Al Bataeh 0-4 Al Wahda FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Wahda FC at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Bataeh vs Al Wahda FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Al Wahda FC travel to Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium to take on Al Bataeh. The game is scheduled for Sunday 2 October 2022, 14:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Al Bataeh — All Games: 2W 0D 1L from 3 Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W L W. They are averaging 1.33 goals per game and conceding 0.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 3 games (67%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Al Bataeh have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Wahda FC stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Al Wahda FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Wahda FC have posted 6W 2D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, Al Bataeh have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Profile
Al Bataeh in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time.
Al Wahda FC in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Bataeh 33% versus Al Wahda FC 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Bataeh 33% | Al Wahda FC 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Bataeh 1.35 xG and Al Wahda FC 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Bataeh attack 0.835 / defence 1.190 | Al Wahda FC attack 1.118 / defence 1.083. League average goals — home 1.492 / away 1.256. Data: 3 Al Bataeh games / 29 Al Wahda FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al Bataeh 29% | Draw 27% | Al Wahda FC 44%. Fair-value odds: Al Bataeh 3.45 | Draw 3.70 | Al Wahda FC 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.35 / 1.67) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Wahda FC are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al Bataeh (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Wahda FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.02 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Al Bataeh 33% | Al Wahda FC 80% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Bataeh vs Al Wahda FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Oct 2022, 14:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Bataeh 29% | Draw 27% | Al Wahda FC 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 62% | xG Al Bataeh 1.35 / Al Wahda FC 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Al Bataeh attack 0.835 / def 1.190 | Al Wahda FC attack 1.118 / def 1.083 | league avg home 1.492 / away 1.256 • Poisson stance: Al Wahda FC (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Al Bataeh xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Al Wahda FC xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Bataeh vs Al Wahda FC kick off?
Al Bataeh vs Al Wahda FC kicked off at 14:15 on Sunday 2 October 2022 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Bataeh vs Al Wahda FC?
Al Bataeh 0 - 4 Al Wahda FC.
Where is Al Bataeh vs Al Wahda FC being played?
The match is being played at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What competition is Al Bataeh vs Al Wahda FC part of?
Al Bataeh vs Al Wahda FC is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Bataeh vs Al Wahda FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Bataeh a 29% chance of winning, Al Wahda FC a 44% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al Wahda FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Bataeh vs Al Wahda FC?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Al Bataeh and Al Wahda FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Bataeh vs Al Wahda FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Bataeh and Al Wahda FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Bataeh and Al Wahda FC in?
Al Bataeh (all comps): 2W-0D-1L in 3 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 0.67 | L5 W-L-W. Al Wahda FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al Bataeh's attack rating (0.83) and Al Wahda FC's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Wahda FC's attack versus Al Bataeh's defence, projects 1.67 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (3/29 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Wahda FC Win
29%
3.40
27%
3.70
44%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Al Bataeh xG
Total xG
3.02
1.67
Al Wahda FC xG
3.40
29%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
2.30
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
19%
5.32
26%
3.85
Win to Nil
6%
18.09
11%
8.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 8.2 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.0 | 9.2 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.4 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Bataeh vs Al Wahda FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Al Bataeh and Al Wahda FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Al Bataeh and 1.67 for Al Wahda FC, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Bataeh vs Al Wahda FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Bataeh come into this having played 3 games, going 2W 0D 1L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Al Bataeh, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al Wahda FC sit at 0.33 PPG from 3 outings (0W 1D 2L), a run that reads D-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al Wahda FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Bataeh carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.67 PPG clear of Al Wahda FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Bataeh are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; Al Wahda FC are on 1.00 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Wahda FC in 67%.
Defensively: Al Bataeh have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Bataeh
Early Season
Al Wahda FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Bataeh and Al Wahda FC in coming into this match?
Al Bataeh have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 games (2.00 PPG), while Al Wahda FC have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 (0.33 PPG).
Have Al Bataeh or Al Wahda FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Bataeh have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their recent games, Al Wahda FC in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 5 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Oct 2022, when Al Wahda FC won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Bataeh's record when hosting Al Wahda FC specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Al Bataeh
1
Draws
5
Al Wahda FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Bataeh and Al Wahda FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Al Bataeh have won 2, Al Wahda FC have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Bataeh and Al Wahda FC last play each other?
They last met on 5 February 2026, when Al Wahda FC 2-2 Al Bataeh.
Who has won more matches between Al Bataeh and Al Wahda FC?
Al Wahda FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Bataeh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Al Wahda FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Bataeh 33%, Al Wahda FC 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Al Bataeh) and 67% (Al Wahda FC).
On the defensive side: Al Bataeh keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Al Wahda FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Bataeh home games / Al Wahda FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Bataeh play Al Wahda FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Al Bataeh's recent matches and 67% of Al Wahda FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Bataeh vs Al Wahda FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Al Bataeh's recent games and 67% of Al Wahda FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Bataeh and Al Wahda FC tend to score early?
Al Bataeh have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al Wahda FC in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al Wahda FC run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Al Bataeh.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Wahda FC beat Al Bataeh 0-4 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Bataeh 1.35 xG and Al Wahda FC 1.67 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Al Bataeh fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Al Wahda FC outscored their 1.67 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Bataeh attack 0.83 / defence 1.19 against Al Wahda FC attack 1.12 / defence 1.08, drawn from 3/29 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al Bataeh 29% | Draw 27% | Al Wahda FC 44%, with Al Wahda FC to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Bataeh 33%, Al Wahda FC 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Bataeh's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Wahda FC's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Bataeh arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.33. Form was overturned, with Al Wahda FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al Bataeh managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Wahda FC scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.