Zorya Luhansk 0-1 Polessya – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Polessya at 44% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Zorya Luhansk vs Polessya encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Polessya travel to Stadion Livyi Bereh to take on Zorya Luhansk in Premier League (matchday 12). The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 October 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Zorya Luhansk — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Zorya Luhansk have gone 6W 1D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Zorya Luhansk are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Polessya have recorded 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Polessya's away record over their last 7 away games: 4W 1D 2L (1.86 PPG). Away from home they average 1.57 goals scored and 0.57 conceded per game. 4 away clean sheets from their last 7 away games (57%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Polessya — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Zorya Luhansk's 30% BTTS rate and Polessya's 29% (from Zorya Luhansk's last 10 home games and Polessya's last 7 away games) are both low — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
In-Play Profile
Zorya Luhansk in-play tendencies (last 11 games, 3 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games.
Polessya in-play tendencies (last 11 games, 3 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 46% of their matches; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zorya Luhansk 54% versus Polessya 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zorya Luhansk 54% | Polessya 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zorya Luhansk 0.84 xG and Polessya 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zorya Luhansk attack 0.918 / defence 0.964 | Polessya attack 1.036 / defence 0.806. League average goals — home 1.143 / away 1.232. Data: built from Zorya Luhansk's last 39 games and Polessya's last 11.
Result probabilities: Zorya Luhansk 25% | Draw 31% | Polessya 44%. Fair-value odds: Zorya Luhansk 4.06 | Draw 3.23 | Polessya 2.25. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Polessya as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Polessya offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.08 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Zorya Luhansk 30% (last 10 home games) | Polessya 29% (last 7 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zorya Luhansk vs Polessya | Competition: Premier League, matchday 12 | Venue: Stadion Livyi Bereh • Kick-off: Saturday 28 October 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zorya Luhansk 25% | Draw 31% | Polessya 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% (Under 66%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG Zorya Luhansk 0.84 / Polessya 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Zorya Luhansk attack 0.918 / def 0.964 | Polessya attack 1.036 / def 0.806 | league avg home 1.143 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: Polessya (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Zorya Luhansk xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Polessya xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Zorya Luhansk vs Polessya FAQs
What time does Zorya Luhansk vs Polessya kick off?
Zorya Luhansk vs Polessya kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 28 October 2023 at Stadion Livyi Bereh.
What was the final score in Zorya Luhansk vs Polessya?
Zorya Luhansk 0 - 1 Polessya.
Where is Zorya Luhansk vs Polessya being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Livyi Bereh.
What competition is Zorya Luhansk vs Polessya part of?
Zorya Luhansk vs Polessya is a Premier League fixture (matchday 12) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Zorya Luhansk vs Polessya?
Our statistical model gives Zorya Luhansk a 25% chance of winning, Polessya a 44% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Polessya the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zorya Luhansk vs Polessya?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Zorya Luhansk and Polessya will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will Zorya Luhansk vs Polessya have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (66%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Zorya Luhansk's attack at 0.92x the league average against Polessya's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 0.84 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Polessya's attack versus Zorya Luhansk's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Zorya Luhansk's last 39 games and Polessya's last 11 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 0-1 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Polessya Win
25%
4.06
31%
3.23
44%
2.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Zorya Luhansk xG
Total xG
2.08
1.23
Polessya xG
4.06
25%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
2.25
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
43%
2.33
Win to Nil
7%
13.87
19%
5.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 15.4 | 9.5 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.0 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Zorya Luhansk vs Polessya Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Zorya Luhansk vs Polessya?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Zorya Luhansk and Polessya expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Zorya Luhansk and 1.23 for Polessya, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Zorya Luhansk vs Polessya?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Zorya Luhansk's recent record stands at 4W 3D 4L from 11 games, a 1.36 PPG return, with D-L-L-D-W in the last five.
Polessya, meanwhile, have gone 7W 1D 3L across 11 games — 2.00 PPG, with L-W-D-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Polessya by 0.64 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Zorya Luhansk heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Zorya Luhansk have managed 0W 1D 2L from their last 3 home games — 0.33 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.36 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Polessya's away record stands at 1W 1D 1L across their last 3 away games, a 1.33 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Polessya's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Polessya come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Zorya Luhansk are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Polessya are on 1.64 scored and 0.73 conceded.
Defensively: Zorya Luhansk have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Polessya in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zorya Luhansk
Blended
Polessya
Blended
Zorya Luhansk (Home) vs Polessya (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Zorya Luhansk
Blended
Polessya
Blended
❓ Zorya Luhansk vs Polessya Form FAQs
What form are Zorya Luhansk and Polessya in coming into this match?
Zorya Luhansk have gone 4W 3D 4L in their last 11 games (1.36 PPG), while Polessya have gone 7W 1D 3L in their last 11 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zorya Luhansk at home or Polessya away?
Polessya's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zorya Luhansk at home: 0.33 PPG; Polessya away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Zorya Luhansk or Polessya been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zorya Luhansk have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Polessya in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 7 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2023. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 17 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Zorya Luhansk's record when hosting Polessya specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Zorya Luhansk
3
Draws
3
Polessya
Recent Meetings
❓ Zorya Luhansk vs Polessya H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Zorya Luhansk and Polessya?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Zorya Luhansk have won 1, Polessya have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Zorya Luhansk and Polessya last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 August 2026: Polessya 1-2 Zorya Luhansk.
Who has won more matches between Zorya Luhansk and Polessya?
Polessya have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Zorya Luhansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Polessya are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Zorya Luhansk 33% BTTS, Polessya 0%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Zorya Luhansk and 33% for Polessya.
On the defensive side: Zorya Luhansk keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Polessya in 67%; Zorya Luhansk have failed to score in 67% of games; Polessya in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zorya Luhansk home games / Polessya away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Zorya Luhansk vs Polessya Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Zorya Luhansk and Polessya matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Zorya Luhansk's recent matches and 0% of Polessya's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Zorya Luhansk and Polessya matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Zorya Luhansk's recent games and 33% of Polessya's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zorya Luhansk and Polessya matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Zorya Luhansk's recent matches and 67% of Polessya's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Polessya edge out Zorya Luhansk 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Polessya beat Zorya Luhansk 0-1 at Stadion Livyi Bereh, Regular Season - 12, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zorya Luhansk 0.84 xG and Polessya 1.23 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Zorya Luhansk fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zorya Luhansk attack 0.92 / defence 0.96 against Polessya attack 1.04 / defence 0.81, drawn from 39/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zorya Luhansk 25% | Draw 31% | Polessya 44%, with Polessya to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zorya Luhansk 54%, Polessya 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zorya Luhansk's trading profile (11 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Polessya's trading profile (11 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Polessya arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.36. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.