Vorskla Poltava vs Kolos Kovalivka – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vorskla Poltava at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vorskla Poltava vs Kolos Kovalivka fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Kolos Kovalivka make the trip to Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo to face Vorskla Poltava in Premier League, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Saturday 9 April 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Vorskla Poltava have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Vorskla Poltava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vorskla Poltava's home record at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Premier League appearances (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo.
Kolos Kovalivka (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W D W W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Kolos Kovalivka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kolos Kovalivka's away record: 3W 2D 3L from 8 road trips in Premier League this season (1.38 PPG). Away from home they average 0.62 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game. 4 away clean sheets from 8 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 12% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for Vorskla Poltava, 1.60 for Kolos Kovalivka — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Vorskla Poltava 1W, Kolos Kovalivka 0W, 0D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Sep 2021, ended 1–0 with Vorskla Poltava winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Vorskla Poltava goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Kolos Kovalivka goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 12% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 12% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vorskla Poltava 50% versus Kolos Kovalivka 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Vorskla Poltava 44% | Kolos Kovalivka 28%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vorskla Poltava 1.40 xG and Kolos Kovalivka 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vorskla Poltava attack 1.147 / defence 1.067 | Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.751 / defence 1.104. League average goals — home 1.104 / away 1.222. Data: 18 Vorskla Poltava games / 18 Kolos Kovalivka games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 47% | Draw 27% | Kolos Kovalivka 26%. Fair-value odds: Vorskla Poltava 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | Kolos Kovalivka 3.85. Vorskla Poltava hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Vorskla Poltava as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vorskla Poltava if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Vorskla Poltava 40% | Kolos Kovalivka 12% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vorskla Poltava vs Kolos Kovalivka | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 47% | Draw 27% | Kolos Kovalivka 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Vorskla Poltava 1.40 / Kolos Kovalivka 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Vorskla Poltava attack 1.147 / def 1.067 | Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.751 / def 1.104 | league avg home 1.104 / away 1.222 • Poisson stance: Vorskla Poltava (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Vorskla Poltava xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Kolos Kovalivka xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vorskla Poltava vs Kolos Kovalivka kick off?
Vorskla Poltava vs Kolos Kovalivka kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 9 April 2022 at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo.
Where is Vorskla Poltava vs Kolos Kovalivka being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo.
What competition is Vorskla Poltava vs Kolos Kovalivka part of?
Vorskla Poltava vs Kolos Kovalivka is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Vorskla Poltava vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Our statistical model gives Vorskla Poltava a 47% chance of winning, Kolos Kovalivka a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Vorskla Poltava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vorskla Poltava vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Vorskla Poltava and Kolos Kovalivka will score (BTTS).
Will Vorskla Poltava vs Kolos Kovalivka have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and Kolos Kovalivka?
Record (1 meetings): Vorskla Poltava 1W | Draws 0 | Kolos Kovalivka 0W.
What form are Vorskla Poltava and Kolos Kovalivka in?
Vorskla Poltava (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-D-D. Kolos Kovalivka (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Vorskla Poltava's attack at 1.15x the league average against Kolos Kovalivka's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Kolos Kovalivka's attack (0.75x) against Vorskla Poltava's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vorskla Poltava Win
47%
2.15
27%
3.70
26%
3.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Vorskla Poltava xG
Total xG
2.38
0.98
Kolos Kovalivka xG
2.15
47%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
3.80
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
25%
4.05
Win to Nil
18%
5.71
7%
15.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 12.7 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vorskla Poltava vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Vorskla Poltava and Kolos Kovalivka expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Vorskla Poltava and 0.98 for Kolos Kovalivka, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Vorskla Poltava vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Vorskla Poltava come into this having played 18 games, going 9W 6D 3L for 1.83 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-D. The sample for Vorskla Poltava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Kolos Kovalivka sit at 1.33 PPG from 18 outings (7W 3D 8L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Kolos Kovalivka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vorskla Poltava carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Kolos Kovalivka — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Vorskla Poltava's home form reads 5W 2D 1L across 8 games on their own ground, a 2.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Kolos Kovalivka have taken 1.38 points per game from 8 outings (3W 2D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vorskla Poltava come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Vorskla Poltava are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Kolos Kovalivka are on 0.78 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Defensively: Vorskla Poltava have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vorskla Poltava
Blended
Kolos Kovalivka
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vorskla Poltava and Kolos Kovalivka in coming into this match?
Vorskla Poltava have gone 9W 6D 3L in their last 18 games (1.83 PPG), while Kolos Kovalivka have gone 7W 3D 8L in their last 18 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vorskla Poltava at home or Kolos Kovalivka away?
Vorskla Poltava's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vorskla Poltava at home: 2.12 PPG; Kolos Kovalivka away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Vorskla Poltava or Kolos Kovalivka been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vorskla Poltava have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Kolos Kovalivka in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vorskla Poltava have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Kolos Kovalivka — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Vorskla Poltava
2
Draws
2
Kolos Kovalivka
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and Kolos Kovalivka?
From 7 meetings on record, Vorskla Poltava have won 3, Kolos Kovalivka have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Vorskla Poltava and Kolos Kovalivka last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2025, when Kolos Kovalivka 0-0 Vorskla Poltava.
Who has won more matches between Vorskla Poltava and Kolos Kovalivka?
Vorskla Poltava have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Vorskla Poltava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Kolos Kovalivka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 38% (Vorskla Poltava) and 12% (Kolos Kovalivka) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 50% for Vorskla Poltava and 12% for Kolos Kovalivka.
On the defensive side: Vorskla Poltava keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Kolos Kovalivka in 50%; Kolos Kovalivka in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vorskla Poltava home games / Kolos Kovalivka away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vorskla Poltava play Kolos Kovalivka?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Vorskla Poltava's recent matches and 12% of Kolos Kovalivka's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vorskla Poltava vs Kolos Kovalivka usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Vorskla Poltava's recent games and 12% of Kolos Kovalivka's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vorskla Poltava and Kolos Kovalivka tend to score early?
Vorskla Poltava have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Kolos Kovalivka in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Vorskla Poltava's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vorskla Poltava and Kolos Kovalivka finished level at 0-0 at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo, Regular Season - 24, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vorskla Poltava 1.40 xG and Kolos Kovalivka 0.98 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Vorskla Poltava fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Kolos Kovalivka landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vorskla Poltava attack 1.15 / defence 1.07 against Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.75 / defence 1.10, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vorskla Poltava 47% | Draw 27% | Kolos Kovalivka 26%, with Vorskla Poltava to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vorskla Poltava 44%, Kolos Kovalivka 28%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Kolos Kovalivka's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Vorskla Poltava arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Vorskla Poltava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward. Kolos Kovalivka (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.