Ruh Lviv 0-2 Dynamo Kyiv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Dynamo Kyiv (47%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Ruh Lviv face Dynamo Kyiv.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Arena Lviv plays host to Ruh Lviv versus Dynamo Kyiv in Premier League, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Saturday 29 March 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ruh Lviv have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ruh Lviv's home record at Arena Lviv: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Dynamo Kyiv (all games): 6W 4D 0L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W D W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Dynamo Kyiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Dynamo Kyiv have gone 7W 3D 0L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Dynamo Kyiv are 1.10 PPG clear of Ruh Lviv in recent Premier League fixtures (2.20 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Dynamo Kyiv hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 6 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Dynamo Kyiv have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Ruh Lviv half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games).
Dynamo Kyiv half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ruh Lviv 51% versus Dynamo Kyiv 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ruh Lviv 33% | Dynamo Kyiv 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ruh Lviv 0.82 xG and Dynamo Kyiv 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ruh Lviv attack 0.777 / defence 1.083 | Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.335 / defence 0.888. League average goals — home 1.194 / away 0.876. Ruh Lviv's attack strength of 0.777 is below the league average — the 0.82 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Dynamo Kyiv have an above-average attack strength of 1.335 — the away xG of 1.27 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 51 Ruh Lviv games / 51 Dynamo Kyiv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 24% | Draw 29% | Dynamo Kyiv 47%. Fair-value odds: Ruh Lviv 4.17 | Draw 3.45 | Dynamo Kyiv 2.13. Dynamo Kyiv hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dynamo Kyiv are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dynamo Kyiv if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.09 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates are neutral: Ruh Lviv 30% | Dynamo Kyiv 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ruh Lviv vs Dynamo Kyiv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Arena Lviv • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Mar 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 24% | Draw 29% | Dynamo Kyiv 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 40% | xG Ruh Lviv 0.82 / Dynamo Kyiv 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Ruh Lviv attack 0.777 / def 1.083 | Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.335 / def 0.888 | league avg home 1.194 / away 0.876 • Poisson stance: Dynamo Kyiv (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Ruh Lviv xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Dynamo Kyiv xG
40%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ruh Lviv vs Dynamo Kyiv kick off?
Ruh Lviv vs Dynamo Kyiv kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 29 March 2025 at Arena Lviv.
What was the final score in Ruh Lviv vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Ruh Lviv 0 - 2 Dynamo Kyiv.
Where is Ruh Lviv vs Dynamo Kyiv being played?
The match is being played at Arena Lviv.
What competition is Ruh Lviv vs Dynamo Kyiv part of?
Ruh Lviv vs Dynamo Kyiv is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Ruh Lviv vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Our statistical model gives Ruh Lviv a 24% chance of winning, Dynamo Kyiv a 47% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Dynamo Kyiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ruh Lviv vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Ruh Lviv and Dynamo Kyiv will score (BTTS).
Will Ruh Lviv vs Dynamo Kyiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Dynamo Kyiv?
Record (6 meetings): Ruh Lviv 0W | Draws 2 | Dynamo Kyiv 4W.
What form are Ruh Lviv and Dynamo Kyiv in?
Ruh Lviv (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Dynamo Kyiv (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Ruh Lviv's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Dynamo Kyiv's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.82. Flip it around — Dynamo Kyiv's attack (1.33x) against Ruh Lviv's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 0-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dynamo Kyiv Win
24%
4.13
29%
3.44
47%
2.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Ruh Lviv xG
Total xG
2.09
1.27
Dynamo Kyiv xG
4.13
24%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
2.14
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
44%
2.28
Win to Nil
7%
14.66
21%
4.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 15.7 | 9.9 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.9 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ruh Lviv vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Ruh Lviv and Dynamo Kyiv expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Ruh Lviv and 1.27 for Dynamo Kyiv, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Ruh Lviv vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ruh Lviv come into this having played 51 games, going 18W 21D 12L for 1.47 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L. The sample for Ruh Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dynamo Kyiv sit at 2.35 PPG from 51 outings (37W 9D 5L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Dynamo Kyiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dynamo Kyiv carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.88 PPG clear of Ruh Lviv — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Ruh Lviv's home form reads 7W 11D 6L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Dynamo Kyiv have taken 2.21 points per game from 24 outings (16W 5D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dynamo Kyiv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ruh Lviv are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Dynamo Kyiv are on 2.27 scored and 0.84 conceded. Dynamo Kyiv's attacking output running into Ruh Lviv's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Ruh Lviv have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games; Dynamo Kyiv in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ruh Lviv
Blended
Dynamo Kyiv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ruh Lviv and Dynamo Kyiv in coming into this match?
Ruh Lviv have gone 18W 21D 12L in their last 51 games (1.47 PPG), while Dynamo Kyiv have gone 37W 9D 5L in their last 51 (2.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ruh Lviv at home or Dynamo Kyiv away?
Dynamo Kyiv's away record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ruh Lviv at home: 1.33 PPG; Dynamo Kyiv away: 2.21 PPG.
Have Ruh Lviv or Dynamo Kyiv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ruh Lviv have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Dynamo Kyiv in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Dynamo Kyiv go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Dynamo Kyiv won 1-5 on 8 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ruh Lviv have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Dynamo Kyiv — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
0
Ruh Lviv
2
Draws
7
Dynamo Kyiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Dynamo Kyiv?
From 9 meetings on record, Ruh Lviv have won 0, Dynamo Kyiv have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ruh Lviv and Dynamo Kyiv last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Dynamo Kyiv 1-0 Ruh Lviv.
Who has won more matches between Ruh Lviv and Dynamo Kyiv?
Dynamo Kyiv have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Dynamo Kyiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ruh Lviv 50%, Dynamo Kyiv 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Ruh Lviv) and 62% (Dynamo Kyiv).
On the defensive side: Ruh Lviv keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Ruh Lviv have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ruh Lviv home games / Dynamo Kyiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ruh Lviv play Dynamo Kyiv?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Ruh Lviv's games and 71% of Dynamo Kyiv's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ruh Lviv vs Dynamo Kyiv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Ruh Lviv's recent games and 62% of Dynamo Kyiv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ruh Lviv and Dynamo Kyiv tend to score early?
Ruh Lviv have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Dynamo Kyiv in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dynamo Kyiv cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Ruh Lviv.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dynamo Kyiv beat Ruh Lviv 0-2 at Arena Lviv, Regular Season - 22, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ruh Lviv 0.82 xG and Dynamo Kyiv 1.27 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Ruh Lviv fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ruh Lviv attack 0.78 / defence 1.08 against Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.33 / defence 0.89, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ruh Lviv 24% | Draw 29% | Dynamo Kyiv 47%, with Dynamo Kyiv to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ruh Lviv 33%, Dynamo Kyiv 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (51 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Dynamo Kyiv's trading profile (51 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Dynamo Kyiv arrived the stronger side — 2.35 PPG against 1.47. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Ruh Lviv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dynamo Kyiv (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.