Oleksandria 3-0 Chornomorets – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Oleksandria at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Oleksandria vs Chornomorets encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Chornomorets make the trip to CSC Nika to face Oleksandria in Premier League, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Sunday 1 December 2024 at 11:00 UTC.
Current Form
Oleksandria's overall Premier League record this term: 7W 3D 0L from 10 games (2.40 PPG). Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Oleksandria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Oleksandria's home record at CSC Nika: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Premier League appearances (2.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at CSC Nika.
Chornomorets (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Chornomorets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Chornomorets have posted 0W 2D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Oleksandria. A 1.50 PPG lead over Chornomorets (2.40 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Oleksandria lead 1W to 2W over the last 5 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Apr 2024, ended 2–3 with Chornomorets winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Oleksandria half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 45% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Chornomorets half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oleksandria 42% versus Chornomorets 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oleksandria 46% | Chornomorets 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oleksandria 1.60 xG and Chornomorets 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oleksandria attack 1.224 / defence 0.827 | Chornomorets attack 0.911 / defence 1.077. League average goals — home 1.215 / away 1.046. Data: 43 Oleksandria games / 44 Chornomorets games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oleksandria 56% | Draw 27% | Chornomorets 17%. Fair-value odds: Oleksandria 1.79 | Draw 3.70 | Chornomorets 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Oleksandria (56%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Oleksandria at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.39 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Oleksandria 50% | Chornomorets 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oleksandria vs Chornomorets | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: CSC Nika • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Dec 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oleksandria 56% | Draw 27% | Chornomorets 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 45% | xG Oleksandria 1.60 / Chornomorets 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Oleksandria attack 1.224 / def 0.827 | Chornomorets attack 0.911 / def 1.077 | league avg home 1.215 / away 1.046 • Poisson stance: Oleksandria (56%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Oleksandria xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Chornomorets xG
45%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oleksandria vs Chornomorets kick off?
Oleksandria vs Chornomorets kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 1 December 2024 at CSC Nika.
What was the final score in Oleksandria vs Chornomorets?
Oleksandria 3 - 0 Chornomorets.
Where is Oleksandria vs Chornomorets being played?
The match is being played at CSC Nika.
What competition is Oleksandria vs Chornomorets part of?
Oleksandria vs Chornomorets is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Oleksandria vs Chornomorets?
Our statistical model gives Oleksandria a 56% chance of winning, Chornomorets a 17% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Oleksandria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oleksandria vs Chornomorets?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Oleksandria and Chornomorets will score (BTTS).
Will Oleksandria vs Chornomorets have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Chornomorets?
Record (5 meetings): Oleksandria 1W | Draws 2 | Chornomorets 2W.
What form are Oleksandria and Chornomorets in?
Oleksandria (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Chornomorets (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Oleksandria vs Chornomorets?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Oleksandria's attacking strength (1.22x league average) is weighed against Chornomorets's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.60. Flip it around — Chornomorets's attack (0.91x) against Oleksandria's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from 43/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.1%), 2-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Oleksandria Win
56%
1.79
27%
3.72
17%
5.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.8%
Home win
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Oleksandria xG
Total xG
2.39
0.79
Chornomorets xG
1.79
56%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
5.76
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.25
55%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
45%
2.20
20%
4.96
Win to Nil
25%
3.95
4%
28.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.7 | 11.6 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.8 | 9.3 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oleksandria vs Chornomorets?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Oleksandria and Chornomorets expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Oleksandria and 0.79 for Chornomorets, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Oleksandria vs Chornomorets?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Oleksandria come into this having played 43 games, going 18W 13D 12L for 1.56 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-D. The sample for Oleksandria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Chornomorets sit at 0.95 PPG from 43 outings (12W 5D 26L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Chornomorets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Oleksandria carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.61 PPG clear of Chornomorets — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Oleksandria's home form reads 10W 5D 5L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.75 PPG return.
Away from home, Chornomorets have taken 0.45 points per game from 20 outings (2W 3D 15L). That's a step down from their 0.95 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Chornomorets's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Oleksandria come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Oleksandria are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Chornomorets are on 1.05 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Defensively: Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oleksandria
Blended
Chornomorets
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oleksandria and Chornomorets in coming into this match?
Oleksandria have gone 18W 13D 12L in their last 43 games (1.56 PPG), while Chornomorets have gone 12W 5D 26L in their last 43 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oleksandria at home or Chornomorets away?
Oleksandria's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oleksandria at home: 1.75 PPG; Chornomorets away: 0.45 PPG.
Have Oleksandria or Chornomorets been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Chornomorets in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Chornomorets won 1-5 on 22 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Oleksandria have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Chornomorets — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Oleksandria
3
Draws
2
Chornomorets
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Chornomorets?
From 7 meetings on record, Oleksandria have won 2, Chornomorets have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Oleksandria and Chornomorets last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2025, when Chornomorets 0-0 Oleksandria.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Oleksandria see a goal before the break in 45% of their matches.
Chornomorets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oleksandria 45%, Chornomorets 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Oleksandria) and 45% (Chornomorets).
On the defensive side: Oleksandria keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Chornomorets in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oleksandria home games / Chornomorets away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oleksandria play Chornomorets?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Oleksandria's recent matches and 55% of Chornomorets's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Oleksandria vs Chornomorets usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Oleksandria's recent games and 45% of Chornomorets's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Oleksandria and Chornomorets tend to score early?
Oleksandria have had a goal before half-time in 45% of their recent matches, Chornomorets in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Oleksandria run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Chornomorets.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Oleksandria beat Chornomorets 3-0 at CSC Nika, Regular Season - 15, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oleksandria 1.60 xG and Chornomorets 0.79 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Oleksandria beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oleksandria attack 1.22 / defence 0.83 against Chornomorets attack 0.91 / defence 1.08, drawn from 43/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oleksandria 56% | Draw 27% | Chornomorets 17%, with Oleksandria to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oleksandria 46%, Chornomorets 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oleksandria's trading profile (43 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Chornomorets's trading profile (43 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Oleksandria arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 0.95. That form edge translated into the three points. Oleksandria (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. Chornomorets (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.