Polessya 2-1 Vorskla Poltava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Polessya at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Polessya vs Vorskla Poltava encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Vorskla Poltava travel to Tsentralnyi Stadion to take on Polessya. The game is scheduled for Sunday 6 October 2024, 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Polessya — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 2.40 points per game. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Polessya have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Polessya at Tsentralnyi Stadion this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.80 lags behind their overall 2.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Tsentralnyi Stadion this season.
Across all Premier League games this season, Vorskla Poltava have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Vorskla Poltava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vorskla Poltava's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Polessya are in the better shape of the two on current Premier League data — 1.20 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Polessya, 0 for Vorskla Poltava and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Apr 2024, ended 1–0 with Polessya winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Polessya trading profile (37 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Vorskla Poltava trading profile (37 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Polessya 51% versus Vorskla Poltava 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Polessya 43% | Vorskla Poltava 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Polessya 1.62 xG and Vorskla Poltava 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Polessya attack 1.178 / defence 0.940 | Vorskla Poltava attack 0.952 / defence 1.163. League average goals — home 1.186 / away 1.104. Data: 37 Polessya games / 38 Vorskla Poltava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Polessya 51% | Draw 28% | Vorskla Poltava 21%. Fair-value odds: Polessya 1.96 | Draw 3.57 | Vorskla Poltava 4.76. Polessya hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Polessya as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Polessya offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Polessya 60% | Vorskla Poltava 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Polessya vs Vorskla Poltava | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Tsentralnyi Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Oct 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Polessya 51% | Draw 28% | Vorskla Poltava 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Polessya 1.62 / Vorskla Poltava 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Polessya attack 1.178 / def 0.940 | Vorskla Poltava attack 0.952 / def 1.163 | league avg home 1.186 / away 1.104 • Poisson stance: Polessya (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Polessya xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Vorskla Poltava xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Polessya vs Vorskla Poltava kick off?
Polessya vs Vorskla Poltava kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 6 October 2024 at Tsentralnyi Stadion.
What was the final score in Polessya vs Vorskla Poltava?
Polessya 2 - 1 Vorskla Poltava.
Where is Polessya vs Vorskla Poltava being played?
The match is being played at Tsentralnyi Stadion.
What competition is Polessya vs Vorskla Poltava part of?
Polessya vs Vorskla Poltava is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Polessya vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our statistical model gives Polessya a 51% chance of winning, Vorskla Poltava a 21% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Polessya the favourite.
Will both teams score in Polessya vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Polessya and Vorskla Poltava will score (BTTS).
Will Polessya vs Vorskla Poltava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Polessya and Vorskla Poltava?
Record (2 meetings): Polessya 2W | Draws 0 | Vorskla Poltava 0W.
What form are Polessya and Vorskla Poltava in?
Polessya (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Vorskla Poltava (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Polessya's attack at 1.18x the league average against Vorskla Poltava's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Vorskla Poltava's attack versus Polessya's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Polessya Win
51%
1.97
28%
3.58
21%
4.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Polessya xG
Total xG
2.61
0.99
Vorskla Poltava xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
4.68
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
20%
5.08
Win to Nil
19%
5.30
4%
23.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 7.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 11.8 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.6 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Polessya vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Polessya and Vorskla Poltava expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Polessya and 0.99 for Vorskla Poltava, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Polessya vs Vorskla Poltava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 37 outings, Polessya have picked up 1.81 PPG on a 19W 10D 8L record — W-W-W-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Polessya, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Vorskla Poltava's form line: 11W 9D 17L from 37 games, 1.14 PPG, last five D-D-L-D-L. The sample for Vorskla Poltava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Polessya are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Vorskla Poltava.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Polessya have posted 1.74 PPG from 19 outings (9W 6D 4L).
On the road, Vorskla Poltava have gone 6W 5D 8L from 19 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Polessya come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Polessya are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Vorskla Poltava are on 1.00 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Defensively: Polessya have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Polessya
Early Season
Vorskla Poltava
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Polessya and Vorskla Poltava in coming into this match?
Polessya have gone 19W 10D 8L in their last 37 games (1.81 PPG), while Vorskla Poltava have gone 11W 9D 17L in their last 37 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Polessya at home or Vorskla Poltava away?
Polessya's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Polessya at home: 1.74 PPG; Vorskla Poltava away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Polessya or Vorskla Poltava been keeping clean sheets recently?
Polessya have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Vorskla Poltava in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Polessya and Vorskla Poltava runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Polessya have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Oct 2023, when Polessya won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Polessya's record when hosting Vorskla Poltava specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Polessya
0
Draws
0
Vorskla Poltava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Polessya and Vorskla Poltava?
From 4 meetings on record, Polessya have won 4, Vorskla Poltava have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Polessya and Vorskla Poltava last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2025, when Vorskla Poltava 0-2 Polessya.
Who has won more matches between Polessya and Vorskla Poltava?
Polessya have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Polessya see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 26% of those situations.
Vorskla Poltava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Polessya 63%, Vorskla Poltava 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 37% for Polessya and 32% for Vorskla Poltava.
On the defensive side: Vorskla Poltava in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Polessya home games / Vorskla Poltava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Polessya play Vorskla Poltava?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 63% of Polessya's recent matches and 42% of Vorskla Poltava's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Polessya vs Vorskla Poltava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Polessya's recent games and 32% of Vorskla Poltava's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Polessya and Vorskla Poltava tend to score early?
Polessya have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Vorskla Poltava in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Polessya edge out Vorskla Poltava 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Polessya beat Vorskla Poltava 2-1 at Tsentralnyi Stadion, Regular Season - 9, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Polessya 1.62 xG and Vorskla Poltava 0.99 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Polessya attack 1.18 / defence 0.94 against Vorskla Poltava attack 0.95 / defence 1.16, drawn from 37/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Polessya 51% | Draw 28% | Vorskla Poltava 21%, with Polessya to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Polessya 43%, Vorskla Poltava 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Polessya's trading profile (37 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (37 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Polessya arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.14. Form held, and they took the win. Vorskla Poltava (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.