Veres Rivne 2-0 FC Mariupol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Veres Rivne at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Veres Rivne vs FC Mariupol encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Veres Rivne host FC Mariupol at Stadion Avanhard in Premier League, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 23 October 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Veres Rivne stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Veres Rivne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Veres Rivne at Stadion Avanhard this season: 2W 3D 0L from 5 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 0.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 5 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Avanhard. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Premier League games this season, FC Mariupol have recorded 1W 0D 9L from 10 outings — 0.30 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Mariupol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Mariupol's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 3L across 5 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 exceeds their overall 0.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Veres Rivne are in the better shape of the two on current Premier League data — 1.10 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Profile
Veres Rivne in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 0% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time; they fail to score in 36% of games.
FC Mariupol in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Veres Rivne 27% versus FC Mariupol 73%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Veres Rivne 36% | FC Mariupol 82%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Veres Rivne 1.12 xG and FC Mariupol 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Veres Rivne attack 0.726 / defence 0.830 | FC Mariupol attack 0.864 / defence 1.446. League average goals — home 1.070 / away 1.172. Veres Rivne's attack strength of 0.726 is below the league average — the 1.12 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. FC Mariupol bring a strong defensive rating of 1.446 — this is suppressing Veres Rivne's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Veres Rivne games / 11 FC Mariupol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Veres Rivne 42% | Draw 32% | FC Mariupol 27%. Fair-value odds: Veres Rivne 2.38 | Draw 3.12 | FC Mariupol 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Veres Rivne are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Veres Rivne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.96 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates are neutral: Veres Rivne 20% | FC Mariupol 80%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Veres Rivne vs FC Mariupol | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadion Avanhard • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Oct 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Veres Rivne 42% | Draw 32% | FC Mariupol 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Veres Rivne 1.12 / FC Mariupol 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Veres Rivne attack 0.726 / def 0.830 | FC Mariupol attack 0.864 / def 1.446 | league avg home 1.070 / away 1.172 • Poisson stance: Veres Rivne (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Veres Rivne xG
Expected Goals
0.84
FC Mariupol xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Veres Rivne vs FC Mariupol kick off?
Veres Rivne vs FC Mariupol kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 23 October 2021 at Stadion Avanhard.
What was the final score in Veres Rivne vs FC Mariupol?
Veres Rivne 2 - 0 FC Mariupol.
Where is Veres Rivne vs FC Mariupol being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Avanhard.
What competition is Veres Rivne vs FC Mariupol part of?
Veres Rivne vs FC Mariupol is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Veres Rivne vs FC Mariupol?
Our statistical model gives Veres Rivne a 42% chance of winning, FC Mariupol a 27% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Veres Rivne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Veres Rivne vs FC Mariupol?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Veres Rivne and FC Mariupol will score (BTTS).
Will Veres Rivne vs FC Mariupol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Veres Rivne and FC Mariupol?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Veres Rivne and FC Mariupol in?
Veres Rivne (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. FC Mariupol (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Veres Rivne's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against FC Mariupol's defensive record (1.45x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. The same calculation in reverse, FC Mariupol's attack versus Veres Rivne's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Veres Rivne Win
42%
2.40
32%
3.17
27%
3.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Veres Rivne xG
Total xG
1.96
0.84
FC Mariupol xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
3.74
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.58
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
33%
3.07
Win to Nil
18%
5.55
9%
11.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.1 | 11.8 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.8 | 13.2 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Veres Rivne vs FC Mariupol?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are Veres Rivne and FC Mariupol expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Veres Rivne and 0.84 for FC Mariupol, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Veres Rivne vs FC Mariupol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Veres Rivne come into this having played 11 games, going 4W 3D 4L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-W. The sample for Veres Rivne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Mariupol sit at 0.36 PPG from 11 outings (1W 1D 9L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for FC Mariupol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Veres Rivne carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of FC Mariupol — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Veres Rivne's home form reads 2W 3D 0L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.80 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.36 PPG overall — Veres Rivne are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, FC Mariupol have taken 0.80 points per game from 5 outings (1W 1D 3L). That's actually stronger than their 0.36 PPG overall record — FC Mariupol travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Veres Rivne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Veres Rivne are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; FC Mariupol are on 1.18 scored and 2.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Veres Rivne have seen both teams score in 27% of their recent games; FC Mariupol in 73%.
Defensively: Veres Rivne have kept a clean sheet in 55% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Veres Rivne
Blended
FC Mariupol
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Veres Rivne and FC Mariupol in coming into this match?
Veres Rivne have gone 4W 3D 4L in their last 11 games (1.36 PPG), while FC Mariupol have gone 1W 1D 9L in their last 11 (0.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Veres Rivne at home or FC Mariupol away?
Veres Rivne's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Veres Rivne at home: 1.80 PPG; FC Mariupol away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Veres Rivne or FC Mariupol been keeping clean sheets recently?
Veres Rivne have kept a clean sheet in 55% of their recent games, FC Mariupol in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 October 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Veres Rivne
0
Draws
0
FC Mariupol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Veres Rivne and FC Mariupol?
From 1 meetings on record, Veres Rivne have won 1, FC Mariupol have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Veres Rivne and FC Mariupol last play each other?
They last met on 23 October 2021, when Veres Rivne 2-0 FC Mariupol.
Who has won more matches between Veres Rivne and FC Mariupol?
Veres Rivne have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Veres Rivne tend to start slowly — only 0% of their games have a goal by half-time.
FC Mariupol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Veres Rivne 20%, FC Mariupol 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 0% (Veres Rivne) and 80% (FC Mariupol).
On the defensive side: Veres Rivne keep a clean sheet in 80% of their matches; Veres Rivne have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Veres Rivne home games / FC Mariupol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Veres Rivne play FC Mariupol?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Veres Rivne's recent matches and 80% of FC Mariupol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Veres Rivne vs FC Mariupol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Veres Rivne's recent games and 80% of FC Mariupol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Veres Rivne and FC Mariupol tend to score early?
Veres Rivne have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, FC Mariupol in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Veres Rivne cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over FC Mariupol.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Veres Rivne beat FC Mariupol 2-0 at Stadion Avanhard, Regular Season - 12, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Veres Rivne 1.12 xG and FC Mariupol 0.84 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Veres Rivne beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Mariupol landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Veres Rivne attack 0.73 / defence 0.83 against FC Mariupol attack 0.86 / defence 1.45, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Veres Rivne 42% | Draw 32% | FC Mariupol 27%, with Veres Rivne to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Veres Rivne 36%, FC Mariupol 82%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Veres Rivne's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and duly kept one.
FC Mariupol's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Veres Rivne arrived the stronger side — 1.36 PPG against 0.36. That form edge translated into the three points. Veres Rivne (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.60 average — above their attacking norm. FC Mariupol (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.