Al Ain 7-0 Al-Dhafra – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Al Ain at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Ain vs Al-Dhafra encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al Ain and Al-Dhafra meet at Hazza Bin Zayed Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 10 September 2022 at 14:45 UTC.
Form
Al Ain (all games): 7W 3D 0L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Al Ain have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Ain's form when playing at home: 8W 2D 0L across 10 games at Hazza Bin Zayed Stadium this term (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Dhafra have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L L W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al-Dhafra have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Dhafra have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Al Ain. A 1.00 PPG lead over Al-Dhafra (2.40 vs 1.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Al Ain, 0 for Al-Dhafra and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 May 2022, ended 1–0 with Al Ain winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Al Ain goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
Al-Dhafra goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Ain 48% versus Al-Dhafra 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Ain 41% | Al-Dhafra 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Ain 1.67 xG and Al-Dhafra 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Ain attack 1.157 / defence 0.884 | Al-Dhafra attack 0.954 / defence 1.011. League average goals — home 1.424 / away 1.386. Data: 27 Al Ain games / 27 Al-Dhafra games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al Ain 49% | Draw 25% | Al-Dhafra 26%. Fair-value odds: Al Ain 2.04 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Dhafra 3.85. Al Ain hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Ain are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Ain if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Al Ain 60% | Al-Dhafra 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (27 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Ain vs Al-Dhafra | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Hazza Bin Zayed Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Sep 2022, 14:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Ain 49% | Draw 25% | Al-Dhafra 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG Al Ain 1.67 / Al-Dhafra 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Al Ain attack 1.157 / def 0.884 | Al-Dhafra attack 0.954 / def 1.011 | league avg home 1.424 / away 1.386 • Poisson stance: Al Ain (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Al Ain xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Al-Dhafra xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Ain vs Al-Dhafra kick off?
Al Ain vs Al-Dhafra kicked off at 14:45 on Saturday 10 September 2022 at Hazza Bin Zayed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Ain vs Al-Dhafra?
Al Ain 7 - 0 Al-Dhafra.
Where is Al Ain vs Al-Dhafra being played?
The match is being played at Hazza Bin Zayed Stadium.
What competition is Al Ain vs Al-Dhafra part of?
Al Ain vs Al-Dhafra is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Ain vs Al-Dhafra?
Our statistical model gives Al Ain a 49% chance of winning, Al-Dhafra a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al Ain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Ain vs Al-Dhafra?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Al Ain and Al-Dhafra will score (BTTS).
Will Al Ain vs Al-Dhafra have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Ain and Al-Dhafra?
Record (2 meetings): Al Ain 2W | Draws 0 | Al-Dhafra 0W.
What form are Al Ain and Al-Dhafra in?
Al Ain (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-D-D. Al-Dhafra (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al Ain's attack at 1.16x the league average against Al-Dhafra's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.67 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Dhafra's attack (0.95x) against Al Ain's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
The sample (27/27 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Ain Win
49%
2.06
25%
3.99
26%
3.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Al Ain xG
Total xG
2.83
1.17
Al-Dhafra xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
3.79
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
19%
5.29
Win to Nil
15%
6.63
5%
20.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.4 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Ain vs Al-Dhafra?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Al Ain and Al-Dhafra expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Al Ain and 1.17 for Al-Dhafra, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Ain vs Al-Dhafra?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 27 outings, Al Ain have picked up 2.44 PPG on a 20W 6D 1L record — W-W-W-D-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al Ain, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Dhafra's form line: 5W 8D 14L from 27 games, 0.85 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for Al-Dhafra, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Al Ain are the form team by 1.59 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Dhafra.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al Ain have posted 2.54 PPG from 13 outings (10W 3D 0L).
On the road, Al-Dhafra have gone 2W 3D 8L from 13 away games — 0.69 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Ain come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Ain are averaging 2.15 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; Al-Dhafra are on 1.00 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Defensively: Al Ain have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Ain
Early Season
Al-Dhafra
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Ain and Al-Dhafra in coming into this match?
Al Ain have gone 20W 6D 1L in their last 27 games (2.44 PPG), while Al-Dhafra have gone 5W 8D 14L in their last 27 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Ain at home or Al-Dhafra away?
Al Ain's home record (2.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Ain at home: 2.54 PPG; Al-Dhafra away: 0.69 PPG.
Have Al Ain or Al-Dhafra been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Ain have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Al-Dhafra in 7%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Al Ain have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Ain won 7-0 on 10 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Ain have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al-Dhafra — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
6
Al Ain
0
Draws
0
Al-Dhafra
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Ain and Al-Dhafra?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Ain have won 6, Al-Dhafra have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Ain and Al-Dhafra last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Al Ain 5-0 Al-Dhafra.
Who has won more matches between Al Ain and Al-Dhafra?
Al Ain have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Ain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Al-Dhafra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Ain 62%, Al-Dhafra 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Al Ain) and 38% (Al-Dhafra).
On the defensive side: Al Ain keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Al-Dhafra in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Ain home games / Al-Dhafra away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Ain play Al-Dhafra?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Al Ain's recent matches and 46% of Al-Dhafra's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Ain vs Al-Dhafra usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Al Ain's recent games and 38% of Al-Dhafra's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Ain and Al-Dhafra tend to score early?
Al Ain have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Al-Dhafra in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al Ain run riot with a 7-0 hammering of Al-Dhafra.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Ain beat Al-Dhafra 7-0 at Hazza Bin Zayed Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Ain 1.67 xG and Al-Dhafra 1.17 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 7-0 for 7 actual goals. Al Ain beat their projection by 5.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Dhafra landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Ain attack 1.16 / defence 0.88 against Al-Dhafra attack 0.95 / defence 1.01, drawn from 27/27 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al Ain 49% | Draw 25% | Al-Dhafra 26%, with Al Ain to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Ain 41%, Al-Dhafra 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Ain's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al-Dhafra's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Ain arrived the stronger side — 2.44 PPG against 0.85. That form edge translated into the three points. Al Ain (home/away splits) scored 7 against a 2.31 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Dhafra (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 7 against a 1.54 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.