Veres Rivne 0-2 Kolos Kovalivka – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Kolos Kovalivka (35%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Veres Rivne face Kolos Kovalivka.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Kolos Kovalivka make the trip to Stadion Avanhard to face Veres Rivne in Premier League (matchday 18). The match kicks off on Sunday 25 February 2024 at 11:00 UK time.
Form
Veres Rivne (all games): 1W 5D 4L across their last 10 — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, Veres Rivne have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Veres Rivne are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Kolos Kovalivka's record over their last 10 games: 2W 7D 1L (1.30 PPG). Last five: D D W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 0.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Kolos Kovalivka away from home: 2W 5D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On a straight form reading, Kolos Kovalivka are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
The head-to-head sample leans to Kolos Kovalivka, who have 4 wins from 4 H2H matches compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 12 Aug 2023, ended Veres Rivne 0–2 Kolos Kovalivka — a Kolos Kovalivka win.
Kolos Kovalivka have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 4 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading & In-Play
Veres Rivne — key trading statistics (last 46 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Kolos Kovalivka — key trading statistics (last 46 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time; they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Veres Rivne 50% versus Kolos Kovalivka 26%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Veres Rivne 44% | Kolos Kovalivka 24%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Veres Rivne 1.20 xG and Kolos Kovalivka 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Veres Rivne attack 1.193 / defence 1.246 | Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.794 / defence 0.888. League average goals — home 1.127 / away 1.234. Kolos Kovalivka's attack rating of 0.794 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.22. Veres Rivne's defence rating of 1.246 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Kolos Kovalivka's projected output up. Data: built from Veres Rivne's last 46 games and Kolos Kovalivka's last 46.
Result probabilities: Veres Rivne 34% | Draw 32% | Kolos Kovalivka 35%. Fair-value odds: Veres Rivne 2.98 | Draw 3.15 | Kolos Kovalivka 2.88. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kolos Kovalivka are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kolos Kovalivka if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 57% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Veres Rivne 70% (last 10 home games) | Kolos Kovalivka 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Veres Rivne vs Kolos Kovalivka | Competition: Premier League, matchday 18 | Venue: Stadion Avanhard • Kick-off: Sunday 25 February 2024 at 11:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Veres Rivne 34% | Draw 32% | Kolos Kovalivka 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Veres Rivne 1.20 / Kolos Kovalivka 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Veres Rivne attack 1.193 / def 1.246 | Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.794 / def 0.888 | league avg home 1.127 / away 1.234 • Poisson stance: Kolos Kovalivka (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Veres Rivne xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Kolos Kovalivka xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Veres Rivne vs Kolos Kovalivka FAQs
What time does Veres Rivne vs Kolos Kovalivka kick off?
Veres Rivne vs Kolos Kovalivka kicked off at 11:00 UK time on Sunday 25 February 2024 at Stadion Avanhard.
What was the final score in Veres Rivne vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Veres Rivne 0 - 2 Kolos Kovalivka.
Where is Veres Rivne vs Kolos Kovalivka being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Avanhard.
What competition is Veres Rivne vs Kolos Kovalivka part of?
Veres Rivne vs Kolos Kovalivka is a Premier League fixture (matchday 18) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Veres Rivne vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Our statistical model gives Veres Rivne a 34% chance of winning, Kolos Kovalivka a 35% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Kolos Kovalivka the favourite.
Will both teams score in Veres Rivne vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Veres Rivne and Kolos Kovalivka will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Veres Rivne vs Kolos Kovalivka have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Veres Rivne's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against Kolos Kovalivka's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. Flip it around — Kolos Kovalivka's attack (0.79x) against Veres Rivne's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from Veres Rivne's last 46 games and Kolos Kovalivka's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kolos Kovalivka Win
34%
2.98
32%
3.15
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Veres Rivne xG
Total xG
2.42
1.22
Kolos Kovalivka xG
2.98
34%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
29%
3.39
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
10%
10.12
11%
9.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 10.9 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.0 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.8 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Veres Rivne vs Kolos Kovalivka Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Veres Rivne vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Veres Rivne and Kolos Kovalivka expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Veres Rivne and 1.22 for Kolos Kovalivka, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Veres Rivne vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Veres Rivne's recent record stands at 9W 13D 24L from 46 games, a 0.87 PPG return, with D-L-W-D-L in the last five.
Kolos Kovalivka, meanwhile, have gone 14W 15D 17L across 46 games — 1.24 PPG, with D-D-W-D-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.87 PPG for Veres Rivne against 1.24 for Kolos Kovalivka. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Veres Rivne have managed 6W 6D 10L from their last 22 home games — 1.09 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kolos Kovalivka's away record stands at 5W 9D 8L across their last 22 away games, a 1.09 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Veres Rivne are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Kolos Kovalivka are on 0.74 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kolos Kovalivka in 26%.
Defensively: Kolos Kovalivka in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Veres Rivne
Blended
Kolos Kovalivka
Blended
Veres Rivne (Home) vs Kolos Kovalivka (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Veres Rivne
Blended
Kolos Kovalivka
Blended
❓ Veres Rivne vs Kolos Kovalivka Form FAQs
What form are Veres Rivne and Kolos Kovalivka in coming into this match?
Veres Rivne have gone 9W 13D 24L in their last 46 games (0.87 PPG), while Kolos Kovalivka have gone 14W 15D 17L in their last 46 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Veres Rivne at home or Kolos Kovalivka away?
Veres Rivne's home record (1.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Veres Rivne at home: 1.09 PPG; Kolos Kovalivka away: 1.09 PPG.
Have Veres Rivne or Kolos Kovalivka been keeping clean sheets recently?
Veres Rivne have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Kolos Kovalivka in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Veres Rivne and Kolos Kovalivka, the earliest from November 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 23 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Kolos Kovalivka have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Veres Rivne have gone 1W 0D 4L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Kolos Kovalivka — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Veres Rivne
1
Draws
7
Kolos Kovalivka
Recent Meetings
❓ Veres Rivne vs Kolos Kovalivka H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Veres Rivne and Kolos Kovalivka?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Veres Rivne have won 2, Kolos Kovalivka have won 7, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Veres Rivne and Kolos Kovalivka last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 October 2026: Veres Rivne 0-2 Kolos Kovalivka.
Who has won more matches between Veres Rivne and Kolos Kovalivka?
Kolos Kovalivka have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Veres Rivne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Kolos Kovalivka see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Veres Rivne 59%, Kolos Kovalivka 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Veres Rivne) and 23% (Kolos Kovalivka).
On the defensive side: Kolos Kovalivka in 41%; Veres Rivne have failed to score in 32% of games; Kolos Kovalivka in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Veres Rivne home games / Kolos Kovalivka away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Veres Rivne vs Kolos Kovalivka Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Veres Rivne and Kolos Kovalivka matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Veres Rivne's recent matches and 32% of Kolos Kovalivka's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Veres Rivne and Kolos Kovalivka matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Veres Rivne's recent games and 23% of Kolos Kovalivka's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Veres Rivne and Kolos Kovalivka matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Veres Rivne's recent matches and 54% of Kolos Kovalivka's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kolos Kovalivka cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Veres Rivne.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kolos Kovalivka beat Veres Rivne 0-2 at Stadion Avanhard, Regular Season - 18, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Veres Rivne 1.20 xG and Kolos Kovalivka 1.22 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Veres Rivne fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Veres Rivne attack 1.19 / defence 1.25 against Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.79 / defence 0.89, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Veres Rivne 34% | Draw 32% | Kolos Kovalivka 35%, with Kolos Kovalivka to win its most likely call at 35%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Veres Rivne 44%, Kolos Kovalivka 24%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Veres Rivne's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Kolos Kovalivka's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 26% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Veres Rivne 0.87 PPG, Kolos Kovalivka 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kolos Kovalivka win broke the near-deadlock. Veres Rivne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward. Kolos Kovalivka (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.59 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.