Oleksandria 1-5 Chornomorets – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Oleksandria at 36%, yet in-form Chornomorets provide a compelling counter-argument — this Oleksandria vs Chornomorets fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Chornomorets make the trip to CSC Nika to face Oleksandria in Premier League, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Friday 22 September 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Oleksandria's overall Premier League record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Oleksandria have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Oleksandria's home record at CSC Nika: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Chornomorets (all games): 6W 0D 4L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Chornomorets have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Chornomorets have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Chornomorets are 0.80 PPG clear of Oleksandria in recent Premier League fixtures (1.80 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Oleksandria lead 1W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Apr 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Oleksandria half-time and goal-timing data (37 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Chornomorets half-time and goal-timing data (37 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oleksandria 57% versus Chornomorets 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oleksandria 46% | Chornomorets 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oleksandria 1.27 xG and Chornomorets 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oleksandria attack 0.900 / defence 1.075 | Chornomorets attack 1.041 / defence 1.218. League average goals — home 1.155 / away 1.113. Chornomorets bring a strong defensive rating of 1.218 — this is suppressing Oleksandria's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Oleksandria games / 37 Chornomorets games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oleksandria 36% | Draw 29% | Chornomorets 35%. Fair-value odds: Oleksandria 2.78 | Draw 3.45 | Chornomorets 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Oleksandria at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Chornomorets (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Oleksandria if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: Oleksandria 40% | Chornomorets 60%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oleksandria vs Chornomorets | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: CSC Nika • Kick-off: Friday 22 Sep 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oleksandria 36% | Draw 29% | Chornomorets 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Oleksandria 1.27 / Chornomorets 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Oleksandria attack 0.900 / def 1.075 | Chornomorets attack 1.041 / def 1.218 | league avg home 1.155 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: Oleksandria (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Oleksandria xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Chornomorets xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oleksandria vs Chornomorets kick off?
Oleksandria vs Chornomorets kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 22 September 2023 at CSC Nika.
What was the final score in Oleksandria vs Chornomorets?
Oleksandria 1 - 5 Chornomorets.
Where is Oleksandria vs Chornomorets being played?
The match is being played at CSC Nika.
What competition is Oleksandria vs Chornomorets part of?
Oleksandria vs Chornomorets is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Oleksandria vs Chornomorets?
Our statistical model gives Oleksandria a 36% chance of winning, Chornomorets a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Oleksandria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oleksandria vs Chornomorets?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Oleksandria and Chornomorets will score (BTTS).
Will Oleksandria vs Chornomorets have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Chornomorets?
Record (3 meetings): Oleksandria 1W | Draws 2 | Chornomorets 0W.
What form are Oleksandria and Chornomorets in?
Oleksandria (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Chornomorets (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Oleksandria's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Chornomorets's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. Flip it around — Chornomorets's attack (1.04x) against Oleksandria's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Oleksandria Win
36%
2.76
29%
3.50
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Oleksandria xG
Total xG
2.51
1.25
Chornomorets xG
2.76
36%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
10%
9.59
10%
10.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 10.1 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.8 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.1 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oleksandria vs Chornomorets?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Oleksandria and Chornomorets expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Oleksandria and 1.25 for Chornomorets, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Oleksandria vs Chornomorets?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Oleksandria come into this having played 37 games, going 12W 16D 9L for 1.41 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Oleksandria, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Chornomorets sit at 1.27 PPG from 37 outings (13W 8D 16L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Chornomorets, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.41 PPG for Oleksandria against 1.27 for Chornomorets. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Oleksandria's home form reads 8W 7D 4L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.63 PPG return.
Away from home, Chornomorets have taken 1.47 points per game from 19 outings (8W 4D 7L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Oleksandria are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Chornomorets are on 1.22 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Defensively: Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oleksandria
Early Season
Chornomorets
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oleksandria and Chornomorets in coming into this match?
Oleksandria have gone 12W 16D 9L in their last 37 games (1.41 PPG), while Chornomorets have gone 13W 8D 16L in their last 37 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oleksandria at home or Chornomorets away?
Oleksandria's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oleksandria at home: 1.63 PPG; Chornomorets away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Oleksandria or Chornomorets been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Chornomorets in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Chornomorets won 1-5 on 22 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Oleksandria have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Chornomorets — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Oleksandria
3
Draws
2
Chornomorets
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Chornomorets?
From 7 meetings on record, Oleksandria have won 2, Chornomorets have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Oleksandria and Chornomorets last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2025, when Chornomorets 0-0 Oleksandria.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Oleksandria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Chornomorets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oleksandria 58%, Chornomorets 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Oleksandria) and 58% (Chornomorets).
On the defensive side: Oleksandria keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oleksandria home games / Chornomorets away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oleksandria play Chornomorets?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Oleksandria's games and 63% of Chornomorets's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Oleksandria vs Chornomorets usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Oleksandria's recent games and 58% of Chornomorets's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Oleksandria and Chornomorets tend to score early?
Oleksandria have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Chornomorets in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Chornomorets run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Oleksandria.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chornomorets beat Oleksandria 1-5 at CSC Nika, Regular Season - 8, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oleksandria 1.27 xG and Chornomorets 1.25 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Chornomorets outscored their 1.25 projection by 3.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oleksandria attack 0.90 / defence 1.07 against Chornomorets attack 1.04 / defence 1.22, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oleksandria 36% | Draw 29% | Chornomorets 35%, with Oleksandria to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Chornomorets win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oleksandria 46%, Chornomorets 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oleksandria's trading profile (37 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Chornomorets's trading profile (37 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Oleksandria 1.41 PPG, Chornomorets 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chornomorets win broke the near-deadlock. Oleksandria (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.37 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Chornomorets (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.