Oleksandria 3-0 Chornomorets – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Oleksandria at 56% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Oleksandria vs Chornomorets encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Chornomorets make the trip to CSC Nika to face Oleksandria in Premier League (matchday 15). The match kicks off on Sunday 1 December 2024 at 11:00 UK time.
Current Form
Oleksandria's record over their last 10 games: 7W 3D 0L (2.40 PPG). Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Oleksandria's home record over their last 10 home games: 8W 2D 0L (2.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Chornomorets (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 points per game. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Chornomorets have posted 0W 2D 8L from their last 10 away outings — 0.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form ledger tips toward Oleksandria. A 1.50 PPG lead over Chornomorets (2.40 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Chornomorets edge it 2 wins to 1, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 7 Apr 2024, ended Oleksandria 2–3 Chornomorets — a Chornomorets win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Oleksandria half-time and goal-timing data (last 43 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 45% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Chornomorets half-time and goal-timing data (last 43 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oleksandria 42% versus Chornomorets 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oleksandria 46% | Chornomorets 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oleksandria 1.60 xG and Chornomorets 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oleksandria attack 1.224 / defence 0.827 | Chornomorets attack 0.911 / defence 1.077. League average goals — home 1.215 / away 1.046. Data: built from Oleksandria's last 43 games and Chornomorets's last 44.
Result probabilities: Oleksandria 56% | Draw 27% | Chornomorets 17%. Fair-value odds: Oleksandria 1.79 | Draw 3.72 | Chornomorets 5.76. The model has a clear lean to Oleksandria (56%) — a 29pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Oleksandria at 56% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.39 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 55%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Oleksandria 50% (last 10 home games) | Chornomorets 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oleksandria vs Chornomorets | Competition: Premier League, matchday 15 | Venue: CSC Nika • Kick-off: Sunday 1 December 2024 at 11:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oleksandria 56% | Draw 27% | Chornomorets 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Oleksandria 1.60 / Chornomorets 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Oleksandria attack 1.224 / def 0.827 | Chornomorets attack 0.911 / def 1.077 | league avg home 1.215 / away 1.046 • Poisson stance: Oleksandria (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Oleksandria xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Chornomorets xG
45%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Oleksandria vs Chornomorets FAQs
What time does Oleksandria vs Chornomorets kick off?
Oleksandria vs Chornomorets kicked off at 11:00 UK time on Sunday 1 December 2024 at CSC Nika.
What was the final score in Oleksandria vs Chornomorets?
Oleksandria 3 - 0 Chornomorets.
Where is Oleksandria vs Chornomorets being played?
The match is being played at CSC Nika.
What competition is Oleksandria vs Chornomorets part of?
Oleksandria vs Chornomorets is a Premier League fixture (matchday 15) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Oleksandria vs Chornomorets?
Our statistical model gives Oleksandria a 56% chance of winning, Chornomorets a 17% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Oleksandria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oleksandria vs Chornomorets?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Oleksandria and Chornomorets will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Oleksandria vs Chornomorets have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Oleksandria's attacking strength (1.22x league average) is weighed against Chornomorets's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.60. Flip it around — Chornomorets's attack (0.91x) against Oleksandria's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from Oleksandria's last 43 games and Chornomorets's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.1%), 2-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Oleksandria Win
56%
1.79
27%
3.72
17%
5.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.8%
Home win
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Oleksandria xG
Total xG
2.39
0.79
Chornomorets xG
1.79
56%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
5.76
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.25
55%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
45%
2.20
20%
4.96
Win to Nil
25%
3.95
4%
28.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.7 | 11.6 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.8 | 9.3 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Oleksandria vs Chornomorets Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Oleksandria vs Chornomorets?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Oleksandria and Chornomorets expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Oleksandria and 0.79 for Chornomorets, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Oleksandria vs Chornomorets?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Oleksandria come into this having played 43 games, going 18W 13D 12L for 1.56 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-D.
On the other side, Chornomorets sit at 0.95 PPG from 43 outings (12W 5D 26L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-L across their last five.
Oleksandria carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.61 PPG clear of Chornomorets — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Oleksandria's home form reads 10W 5D 5L across their last 20 home games, a 1.75 PPG return.
Away from home, Chornomorets have taken 0.45 points per game from their last 20 away games (2W 3D 15L). That's a step down from their 0.95 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Chornomorets's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Oleksandria come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Oleksandria are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Chornomorets are on 1.05 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Defensively: Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oleksandria
Blended
Chornomorets
Blended
Oleksandria (Home) vs Chornomorets (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Oleksandria
Blended
Chornomorets
Blended
❓ Oleksandria vs Chornomorets Form FAQs
What form are Oleksandria and Chornomorets in coming into this match?
Oleksandria have gone 18W 13D 12L in their last 43 games (1.56 PPG), while Chornomorets have gone 12W 5D 26L in their last 43 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oleksandria at home or Chornomorets away?
Oleksandria's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oleksandria at home: 1.75 PPG; Chornomorets away: 0.45 PPG.
Have Oleksandria or Chornomorets been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Chornomorets in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 7 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent in our data was on 24 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Chornomorets won Oleksandria 1-5 Chornomorets on 22 Sep 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Oleksandria have gone 1W 1D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Chornomorets — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Oleksandria
3
Draws
2
Chornomorets
Recent Meetings
❓ Oleksandria vs Chornomorets H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Chornomorets?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Oleksandria have won 2, Chornomorets have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Oleksandria and Chornomorets last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 May 2025: Chornomorets 0-0 Oleksandria.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Oleksandria see a goal before the break in 45% of their matches.
Chornomorets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oleksandria 45%, Chornomorets 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Oleksandria) and 45% (Chornomorets).
On the defensive side: Oleksandria keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Chornomorets in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oleksandria home games / Chornomorets away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Oleksandria vs Chornomorets Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Oleksandria and Chornomorets matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Oleksandria's recent matches and 55% of Chornomorets's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Oleksandria and Chornomorets matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Oleksandria's recent games and 45% of Chornomorets's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Oleksandria and Chornomorets matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 45% of Oleksandria's recent matches and 75% of Chornomorets's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Oleksandria run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Chornomorets.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Oleksandria beat Chornomorets 3-0 at CSC Nika, Regular Season - 15, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oleksandria 1.60 xG and Chornomorets 0.79 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Oleksandria beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oleksandria attack 1.22 / defence 0.83 against Chornomorets attack 0.91 / defence 1.08, drawn from 43/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oleksandria 56% | Draw 27% | Chornomorets 17%, with Oleksandria to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oleksandria 46%, Chornomorets 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oleksandria's trading profile (43 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Chornomorets's trading profile (43 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Oleksandria arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 0.95. That form edge translated into the three points. Oleksandria (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. Chornomorets (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.