Shakhtar Donetsk 2-1 Inhulets – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 55% as Shakhtar Donetsk take on Inhulets.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 1 as Shakhtar Donetsk welcome Inhulets to NSK Olimpijs'kyj. Kick-off is set for Saturday 24 July 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shakhtar Donetsk 0.35 xG and Inhulets 0.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shakhtar Donetsk attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Inhulets attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.361 / away 0.506. Data: 0 Shakhtar Donetsk games / 0 Inhulets games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Shakhtar Donetsk 17% | Draw 55% | Inhulets 27%. Fair-value odds: Shakhtar Donetsk 5.88 | Draw 1.82 | Inhulets 3.70. The draw (55%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 5% | BTTS probability 14% | Total xG 0.85. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 95% probability — total xG of 0.85 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 86% — Shakhtar Donetsk's lower xG of 0.35 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 14%.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 55% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 17% and away win at 27% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 0.85 combined xG gives a 5% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shakhtar Donetsk vs Inhulets | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: NSK Olimpijs'kyj • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Jul 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shakhtar Donetsk 17% | Draw 55% | Inhulets 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 5% | BTTS 14% | xG Shakhtar Donetsk 0.35 / Inhulets 0.49 • Poisson strength factors: Shakhtar Donetsk attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Inhulets attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.361 / away 0.506 • Poisson stance: Draw (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.35
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
Expected Goals
0.49
Inhulets xG
14%
BTTS
23%
Over 1.5
5%
Over 2.5
1%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shakhtar Donetsk vs Inhulets kick off?
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Inhulets kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 24 July 2021 at NSK Olimpijs'kyj.
What was the final score in Shakhtar Donetsk vs Inhulets?
Shakhtar Donetsk 2 - 1 Inhulets.
Where is Shakhtar Donetsk vs Inhulets being played?
The match is being played at NSK Olimpijs'kyj.
What competition is Shakhtar Donetsk vs Inhulets part of?
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Inhulets is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Shakhtar Donetsk vs Inhulets?
Our statistical model gives Shakhtar Donetsk a 17% chance of winning, Inhulets a 27% chance, and a 55% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Shakhtar Donetsk vs Inhulets?
Our model estimates a 14% probability that both Shakhtar Donetsk and Inhulets will score (BTTS).
Will Shakhtar Donetsk vs Inhulets have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 5%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shakhtar Donetsk and Inhulets?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shakhtar Donetsk and Inhulets in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Shakhtar Donetsk's attack rating (0.85) and Inhulets's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 0.35 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Inhulets's attack versus Shakhtar Donetsk's defence, projects 0.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 43.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (20.2%), 1-0 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 78% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
17%
5.74
55%
1.81
27%
3.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
42.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
21.2%
Away win
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.35
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
Total xG
0.85
0.49
Inhulets xG
5.74
17%
Home win
1.81
55%
Draw
3.65
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
21%
Over 1.5
4.76
79%
Under 1.5
1.27
5%
Over 2.5
20.00
95%
Under 2.5
1.05
1%
Over 3.5
100.00
99%
Under 3.5
1.01
0%
Over 4.5
–
100%
Under 4.5
1.00
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
14%
BTTS Yes
7.22
86%
BTTS No
1.16
Clean Sheet
61%
1.64
70%
1.42
Win to Nil
11%
9.41
19%
5.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 42.8 | 21.2 | 5.2 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.1 | 7.5 | 1.9 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 2 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – | – |
| 4 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shakhtar Donetsk vs Inhulets?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 43.8%.
How many goals are Shakhtar Donetsk and Inhulets expected to score?
The model projects 0.35 expected goals for Shakhtar Donetsk and 0.49 for Inhulets, a combined total of 0.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Shakhtar Donetsk vs Inhulets?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shakhtar Donetsk
Pre-Season
Inhulets
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Shakhtar Donetsk have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Nov 2024, when Shakhtar Donetsk won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shakhtar Donetsk's record when hosting Inhulets specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
6
Shakhtar Donetsk
0
Draws
0
Inhulets
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shakhtar Donetsk and Inhulets?
From 6 meetings on record, Shakhtar Donetsk have won 6, Inhulets have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shakhtar Donetsk and Inhulets last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2025, when Inhulets 1-4 Shakhtar Donetsk.
Who has won more matches between Shakhtar Donetsk and Inhulets?
Shakhtar Donetsk have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shakhtar Donetsk home games / Inhulets away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Shakhtar Donetsk defy the odds to beat Inhulets 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shakhtar Donetsk beat Inhulets 2-1 at NSK Olimpijs'kyj, Regular Season - 1, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shakhtar Donetsk 0.35 xG and Inhulets 0.49 xG, a combined 0.85. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Shakhtar Donetsk beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shakhtar Donetsk attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Inhulets attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shakhtar Donetsk 17% | Draw 55% | Inhulets 27%, with the draw its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Shakhtar Donetsk win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 5%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 23% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 14% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.