Ajman 1-3 Al-Wasl FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ajman at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ajman vs Al-Wasl FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ajman host Al-Wasl FC at Ajman Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 11 April 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Ajman — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ajman, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Ajman Stadium, Ajman have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Wasl FC have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Wasl FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Wasl FC's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Ajman at 1.10 PPG versus Al-Wasl FC's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, Ajman have won 2, Al-Wasl FC 3, with 4 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Ajman in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Al-Wasl FC in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ajman 49% versus Al-Wasl FC 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ajman 49% | Al-Wasl FC 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ajman 1.38 xG and Al-Wasl FC 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajman attack 0.856 / defence 0.957 | Al-Wasl FC attack 0.814 / defence 1.110. League average goals — home 1.455 / away 1.364. Data: 47 Ajman games / 47 Al-Wasl FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ajman 44% | Draw 27% | Al-Wasl FC 29%. Fair-value odds: Ajman 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Wasl FC 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ajman at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ajman offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Ajman 40% | Al-Wasl FC 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ajman vs Al-Wasl FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Ajman Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Apr 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ajman 44% | Draw 27% | Al-Wasl FC 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Ajman 1.38 / Al-Wasl FC 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Ajman attack 0.856 / def 0.957 | Al-Wasl FC attack 0.814 / def 1.110 | league avg home 1.455 / away 1.364 • Poisson stance: Ajman (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Ajman xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Al-Wasl FC xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ajman vs Al-Wasl FC kick off?
Ajman vs Al-Wasl FC kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 11 April 2026 at Ajman Stadium.
What was the final score in Ajman vs Al-Wasl FC?
Ajman 1 - 3 Al-Wasl FC.
Where is Ajman vs Al-Wasl FC being played?
The match is being played at Ajman Stadium.
What competition is Ajman vs Al-Wasl FC part of?
Ajman vs Al-Wasl FC is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Ajman vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our statistical model gives Ajman a 44% chance of winning, Al-Wasl FC a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Ajman the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ajman vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Ajman and Al-Wasl FC will score (BTTS).
Will Ajman vs Al-Wasl FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ajman and Al-Wasl FC?
Record (9 meetings): Ajman 2W | Draws 4 | Al-Wasl FC 3W.
What form are Ajman and Al-Wasl FC in?
Ajman (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Al-Wasl FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Ajman's attack at 0.86x the league average against Al-Wasl FC's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Wasl FC's attack versus Ajman's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajman Win
44%
2.26
27%
3.71
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Ajman xG
Total xG
2.45
1.06
Al-Wasl FC xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
15%
6.54
7%
13.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.7 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.8 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ajman vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Ajman and Al-Wasl FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Ajman and 1.06 for Al-Wasl FC, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Ajman vs Al-Wasl FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 47 outings, Ajman have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 16W 7D 24L record — W-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Ajman is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Wasl FC's form line: 22W 13D 12L from 47 games, 1.68 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-L. The sample for Al-Wasl FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Wasl FC are the form team by 0.51 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ajman.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Ajman have posted 1.35 PPG from 23 outings (9W 4D 10L).
On the road, Al-Wasl FC have gone 7W 7D 9L from 23 away games — 1.22 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.68 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Wasl FC's season.
The Goals Picture
Ajman are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Al-Wasl FC are on 1.62 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ajman
Blended
Al-Wasl FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ajman and Al-Wasl FC in coming into this match?
Ajman have gone 16W 7D 24L in their last 47 games (1.17 PPG), while Al-Wasl FC have gone 22W 13D 12L in their last 47 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ajman at home or Al-Wasl FC away?
Ajman's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ajman at home: 1.35 PPG; Al-Wasl FC away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Ajman or Al-Wasl FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ajman have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Al-Wasl FC in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ajman and Al-Wasl FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Apr 2024, when Al-Wasl FC won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ajman's record when hosting Al-Wasl FC specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Ajman
4
Draws
4
Al-Wasl FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ajman and Al-Wasl FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Ajman have won 2, Al-Wasl FC have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Ajman and Al-Wasl FC last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Ajman 1-3 Al-Wasl FC.
Who has won more matches between Ajman and Al-Wasl FC?
Al-Wasl FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ajman are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Al-Wasl FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Ajman at 65%, Al-Wasl FC at 65%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Ajman and 65% for Al-Wasl FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ajman have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ajman home games / Al-Wasl FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ajman play Al-Wasl FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Ajman's games and 65% of Al-Wasl FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ajman vs Al-Wasl FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Ajman's matches and 65% of Al-Wasl FC's.
Do Ajman and Al-Wasl FC tend to score early?
Ajman have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Al-Wasl FC in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Wasl FC cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Ajman.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Wasl FC beat Ajman 1-3 at Ajman Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajman 1.38 xG and Al-Wasl FC 1.06 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Al-Wasl FC outscored their 1.06 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajman attack 0.86 / defence 0.96 against Al-Wasl FC attack 0.81 / defence 1.11, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ajman 44% | Draw 27% | Al-Wasl FC 29%, with Ajman to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Al-Wasl FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajman 49%, Al-Wasl FC 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ajman's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Wasl FC's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Wasl FC arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.17. Form held, and they took the win. Ajman (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Wasl FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.