Zorya Luhansk 2-1 FC Kharkiv – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Zorya Luhansk (52%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Zorya Luhansk face FC Kharkiv.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Zorya Luhansk host FC Kharkiv at Stadion Livyi Bereh in Premier League, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 31 March 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Zorya Luhansk — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D W D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Zorya Luhansk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zorya Luhansk's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Stadion Livyi Bereh this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Livyi Bereh. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Premier League games this season, FC Kharkiv have recorded 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Kharkiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Kharkiv's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
On current form, Zorya Luhansk have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Zorya Luhansk, 1 for FC Kharkiv and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 Sep 2023, ended 1–2 with FC Kharkiv winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Zorya Luhansk in-play and half-time data (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
FC Kharkiv in-play and half-time data (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zorya Luhansk 48% versus FC Kharkiv 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zorya Luhansk 60% | FC Kharkiv 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zorya Luhansk 1.44 xG and FC Kharkiv 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zorya Luhansk attack 1.009 / defence 0.786 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.861 / defence 1.344. League average goals — home 1.065 / away 1.230. FC Kharkiv bring a strong defensive rating of 1.344 — this is suppressing Zorya Luhansk's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Zorya Luhansk's defence rating of 0.786 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 48 Zorya Luhansk games / 51 FC Kharkiv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zorya Luhansk 52% | Draw 27% | FC Kharkiv 22%. Fair-value odds: Zorya Luhansk 1.92 | Draw 3.70 | FC Kharkiv 4.55. Zorya Luhansk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Zorya Luhansk are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zorya Luhansk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.28 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Zorya Luhansk 20% | FC Kharkiv 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zorya Luhansk vs FC Kharkiv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadion Livyi Bereh • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Mar 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zorya Luhansk 52% | Draw 27% | FC Kharkiv 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 43% | xG Zorya Luhansk 1.44 / FC Kharkiv 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Zorya Luhansk attack 1.009 / def 0.786 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.861 / def 1.344 | league avg home 1.065 / away 1.230 • Poisson stance: Zorya Luhansk (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Zorya Luhansk xG
Expected Goals
0.83
FC Kharkiv xG
43%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zorya Luhansk vs FC Kharkiv kick off?
Zorya Luhansk vs FC Kharkiv kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 31 March 2024 at Stadion Livyi Bereh.
What was the final score in Zorya Luhansk vs FC Kharkiv?
Zorya Luhansk 2 - 1 FC Kharkiv.
Where is Zorya Luhansk vs FC Kharkiv being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Livyi Bereh.
What competition is Zorya Luhansk vs FC Kharkiv part of?
Zorya Luhansk vs FC Kharkiv is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Zorya Luhansk vs FC Kharkiv?
Our statistical model gives Zorya Luhansk a 52% chance of winning, FC Kharkiv a 22% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Zorya Luhansk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zorya Luhansk vs FC Kharkiv?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Zorya Luhansk and FC Kharkiv will score (BTTS).
Will Zorya Luhansk vs FC Kharkiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zorya Luhansk and FC Kharkiv?
Record (4 meetings): Zorya Luhansk 3W | Draws 0 | FC Kharkiv 1W.
What form are Zorya Luhansk and FC Kharkiv in?
Zorya Luhansk (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-D-W-L. FC Kharkiv (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Zorya Luhansk's attack rating (1.01) and FC Kharkiv's defence rating (1.34), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Kharkiv's attack versus Zorya Luhansk's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.2%), 0-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zorya Luhansk Win
52%
1.94
27%
3.72
22%
4.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Zorya Luhansk xG
Total xG
2.28
0.83
FC Kharkiv xG
1.94
52%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
4.62
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
44%
2.30
24%
4.24
Win to Nil
22%
4.46
5%
19.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 8.5 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.8 | 12.3 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.7 | 8.9 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zorya Luhansk vs FC Kharkiv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Zorya Luhansk and FC Kharkiv expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Zorya Luhansk and 0.83 for FC Kharkiv, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Zorya Luhansk vs FC Kharkiv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Zorya Luhansk's recent record stands at 25W 11D 12L from 48 games, a 1.79 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Zorya Luhansk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Kharkiv, meanwhile, have gone 9W 16D 23L across 48 games — 0.90 PPG, with L-L-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for FC Kharkiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Zorya Luhansk by 0.89 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Kharkiv heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Zorya Luhansk have managed 13W 5D 5L from 23 games — 1.91 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Kharkiv's away record stands at 3W 9D 11L across 23 trips, a 0.78 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zorya Luhansk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Zorya Luhansk are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; FC Kharkiv are on 0.85 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Defensively: Zorya Luhansk have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zorya Luhansk
Blended
FC Kharkiv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zorya Luhansk and FC Kharkiv in coming into this match?
Zorya Luhansk have gone 25W 11D 12L in their last 48 games (1.79 PPG), while FC Kharkiv have gone 9W 16D 23L in their last 48 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zorya Luhansk at home or FC Kharkiv away?
Zorya Luhansk's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zorya Luhansk at home: 1.91 PPG; FC Kharkiv away: 0.78 PPG.
Have Zorya Luhansk or FC Kharkiv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zorya Luhansk have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, FC Kharkiv in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Zorya Luhansk and FC Kharkiv runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Oct 2021, when Zorya Luhansk won 1-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Zorya Luhansk's record when hosting FC Kharkiv specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
5
Zorya Luhansk
1
Draws
1
FC Kharkiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zorya Luhansk and FC Kharkiv?
From 7 meetings on record, Zorya Luhansk have won 5, FC Kharkiv have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Zorya Luhansk and FC Kharkiv last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Zorya Luhansk 1-1 FC Kharkiv.
Who has won more matches between Zorya Luhansk and FC Kharkiv?
Zorya Luhansk have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Zorya Luhansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
FC Kharkiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zorya Luhansk 52%, FC Kharkiv 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Zorya Luhansk) and 30% (FC Kharkiv).
On the defensive side: Zorya Luhansk keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; FC Kharkiv in 30%; FC Kharkiv in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zorya Luhansk home games / FC Kharkiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zorya Luhansk play FC Kharkiv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Zorya Luhansk's recent matches and 35% of FC Kharkiv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Zorya Luhansk vs FC Kharkiv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Zorya Luhansk's recent games and 30% of FC Kharkiv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zorya Luhansk and FC Kharkiv tend to score early?
Zorya Luhansk have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, FC Kharkiv in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Zorya Luhansk edge out FC Kharkiv 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zorya Luhansk beat FC Kharkiv 2-1 at Stadion Livyi Bereh, Regular Season - 22, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zorya Luhansk 1.44 xG and FC Kharkiv 0.83 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zorya Luhansk attack 1.01 / defence 0.79 against FC Kharkiv attack 0.86 / defence 1.34, drawn from 48/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zorya Luhansk 52% | Draw 27% | FC Kharkiv 22%, with Zorya Luhansk to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zorya Luhansk 60%, FC Kharkiv 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zorya Luhansk's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Zorya Luhansk arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 0.90. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.