Al Bataeh 1-3 Al Nasr – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Al Nasr at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Bataeh vs Al Nasr encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 20 as Al Bataeh welcome Al Nasr to Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 21 April 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Bataeh have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al Bataeh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Bataeh have posted 4W 3D 3L at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al Nasr — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Nasr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Nasr have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Al Nasr's 2.20 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Al Bataeh's 1.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al Bataeh register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Al Nasr in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Al Bataeh, 0 for Al Nasr and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Nov 2023, ended 2–0 with Al Bataeh winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Al Bataeh trading profile (43 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Al Nasr trading profile (43 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Bataeh 63% versus Al Nasr 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Bataeh 70% | Al Nasr 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Bataeh 1.57 xG and Al Nasr 1.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Bataeh attack 1.087 / defence 1.033 | Al Nasr attack 1.082 / defence 0.925. League average goals — home 1.565 / away 1.768. Data: 43 Al Bataeh games / 45 Al Nasr games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Bataeh 31% | Draw 22% | Al Nasr 47%. Fair-value odds: Al Bataeh 3.23 | Draw 4.55 | Al Nasr 2.13. Al Nasr hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.55. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.55 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.57 / 1.98) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Al Bataeh dominate the H2H record, yet Al Nasr are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Al Nasr as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Nasr offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.55 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Bataeh 70% | Al Nasr 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Bataeh vs Al Nasr | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Apr 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Bataeh 31% | Draw 22% | Al Nasr 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 68% | xG Al Bataeh 1.57 / Al Nasr 1.98 • Poisson strength factors: Al Bataeh attack 1.087 / def 1.033 | Al Nasr attack 1.082 / def 0.925 | league avg home 1.565 / away 1.768 • Poisson stance: Al Nasr (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Al Bataeh xG
Expected Goals
1.98
Al Nasr xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Bataeh vs Al Nasr kick off?
Al Bataeh vs Al Nasr kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 21 April 2024 at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Bataeh vs Al Nasr?
Al Bataeh 1 - 3 Al Nasr.
Where is Al Bataeh vs Al Nasr being played?
The match is being played at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium.
What competition is Al Bataeh vs Al Nasr part of?
Al Bataeh vs Al Nasr is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Bataeh vs Al Nasr?
Our statistical model gives Al Bataeh a 31% chance of winning, Al Nasr a 47% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al Nasr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Bataeh vs Al Nasr?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Al Bataeh and Al Nasr will score (BTTS).
Will Al Bataeh vs Al Nasr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Bataeh and Al Nasr?
Record (3 meetings): Al Bataeh 2W | Draws 1 | Al Nasr 0W.
What form are Al Bataeh and Al Nasr in?
Al Bataeh (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Al Nasr (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al Bataeh's attack rating (1.09) and Al Nasr's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Nasr's attack versus Al Bataeh's defence, projects 1.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Nasr Win
31%
3.22
22%
4.61
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Al Bataeh xG
Total xG
3.55
1.98
Al Nasr xG
3.22
31%
Home win
4.61
22%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.46
32%
BTTS No
3.15
Clean Sheet
14%
7.21
21%
4.83
Win to Nil
4%
23.23
10%
10.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 8.9 | 8.8 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 7.0 | 6.9 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Bataeh vs Al Nasr?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Al Bataeh and Al Nasr expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Al Bataeh and 1.98 for Al Nasr, a combined total of 3.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Bataeh vs Al Nasr?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Bataeh come into this having played 43 games, going 12W 10D 21L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-W. The sample for Al Bataeh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Nasr sit at 1.26 PPG from 43 outings (15W 9D 19L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Al Nasr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Bataeh on 1.07 PPG, Al Nasr on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Al Bataeh's home form reads 4W 8D 10L across 22 games on their own ground, a 0.91 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Nasr have taken 0.95 points per game from 22 outings (5W 6D 11L).
Goals in Recent Form
Al Bataeh are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.93 conceded per game recently; Al Nasr are on 1.26 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Bataeh have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Bataeh
Blended
Al Nasr
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Bataeh and Al Nasr in coming into this match?
Al Bataeh have gone 12W 10D 21L in their last 43 games (1.07 PPG), while Al Nasr have gone 15W 9D 19L in their last 43 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Bataeh at home or Al Nasr away?
Al Nasr's away record (0.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Bataeh at home: 0.91 PPG; Al Nasr away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Al Bataeh or Al Nasr been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Bataeh have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Al Nasr in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 18 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Al Bataeh's record when hosting Al Nasr specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Al Bataeh
2
Draws
3
Al Nasr
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Bataeh and Al Nasr?
From 8 meetings on record, Al Bataeh have won 3, Al Nasr have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Bataeh and Al Nasr last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2026, when Al Nasr 1-1 Al Bataeh.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Bataeh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al Nasr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Bataeh 68%, Al Nasr 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Al Bataeh and 64% for Al Nasr. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Bataeh have failed to score in 27% of games; Al Nasr in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Bataeh home games / Al Nasr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Bataeh play Al Nasr?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Al Bataeh's games and 54% of Al Nasr's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Bataeh vs Al Nasr usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Al Bataeh's matches and 64% of Al Nasr's.
Do Al Bataeh and Al Nasr tend to score early?
Al Bataeh have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Al Nasr in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Nasr cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Al Bataeh.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Nasr beat Al Bataeh 1-3 at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Bataeh 1.57 xG and Al Nasr 1.98 xG, a combined 3.55. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Al Nasr outscored their 1.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Bataeh attack 1.09 / defence 1.03 against Al Nasr attack 1.08 / defence 0.93, drawn from 43/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Bataeh 31% | Draw 22% | Al Nasr 47%, with Al Nasr to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Bataeh 70%, Al Nasr 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Bataeh's trading profile (43 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Al Nasr's trading profile (43 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Bataeh 1.07 PPG, Al Nasr 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Nasr win broke the near-deadlock. Al Bataeh (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Nasr (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.41 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.