Oleksandria 2-1 FC Mariupol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Oleksandria at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Oleksandria vs FC Mariupol encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 9 as Oleksandria welcome FC Mariupol to KSK Nika. Kick-off is set for Saturday 25 September 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Oleksandria have gone 4W 2D 2L from 8 outings — a 1.75 PPG return. Last five: D W D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.75 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.75 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets in 8 games (38%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Oleksandria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Mariupol stand at 1W 1D 6L from 8 Premier League matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.38 per game is modest, conceding 2.62 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.62 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for FC Mariupol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Mariupol's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 2L across 4 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, Oleksandria have the edge — a 1.25 PPG advantage (1.75 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Data
Oleksandria trading profile (8 games): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games.
FC Mariupol trading profile (8 games): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 88% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oleksandria 38% versus FC Mariupol 75%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oleksandria 25% | FC Mariupol 88%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oleksandria 1.36 xG and FC Mariupol 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oleksandria attack 0.888 / defence 1.003 | FC Mariupol attack 0.902 / defence 1.433. League average goals — home 1.073 / away 1.156. FC Mariupol bring a strong defensive rating of 1.433 — this is suppressing Oleksandria's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Oleksandria games / 8 FC Mariupol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oleksandria 44% | Draw 27% | FC Mariupol 29%. Fair-value odds: Oleksandria 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | FC Mariupol 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Oleksandria at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Oleksandria offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.41 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Oleksandria 38% | FC Mariupol 75%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oleksandria vs FC Mariupol | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: KSK Nika • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Sep 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oleksandria 44% | Draw 27% | FC Mariupol 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Oleksandria 1.36 / FC Mariupol 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Oleksandria attack 0.888 / def 1.003 | FC Mariupol attack 0.902 / def 1.433 | league avg home 1.073 / away 1.156 • Poisson stance: Oleksandria (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Oleksandria xG
Expected Goals
1.05
FC Mariupol xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oleksandria vs FC Mariupol kick off?
Oleksandria vs FC Mariupol kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 25 September 2021 at KSK Nika.
What was the final score in Oleksandria vs FC Mariupol?
Oleksandria 2 - 1 FC Mariupol.
Where is Oleksandria vs FC Mariupol being played?
The match is being played at KSK Nika.
What competition is Oleksandria vs FC Mariupol part of?
Oleksandria vs FC Mariupol is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Oleksandria vs FC Mariupol?
Our statistical model gives Oleksandria a 44% chance of winning, FC Mariupol a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Oleksandria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oleksandria vs FC Mariupol?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Oleksandria and FC Mariupol will score (BTTS).
Will Oleksandria vs FC Mariupol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and FC Mariupol?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Oleksandria and FC Mariupol in?
Oleksandria (all comps): 4W-2D-2L in 8 | 1.75 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.75 | L5 D-W-D-W-L. FC Mariupol (all comps): 1W-1D-6L in 8 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.38 / GA 2.62 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Oleksandria's attack at 0.89x the league average against FC Mariupol's defence at 1.43x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Mariupol's attack versus Oleksandria's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Oleksandria Win
44%
2.27
27%
3.68
29%
3.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Oleksandria xG
Total xG
2.41
1.05
FC Mariupol xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
3.48
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
26%
3.92
Win to Nil
16%
6.45
7%
13.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.8 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.7 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oleksandria vs FC Mariupol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Oleksandria and FC Mariupol expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Oleksandria and 1.05 for FC Mariupol, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Oleksandria vs FC Mariupol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Oleksandria come into this having played 8 games, going 4W 2D 2L for 1.75 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-L. The sample for Oleksandria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Mariupol sit at 0.50 PPG from 8 outings (1W 1D 6L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for FC Mariupol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Oleksandria carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.25 PPG clear of FC Mariupol — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Oleksandria are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game recently; FC Mariupol are on 1.38 scored and 2.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Mariupol in 75%.
Defensively: Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oleksandria
Blended
FC Mariupol
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oleksandria and FC Mariupol in coming into this match?
Oleksandria have gone 4W 2D 2L in their last 8 games (1.75 PPG), while FC Mariupol have gone 1W 1D 6L in their last 8 (0.50 PPG).
Have Oleksandria or FC Mariupol been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, FC Mariupol in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Oleksandria and FC Mariupol runs to 1 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 September 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Oleksandria
0
Draws
0
FC Mariupol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and FC Mariupol?
From 1 meetings on record, Oleksandria have won 1, FC Mariupol have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Oleksandria and FC Mariupol last play each other?
They last met on 25 September 2021, when Oleksandria 2-1 FC Mariupol.
Who has won more matches between Oleksandria and FC Mariupol?
Oleksandria have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Oleksandria see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
FC Mariupol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oleksandria 38%, FC Mariupol 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Oleksandria) and 88% (FC Mariupol). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 12% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Oleksandria keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oleksandria home games / FC Mariupol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oleksandria play FC Mariupol?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 38% of Oleksandria's games and 75% of FC Mariupol's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Oleksandria vs FC Mariupol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 25% of Oleksandria's matches and 88% of FC Mariupol's.
Do Oleksandria and FC Mariupol tend to score early?
Oleksandria have had a goal before half-time in 38% of their recent matches, FC Mariupol in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Oleksandria edge out FC Mariupol 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Oleksandria beat FC Mariupol 2-1 at KSK Nika, Regular Season - 9, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oleksandria 1.36 xG and FC Mariupol 1.05 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oleksandria attack 0.89 / defence 1.00 against FC Mariupol attack 0.90 / defence 1.43, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oleksandria 44% | Draw 27% | FC Mariupol 29%, with Oleksandria to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oleksandria 25%, FC Mariupol 88%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oleksandria's trading profile (8 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Mariupol's trading profile (8 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Oleksandria arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 0.50. Form held, and they took the win. Oleksandria scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.