Vorskla Poltava 1-3 Oleksandria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Oleksandria at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vorskla Poltava vs Oleksandria encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Vorskla Poltava and Oleksandria meet at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho in Premier League, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Friday 18 April 2025 at 12:05 UTC.
Form
Vorskla Poltava (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Vorskla Poltava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vorskla Poltava at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 home games — 0.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Oleksandria's overall Premier League record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Oleksandria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Oleksandria's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Oleksandria arrive in superior form — a 1.30 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Vorskla Poltava have seen both teams score in just 20% of their matches, Oleksandria in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Vorskla Poltava, 3 for Oleksandria and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 6 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2024, ended 0–1 with Oleksandria winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Vorskla Poltava — key trading statistics (54 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Oleksandria — key trading statistics (54 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vorskla Poltava 44% versus Oleksandria 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vorskla Poltava 43% | Oleksandria 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vorskla Poltava 0.72 xG and Oleksandria 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vorskla Poltava attack 0.666 / defence 1.154 | Oleksandria attack 0.905 / defence 0.957. League average goals — home 1.130 / away 0.987. Vorskla Poltava's attack strength of 0.666 is below the league average — the 0.72 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 54 Vorskla Poltava games / 54 Oleksandria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 25% | Draw 33% | Oleksandria 42%. Fair-value odds: Vorskla Poltava 4.00 | Draw 3.03 | Oleksandria 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.75. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.75 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Vorskla Poltava's lower xG of 0.72 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Oleksandria are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Oleksandria if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.75 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 26% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 33% on No. Form rates corroborate: Vorskla Poltava 20% | Oleksandria 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vorskla Poltava vs Oleksandria | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho • Kick-off: Friday 18 Apr 2025, 12:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 25% | Draw 33% | Oleksandria 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 33% | xG Vorskla Poltava 0.72 / Oleksandria 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Vorskla Poltava attack 0.666 / def 1.154 | Oleksandria attack 0.905 / def 0.957 | league avg home 1.130 / away 0.987 • Poisson stance: Oleksandria (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.72
Vorskla Poltava xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Oleksandria xG
33%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vorskla Poltava vs Oleksandria kick off?
Vorskla Poltava vs Oleksandria kicked off at 12:05 on Friday 18 April 2025 at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho.
What was the final score in Vorskla Poltava vs Oleksandria?
Vorskla Poltava 1 - 3 Oleksandria.
Where is Vorskla Poltava vs Oleksandria being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho.
What competition is Vorskla Poltava vs Oleksandria part of?
Vorskla Poltava vs Oleksandria is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Vorskla Poltava vs Oleksandria?
Our statistical model gives Vorskla Poltava a 25% chance of winning, Oleksandria a 42% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Oleksandria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vorskla Poltava vs Oleksandria?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Vorskla Poltava and Oleksandria will score (BTTS).
Will Vorskla Poltava vs Oleksandria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and Oleksandria?
Record (6 meetings): Vorskla Poltava 2W | Draws 1 | Oleksandria 3W.
What form are Vorskla Poltava and Oleksandria in?
Vorskla Poltava (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Oleksandria (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Vorskla Poltava's attack rating (0.67) and Oleksandria's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 0.72 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Oleksandria's attack (0.91x) against Vorskla Poltava's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 19.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (16.2%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Oleksandria Win
25%
3.99
33%
3.04
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.3%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.72
Vorskla Poltava xG
Total xG
1.75
1.03
Oleksandria xG
3.99
25%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.03
67%
BTTS No
1.49
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
49%
2.06
Win to Nil
9%
11.19
20%
4.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.3 | 17.9 | 9.2 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 12.9 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vorskla Poltava vs Oleksandria?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.0%.
How many goals are Vorskla Poltava and Oleksandria expected to score?
The model projects 0.72 expected goals for Vorskla Poltava and 1.03 for Oleksandria, a combined total of 1.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Vorskla Poltava vs Oleksandria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 54 outings, Vorskla Poltava have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 14W 12D 28L record — D-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Vorskla Poltava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Oleksandria's form line: 24W 16D 14L from 54 games, 1.63 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-D. The sample for Oleksandria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Oleksandria are the form team by 0.63 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Vorskla Poltava.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Vorskla Poltava have posted 0.84 PPG from 25 outings (5W 6D 14L).
On the road, Oleksandria have gone 8W 9D 8L from 25 away games — 1.32 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Oleksandria come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Vorskla Poltava are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Oleksandria are on 1.22 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Oleksandria in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vorskla Poltava
Blended
Oleksandria
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vorskla Poltava and Oleksandria in coming into this match?
Vorskla Poltava have gone 14W 12D 28L in their last 54 games (1.00 PPG), while Oleksandria have gone 24W 16D 14L in their last 54 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vorskla Poltava at home or Oleksandria away?
Oleksandria's away record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vorskla Poltava at home: 0.84 PPG; Oleksandria away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Vorskla Poltava or Oleksandria been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vorskla Poltava have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Oleksandria in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Oleksandria have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Oleksandria won 3-0 on 1 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vorskla Poltava have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Oleksandria — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Vorskla Poltava
1
Draws
4
Oleksandria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and Oleksandria?
From 7 meetings on record, Vorskla Poltava have won 2, Oleksandria have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vorskla Poltava and Oleksandria last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2025, when Vorskla Poltava 1-3 Oleksandria.
Who has won more matches between Vorskla Poltava and Oleksandria?
Oleksandria have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Vorskla Poltava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Oleksandria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vorskla Poltava 40%, Oleksandria 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Vorskla Poltava) and 48% (Oleksandria).
On the defensive side: Oleksandria in 44%; Vorskla Poltava have failed to score in 48% of games; Oleksandria in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vorskla Poltava home games / Oleksandria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vorskla Poltava play Oleksandria?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Vorskla Poltava's recent matches and 40% of Oleksandria's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vorskla Poltava vs Oleksandria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Vorskla Poltava's recent games and 48% of Oleksandria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vorskla Poltava and Oleksandria tend to score early?
Vorskla Poltava have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Oleksandria in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Oleksandria cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Vorskla Poltava.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Oleksandria beat Vorskla Poltava 1-3 at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho, Regular Season - 25, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vorskla Poltava 0.72 xG and Oleksandria 1.03 xG, a combined 1.75. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Oleksandria outscored their 1.03 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vorskla Poltava attack 0.67 / defence 1.15 against Oleksandria attack 0.91 / defence 0.96, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vorskla Poltava 25% | Draw 33% | Oleksandria 42%, with Oleksandria to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. Over 3.5 was 10% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vorskla Poltava 43%, Oleksandria 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (54 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Oleksandria's trading profile (54 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Oleksandria arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Vorskla Poltava (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Oleksandria (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.