Veres Rivne 1-1 Shakhtar Donetsk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Shakhtar Donetsk (63%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Veres Rivne face Shakhtar Donetsk.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Veres Rivne host Shakhtar Donetsk at Stadion Avanhard in Premier League, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 27 September 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Veres Rivne stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Veres Rivne have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadion Avanhard, Veres Rivne have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Shakhtar Donetsk — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Shakhtar Donetsk have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Shakhtar Donetsk away from home this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Shakhtar Donetsk — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
Shakhtar Donetsk have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 5 encounters against Veres Rivne's 0 victories.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 8 Dec 2023, ended 0–2 with Shakhtar Donetsk winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Shakhtar Donetsk have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Veres Rivne in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Shakhtar Donetsk in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; they lead at the break 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Veres Rivne 58% versus Shakhtar Donetsk 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Veres Rivne 50% | Shakhtar Donetsk 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Veres Rivne 1.13 xG and Shakhtar Donetsk 2.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Veres Rivne attack 0.877 / defence 1.333 | Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.486 / defence 1.012. League average goals — home 1.272 / away 1.150. Shakhtar Donetsk have an above-average attack strength of 1.486 — the away xG of 2.28 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 37 Veres Rivne games / 36 Shakhtar Donetsk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Veres Rivne 18% | Draw 19% | Shakhtar Donetsk 63%. Fair-value odds: Veres Rivne 5.56 | Draw 5.26 | Shakhtar Donetsk 1.59. The model has a clear lean to Shakhtar Donetsk (63%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.41. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.41 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.13 / 2.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shakhtar Donetsk are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.41 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Veres Rivne 70% | Shakhtar Donetsk 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Veres Rivne vs Shakhtar Donetsk | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadion Avanhard • Kick-off: Friday 27 Sep 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Veres Rivne 18% | Draw 19% | Shakhtar Donetsk 63% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 61% | xG Veres Rivne 1.13 / Shakhtar Donetsk 2.28 • Poisson strength factors: Veres Rivne attack 0.877 / def 1.333 | Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.486 / def 1.012 | league avg home 1.272 / away 1.150 • Poisson stance: Shakhtar Donetsk (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Veres Rivne xG
Expected Goals
2.28
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
61%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Veres Rivne vs Shakhtar Donetsk kick off?
Veres Rivne vs Shakhtar Donetsk kicked off at 16:00 on Friday 27 September 2024 at Stadion Avanhard.
What was the final score in Veres Rivne vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Veres Rivne 1 - 1 Shakhtar Donetsk.
Where is Veres Rivne vs Shakhtar Donetsk being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Avanhard.
What competition is Veres Rivne vs Shakhtar Donetsk part of?
Veres Rivne vs Shakhtar Donetsk is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Veres Rivne vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our statistical model gives Veres Rivne a 18% chance of winning, Shakhtar Donetsk a 63% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Shakhtar Donetsk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Veres Rivne vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Veres Rivne and Shakhtar Donetsk will score (BTTS).
Will Veres Rivne vs Shakhtar Donetsk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Veres Rivne and Shakhtar Donetsk?
Record (5 meetings): Veres Rivne 0W | Draws 1 | Shakhtar Donetsk 4W.
What form are Veres Rivne and Shakhtar Donetsk in?
Veres Rivne (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Shakhtar Donetsk (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Veres Rivne's attack at 0.88x the league average against Shakhtar Donetsk's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Shakhtar Donetsk's attack versus Veres Rivne's defence, projects 2.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-2 carries the highest individual probability at 9.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.6%), 0-2 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shakhtar Donetsk Win
18%
5.66
19%
5.21
63%
1.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
8.6%
Away win
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Veres Rivne xG
Total xG
3.41
2.28
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
5.66
18%
Home win
5.21
19%
Draw
1.58
63%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
10%
9.75
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
2%
55.13
20%
4.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 7.5 | 8.6 | 6.5 | 3.7 | 1.7 |
| 1 | 3.7 | 8.5 | 9.7 | 7.4 | 4.2 | 1.9 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 4.8 | 5.5 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Veres Rivne vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Veres Rivne and Shakhtar Donetsk expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Veres Rivne and 2.28 for Shakhtar Donetsk, a combined total of 3.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Veres Rivne vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Veres Rivne's recent record stands at 8W 12D 16L from 36 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Veres Rivne, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Shakhtar Donetsk, meanwhile, have gone 26W 5D 5L across 36 games — 2.31 PPG, with L-W-L-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Shakhtar Donetsk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shakhtar Donetsk by 1.31 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Veres Rivne heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Veres Rivne have managed 5W 7D 6L from 18 games — 1.22 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shakhtar Donetsk's away record stands at 12W 4D 2L across 18 trips, a 2.22 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shakhtar Donetsk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Veres Rivne are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Shakhtar Donetsk are on 2.25 scored and 0.86 conceded.
Defensively: Shakhtar Donetsk in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Veres Rivne
Early Season
Shakhtar Donetsk
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Veres Rivne and Shakhtar Donetsk in coming into this match?
Veres Rivne have gone 8W 12D 16L in their last 36 games (1.00 PPG), while Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 26W 5D 5L in their last 36 (2.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Veres Rivne at home or Shakhtar Donetsk away?
Shakhtar Donetsk's away record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Veres Rivne at home: 1.22 PPG; Shakhtar Donetsk away: 2.22 PPG.
Have Veres Rivne or Shakhtar Donetsk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Veres Rivne have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Shakhtar Donetsk in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Veres Rivne and Shakhtar Donetsk runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Shakhtar Donetsk go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Sep 2021, when Shakhtar Donetsk won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Veres Rivne's record when hosting Shakhtar Donetsk specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
0
Veres Rivne
2
Draws
7
Shakhtar Donetsk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Veres Rivne and Shakhtar Donetsk?
From 9 meetings on record, Veres Rivne have won 0, Shakhtar Donetsk have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Veres Rivne and Shakhtar Donetsk last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Shakhtar Donetsk 1-0 Veres Rivne.
Who has won more matches between Veres Rivne and Shakhtar Donetsk?
Shakhtar Donetsk have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Veres Rivne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Shakhtar Donetsk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Veres Rivne 67%, Shakhtar Donetsk 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Veres Rivne) and 56% (Shakhtar Donetsk). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shakhtar Donetsk in 44%; Veres Rivne have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Veres Rivne home games / Shakhtar Donetsk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Veres Rivne play Shakhtar Donetsk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Veres Rivne's games and 50% of Shakhtar Donetsk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Veres Rivne vs Shakhtar Donetsk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Veres Rivne's matches and 56% of Shakhtar Donetsk's.
Do Veres Rivne and Shakhtar Donetsk tend to score early?
Veres Rivne have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Shakhtar Donetsk in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Veres Rivne and Shakhtar Donetsk share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Veres Rivne and Shakhtar Donetsk finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Avanhard, Regular Season - 8, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Veres Rivne 1.13 xG and Shakhtar Donetsk 2.28 xG, a combined 3.41. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Shakhtar Donetsk landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Veres Rivne attack 0.88 / defence 1.33 against Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.49 / defence 1.01, drawn from 37/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Veres Rivne 18% | Draw 19% | Shakhtar Donetsk 63%, with Shakhtar Donetsk to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Veres Rivne 50%, Shakhtar Donetsk 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Veres Rivne's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Shakhtar Donetsk's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shakhtar Donetsk arrived the stronger side — 2.31 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Shakhtar Donetsk (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.28 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.