Polessya 0-0 FC Kharkiv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Polessya at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Polessya vs FC Kharkiv fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Kharkiv make the trip to Tsentralnyi Stadion to face Polessya in Premier League, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Monday 3 November 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Polessya (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Polessya, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Polessya at Tsentralnyi Stadion this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Tsentralnyi Stadion this season.
FC Kharkiv's overall Premier League record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for FC Kharkiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Kharkiv's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 1L across 7 road games this term (1.71 PPG). Away from home they average 1.43 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.90 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Polessya lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 19 May 2024, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Polessya goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 14% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.
FC Kharkiv goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 31% of cases; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Polessya 23% | FC Kharkiv 38%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Polessya 31% | FC Kharkiv 8%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Polessya 1.07 xG and FC Kharkiv 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Polessya attack 1.002 / defence 0.724 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.978 / defence 0.935. League average goals — home 1.147 / away 1.280. Polessya's defence rating of 0.724 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 40 Polessya games / 10 FC Kharkiv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Polessya 39% | Draw 31% | FC Kharkiv 30%. Fair-value odds: Polessya 2.56 | Draw 3.23 | FC Kharkiv 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Polessya as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Polessya if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.98 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates are neutral: Polessya 40% | FC Kharkiv 57%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Polessya vs FC Kharkiv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Tsentralnyi Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 3 Nov 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Polessya 39% | Draw 31% | FC Kharkiv 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 40% | xG Polessya 1.07 / FC Kharkiv 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Polessya attack 1.002 / def 0.724 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.978 / def 0.935 | league avg home 1.147 / away 1.280 • Poisson stance: Polessya (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Polessya xG
Expected Goals
0.91
FC Kharkiv xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Polessya vs FC Kharkiv kick off?
Polessya vs FC Kharkiv kicked off at 16:00 on Monday 3 November 2025 at Tsentralnyi Stadion.
What was the final score in Polessya vs FC Kharkiv?
Polessya 0 - 0 FC Kharkiv.
Where is Polessya vs FC Kharkiv being played?
The match is being played at Tsentralnyi Stadion.
What competition is Polessya vs FC Kharkiv part of?
Polessya vs FC Kharkiv is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Polessya vs FC Kharkiv?
Our statistical model gives Polessya a 39% chance of winning, FC Kharkiv a 30% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Polessya the favourite.
Will both teams score in Polessya vs FC Kharkiv?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Polessya and FC Kharkiv will score (BTTS).
Will Polessya vs FC Kharkiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Polessya and FC Kharkiv?
Record (2 meetings): Polessya 1W | Draws 1 | FC Kharkiv 0W.
What form are Polessya and FC Kharkiv in?
Polessya (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. FC Kharkiv (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Polessya's attack at 1.00x the league average against FC Kharkiv's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Kharkiv's attack (0.98x) against Polessya's defence (0.72x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 40/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Polessya Win
39%
2.58
31%
3.18
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Polessya xG
Total xG
1.98
0.91
FC Kharkiv xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.53
60%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
34%
2.93
Win to Nil
16%
6.39
10%
9.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.8 | 12.5 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.8 | 13.4 | 6.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 7.2 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Polessya vs FC Kharkiv?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Polessya and FC Kharkiv expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Polessya and 0.91 for FC Kharkiv, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Polessya vs FC Kharkiv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Polessya come into this having played 13 games, going 7W 3D 3L for 1.85 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-W. The sample for Polessya is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Kharkiv sit at 1.77 PPG from 13 outings (6W 5D 2L), a run that reads W-W-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for FC Kharkiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.85 PPG for Polessya against 1.77 for FC Kharkiv. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Polessya's home form reads 2W 3D 2L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return. That actually lags their 1.85 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, FC Kharkiv have taken 1.71 points per game from 7 outings (3W 3D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Kharkiv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Polessya are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 0.69 conceded per game recently; FC Kharkiv are on 1.15 scored and 0.62 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Polessya have seen both teams score in 23% of their recent games.
Defensively: Polessya have kept a clean sheet in 62% of their games; FC Kharkiv in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Polessya
Blended
FC Kharkiv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Polessya and FC Kharkiv in coming into this match?
Polessya have gone 7W 3D 3L in their last 13 games (1.85 PPG), while FC Kharkiv have gone 6W 5D 2L in their last 13 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Polessya at home or FC Kharkiv away?
FC Kharkiv's away record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Polessya at home: 1.29 PPG; FC Kharkiv away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Polessya or FC Kharkiv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Polessya have kept a clean sheet in 62% of their recent games, FC Kharkiv in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 10 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Polessya have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Polessya have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against FC Kharkiv — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Polessya
2
Draws
0
FC Kharkiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Polessya and FC Kharkiv?
From 5 meetings on record, Polessya have won 3, FC Kharkiv have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Polessya and FC Kharkiv last play each other?
They last met on 10 August 2026, when Polessya 3-1 FC Kharkiv.
Who has won more matches between Polessya and FC Kharkiv?
Polessya have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Polessya see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
FC Kharkiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Polessya 14%, FC Kharkiv 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 14% for Polessya and 14% for FC Kharkiv.
On the defensive side: Polessya keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Polessya have failed to score in 57% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Polessya home games / FC Kharkiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Polessya play FC Kharkiv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 14% of Polessya's recent matches and 57% of FC Kharkiv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Polessya vs FC Kharkiv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 14% of Polessya's recent games and 14% of FC Kharkiv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Polessya and FC Kharkiv tend to score early?
Polessya have had a goal before half-time in 43% of their recent matches, FC Kharkiv in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Polessya's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Tsentralnyi Stadion, Regular Season - 11, as Polessya and FC Kharkiv drew 0-0 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Polessya 1.07 xG and FC Kharkiv 0.91 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Polessya fell 1.1 short of their projected output. FC Kharkiv landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Polessya attack 1.00 / defence 0.72 against FC Kharkiv attack 0.98 / defence 0.94, drawn from 40/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Polessya 39% | Draw 31% | FC Kharkiv 30%, with Polessya to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 19% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Polessya 31%, FC Kharkiv 8%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 31%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Polessya's trading profile (13 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 23% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (13 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Polessya 1.85 PPG, FC Kharkiv 1.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Polessya (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Kharkiv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.