Shakhtar Donetsk 3-0 Inhulets – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shakhtar Donetsk at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shakhtar Donetsk vs Inhulets encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 11 as Shakhtar Donetsk welcome Inhulets to Arena L'viv. Kick-off is set for Saturday 5 November 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 8W 2D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.60 PPG return. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Shakhtar Donetsk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Arena L'viv, Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 8W 2D 0L this season (10 games, 2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Inhulets — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Inhulets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Inhulets's away record: 0W 6D 4L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Shakhtar Donetsk have the edge — a 1.90 PPG advantage (2.60 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Shakhtar Donetsk register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Inhulets in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Shakhtar Donetsk, 0 for Inhulets and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Nov 2021, ended 1–0 with Shakhtar Donetsk winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Shakhtar Donetsk in-play tendencies (25 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
Inhulets in-play tendencies (25 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shakhtar Donetsk 48% versus Inhulets 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shakhtar Donetsk 60% | Inhulets 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shakhtar Donetsk 1.67 xG and Inhulets 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.251 / defence 0.854 | Inhulets attack 0.949 / defence 1.021. League average goals — home 1.303 / away 1.231. Shakhtar Donetsk carry an above-average attack strength of 1.251 — their λ of 1.67 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 26 Shakhtar Donetsk games / 25 Inhulets games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shakhtar Donetsk 53% | Draw 24% | Inhulets 23%. Fair-value odds: Shakhtar Donetsk 1.89 | Draw 4.17 | Inhulets 4.35. Shakhtar Donetsk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shakhtar Donetsk are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shakhtar Donetsk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Shakhtar Donetsk 60% | Inhulets 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shakhtar Donetsk vs Inhulets | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Arena L'viv • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Nov 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shakhtar Donetsk 53% | Draw 24% | Inhulets 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 51% | xG Shakhtar Donetsk 1.67 / Inhulets 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.251 / def 0.854 | Inhulets attack 0.949 / def 1.021 | league avg home 1.303 / away 1.231 • Poisson stance: Shakhtar Donetsk (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Inhulets xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shakhtar Donetsk vs Inhulets kick off?
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Inhulets kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 5 November 2022 at Arena L'viv.
What was the final score in Shakhtar Donetsk vs Inhulets?
Shakhtar Donetsk 3 - 0 Inhulets.
Where is Shakhtar Donetsk vs Inhulets being played?
The match is being played at Arena L'viv.
What competition is Shakhtar Donetsk vs Inhulets part of?
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Inhulets is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Shakhtar Donetsk vs Inhulets?
Our statistical model gives Shakhtar Donetsk a 53% chance of winning, Inhulets a 23% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Shakhtar Donetsk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shakhtar Donetsk vs Inhulets?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Shakhtar Donetsk and Inhulets will score (BTTS).
Will Shakhtar Donetsk vs Inhulets have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shakhtar Donetsk and Inhulets?
Record (2 meetings): Shakhtar Donetsk 2W | Draws 0 | Inhulets 0W.
What form are Shakhtar Donetsk and Inhulets in?
Shakhtar Donetsk (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Inhulets (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Shakhtar Donetsk's attack rating (1.25) and Inhulets's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.67 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Inhulets's attack versus Shakhtar Donetsk's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shakhtar Donetsk Win
53%
1.89
24%
4.10
23%
4.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
Total xG
2.66
1.00
Inhulets xG
1.89
53%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
4.42
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
19%
5.29
Win to Nil
20%
5.12
4%
23.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 11.6 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.6 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shakhtar Donetsk vs Inhulets?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Shakhtar Donetsk and Inhulets expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Shakhtar Donetsk and 1.00 for Inhulets, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Shakhtar Donetsk vs Inhulets?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Shakhtar Donetsk come into this having played 25 games, going 20W 4D 1L for 2.56 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-D. The sample for Shakhtar Donetsk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Inhulets sit at 0.68 PPG from 25 outings (3W 8D 14L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Inhulets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shakhtar Donetsk carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.88 PPG clear of Inhulets — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Shakhtar Donetsk's home form reads 11W 2D 1L across 14 games on their own ground, a 2.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Inhulets have taken 0.64 points per game from 14 outings (1W 6D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shakhtar Donetsk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Shakhtar Donetsk are averaging 2.60 goals scored and 0.56 conceded per game recently; Inhulets are on 0.80 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Defensively: Shakhtar Donetsk have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shakhtar Donetsk
Blended
Inhulets
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shakhtar Donetsk and Inhulets in coming into this match?
Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 20W 4D 1L in their last 25 games (2.56 PPG), while Inhulets have gone 3W 8D 14L in their last 25 (0.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shakhtar Donetsk at home or Inhulets away?
Shakhtar Donetsk's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shakhtar Donetsk at home: 2.50 PPG; Inhulets away: 0.64 PPG.
Have Shakhtar Donetsk or Inhulets been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shakhtar Donetsk have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their recent games, Inhulets in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Shakhtar Donetsk have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Nov 2024, when Shakhtar Donetsk won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shakhtar Donetsk's record when hosting Inhulets specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
6
Shakhtar Donetsk
0
Draws
0
Inhulets
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shakhtar Donetsk and Inhulets?
From 6 meetings on record, Shakhtar Donetsk have won 6, Inhulets have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shakhtar Donetsk and Inhulets last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2025, when Inhulets 1-4 Shakhtar Donetsk.
Who has won more matches between Shakhtar Donetsk and Inhulets?
Shakhtar Donetsk have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shakhtar Donetsk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Inhulets see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shakhtar Donetsk 57%, Inhulets 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Shakhtar Donetsk) and 50% (Inhulets). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shakhtar Donetsk keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Inhulets in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shakhtar Donetsk home games / Inhulets away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shakhtar Donetsk play Inhulets?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Shakhtar Donetsk's games and 57% of Inhulets's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shakhtar Donetsk vs Inhulets usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Shakhtar Donetsk's matches and 50% of Inhulets's.
Do Shakhtar Donetsk and Inhulets tend to score early?
Shakhtar Donetsk have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Inhulets in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Shakhtar Donetsk run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Inhulets.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shakhtar Donetsk beat Inhulets 3-0 at Arena L'viv, Regular Season - 11, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shakhtar Donetsk 1.67 xG and Inhulets 1.00 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Shakhtar Donetsk beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Inhulets landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.25 / defence 0.85 against Inhulets attack 0.95 / defence 1.02, drawn from 26/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shakhtar Donetsk 53% | Draw 24% | Inhulets 23%, with Shakhtar Donetsk to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shakhtar Donetsk 60%, Inhulets 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shakhtar Donetsk's trading profile (25 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and duly kept one.
Inhulets's trading profile (25 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Shakhtar Donetsk arrived the stronger side — 2.56 PPG against 0.68. That form edge translated into the three points. Inhulets (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.