl FC Win
20%
5.05
22%
4.62
59%
1.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Al Bataeh xG
Total xG
3.01
1.96
Al-Wasl FC xG
5.05
20%
Home win
4.62
22%
Draw
1.71
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
14%
7.10
35%
2.85
Win to Nil
3%
35.84
21%
4.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 9.7 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Bataeh vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Al Bataeh and Al-Wasl FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Al Bataeh and 1.96 for Al-Wasl FC, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Bataeh vs Al-Wasl FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 47 outings, Al Bataeh have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 15W 13D 19L record — W-D-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Al Bataeh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Wasl FC's form line: 30W 11D 6L from 47 games, 2.15 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-D. The sample for Al-Wasl FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Wasl FC are the form team by 0.92 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Bataeh.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Al Bataeh have posted 1.00 PPG from 23 outings (5W 8D 10L).
On the road, Al-Wasl FC have gone 14W 6D 3L from 23 away games — 2.09 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Wasl FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al Bataeh are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Al-Wasl FC are on 2.34 scored and 1.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Bataeh have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Wasl FC in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Bataeh
Blended
Al-Wasl FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Bataeh and Al-Wasl FC in coming into this match?
Al Bataeh have gone 15W 13D 19L in their last 47 games (1.23 PPG), while Al-Wasl FC have gone 30W 11D 6L in their last 47 (2.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Bataeh at home or Al-Wasl FC away?
Al-Wasl FC's away record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Bataeh at home: 1.00 PPG; Al-Wasl FC away: 2.09 PPG.
Have Al Bataeh or Al-Wasl FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Bataeh have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Al-Wasl FC in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Al-Wasl FC have won the last 8 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Wasl FC won 4-1 on 2 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Bataeh have gone 0W 0D 4L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Al-Wasl FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Al Bataeh
0
Draws
8
Al-Wasl FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Bataeh and Al-Wasl FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Al Bataeh have won 0, Al-Wasl FC have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Bataeh and Al-Wasl FC last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Al-Wasl FC 1-0 Al Bataeh.
Who has won more matches between Al Bataeh and Al-Wasl FC?
Al-Wasl FC have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Bataeh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al-Wasl FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 74% for Al Bataeh, 61% for Al-Wasl FC — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Al Bataeh and 74% for Al-Wasl FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 61% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Wasl FC in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Bataeh home games / Al-Wasl FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Bataeh play Al-Wasl FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Al Bataeh's games and 61% of Al-Wasl FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Bataeh vs Al-Wasl FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Al Bataeh's matches and 74% of Al-Wasl FC's.
Do Al Bataeh and Al-Wasl FC tend to score early?
Al Bataeh have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Al-Wasl FC in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Wasl FC cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Al Bataeh.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Wasl FC beat Al Bataeh 1-3 at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Bataeh 1.05 xG and Al-Wasl FC 1.96 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Al-Wasl FC outscored their 1.96 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Bataeh attack 0.79 / defence 1.17 against Al-Wasl FC attack 1.26 / defence 0.90, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Bataeh 20% | Draw 22% | Al-Wasl FC 59%, with Al-Wasl FC to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Bataeh 64%, Al-Wasl FC 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Bataeh's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Wasl FC's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Wasl FC arrived the stronger side — 2.15 PPG against 1.23. That form edge translated into the three points. Al Bataeh (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.