Vorskla Poltava 1-2 Dynamo Kyiv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dynamo Kyiv at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vorskla Poltava vs Dynamo Kyiv fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 24 as Vorskla Poltava welcome Dynamo Kyiv to Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo. Kick-off is set for Thursday 4 May 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Vorskla Poltava stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Vorskla Poltava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vorskla Poltava's home record at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo.
Across all Premier League games this season, Dynamo Kyiv have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Dynamo Kyiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Dynamo Kyiv have posted 7W 1D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Vorskla Poltava) versus 1.80 (Dynamo Kyiv). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Vorskla Poltava, 0 for Dynamo Kyiv and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Vorskla Poltava trading profile (41 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Dynamo Kyiv trading profile (41 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vorskla Poltava 54% versus Dynamo Kyiv 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vorskla Poltava 46% | Dynamo Kyiv 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vorskla Poltava 1.00 xG and Dynamo Kyiv 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vorskla Poltava attack 1.049 / defence 0.994 | Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.186 / defence 0.760. League average goals — home 1.256 / away 1.191. Dynamo Kyiv's defence strength of 0.760 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 41 Vorskla Poltava games / 41 Dynamo Kyiv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 27% | Draw 27% | Dynamo Kyiv 46%. Fair-value odds: Vorskla Poltava 3.70 | Draw 3.70 | Dynamo Kyiv 2.17. Dynamo Kyiv hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dynamo Kyiv are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dynamo Kyiv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.41 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Vorskla Poltava 40% | Dynamo Kyiv 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vorskla Poltava vs Dynamo Kyiv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo • Kick-off: Thursday 4 May 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 27% | Draw 27% | Dynamo Kyiv 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Vorskla Poltava 1.00 / Dynamo Kyiv 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Vorskla Poltava attack 1.049 / def 0.994 | Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.186 / def 0.760 | league avg home 1.256 / away 1.191 • Poisson stance: Dynamo Kyiv (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Vorskla Poltava xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Dynamo Kyiv xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vorskla Poltava vs Dynamo Kyiv kick off?
Vorskla Poltava vs Dynamo Kyiv kicked off at 13:00 on Thursday 4 May 2023 at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo.
What was the final score in Vorskla Poltava vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Vorskla Poltava 1 - 2 Dynamo Kyiv.
Where is Vorskla Poltava vs Dynamo Kyiv being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo.
What competition is Vorskla Poltava vs Dynamo Kyiv part of?
Vorskla Poltava vs Dynamo Kyiv is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Vorskla Poltava vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Our statistical model gives Vorskla Poltava a 27% chance of winning, Dynamo Kyiv a 46% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Dynamo Kyiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vorskla Poltava vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Vorskla Poltava and Dynamo Kyiv will score (BTTS).
Will Vorskla Poltava vs Dynamo Kyiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and Dynamo Kyiv?
Record (2 meetings): Vorskla Poltava 1W | Draws 1 | Dynamo Kyiv 0W.
What form are Vorskla Poltava and Dynamo Kyiv in?
Vorskla Poltava (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Dynamo Kyiv (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Vorskla Poltava's attack rating (1.05) and Dynamo Kyiv's defence rating (0.76), the model arrives at 1.00 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Dynamo Kyiv's attack versus Vorskla Poltava's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.0%), 0-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dynamo Kyiv Win
27%
3.72
27%
3.71
46%
2.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Vorskla Poltava xG
Total xG
2.41
1.40
Dynamo Kyiv xG
3.72
27%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
2.16
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
25%
4.07
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
7%
15.16
17%
5.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 12.7 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.7 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.4 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vorskla Poltava vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Vorskla Poltava and Dynamo Kyiv expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Vorskla Poltava and 1.40 for Dynamo Kyiv, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Vorskla Poltava vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Vorskla Poltava come into this having played 41 games, going 17W 12D 12L for 1.54 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-D. The sample for Vorskla Poltava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dynamo Kyiv sit at 2.17 PPG from 41 outings (27W 8D 6L), a run that reads W-W-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Dynamo Kyiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dynamo Kyiv carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.63 PPG clear of Vorskla Poltava — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Vorskla Poltava's home form reads 10W 5D 4L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.84 PPG return.
Away from home, Dynamo Kyiv have taken 2.47 points per game from 19 outings (15W 2D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dynamo Kyiv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Vorskla Poltava are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Dynamo Kyiv are on 1.98 scored and 0.68 conceded.
Defensively: Dynamo Kyiv in 54% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vorskla Poltava
Blended
Dynamo Kyiv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vorskla Poltava and Dynamo Kyiv in coming into this match?
Vorskla Poltava have gone 17W 12D 12L in their last 41 games (1.54 PPG), while Dynamo Kyiv have gone 27W 8D 6L in their last 41 (2.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vorskla Poltava at home or Dynamo Kyiv away?
Dynamo Kyiv's away record (2.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vorskla Poltava at home: 1.84 PPG; Dynamo Kyiv away: 2.47 PPG.
Have Vorskla Poltava or Dynamo Kyiv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vorskla Poltava have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Dynamo Kyiv in 54%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Mar 2024, when Dynamo Kyiv won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Vorskla Poltava's record when hosting Dynamo Kyiv specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Vorskla Poltava
2
Draws
4
Dynamo Kyiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and Dynamo Kyiv?
From 7 meetings on record, Vorskla Poltava have won 1, Dynamo Kyiv have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Vorskla Poltava and Dynamo Kyiv last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2025, when Vorskla Poltava 1-1 Dynamo Kyiv.
Who has won more matches between Vorskla Poltava and Dynamo Kyiv?
Dynamo Kyiv have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Vorskla Poltava see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Dynamo Kyiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vorskla Poltava 42%, Dynamo Kyiv 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Vorskla Poltava) and 53% (Dynamo Kyiv).
On the defensive side: Vorskla Poltava keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Dynamo Kyiv in 47%; Vorskla Poltava have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vorskla Poltava home games / Dynamo Kyiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vorskla Poltava play Dynamo Kyiv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Vorskla Poltava's recent matches and 53% of Dynamo Kyiv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vorskla Poltava vs Dynamo Kyiv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Vorskla Poltava's recent games and 53% of Dynamo Kyiv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vorskla Poltava and Dynamo Kyiv tend to score early?
Vorskla Poltava have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Dynamo Kyiv in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Dynamo Kyiv edge out Vorskla Poltava 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dynamo Kyiv beat Vorskla Poltava 1-2 at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo, Regular Season - 24, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vorskla Poltava 1.00 xG and Dynamo Kyiv 1.40 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vorskla Poltava attack 1.05 / defence 0.99 against Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.19 / defence 0.76, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vorskla Poltava 27% | Draw 27% | Dynamo Kyiv 46%, with Dynamo Kyiv to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vorskla Poltava 46%, Dynamo Kyiv 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (41 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Dynamo Kyiv's trading profile (41 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Dynamo Kyiv arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 1.54. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Vorskla Poltava (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.