Obolon'-Brovar 1-0 Chornomorets – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Obolon'-Brovar at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Obolon'-Brovar vs Chornomorets encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 24 as Obolon'-Brovar welcome Chornomorets to Obolon Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 12 April 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Obolon'-Brovar have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Obolon'-Brovar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Obolon Arena, Obolon'-Brovar have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Chornomorets stand at 2W 0D 8L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Chornomorets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chornomorets away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Obolon'-Brovar are in the better shape of the two on current Premier League data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Obolon'-Brovar, 2 for Chornomorets and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 4 Oct 2024, ended 0–1 with Chornomorets winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Obolon'-Brovar in-play and half-time data (53 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 24% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (home games); they fail to score in 57% of games.
Chornomorets in-play and half-time data (53 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Obolon'-Brovar 28% versus Chornomorets 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Obolon'-Brovar 34% | Chornomorets 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Obolon'-Brovar 1.25 xG and Chornomorets 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.724 / defence 1.043 | Chornomorets attack 0.885 / defence 1.496. League average goals — home 1.155 / away 0.939. Obolon'-Brovar's attack strength of 0.724 is below the league average — the 1.25 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Chornomorets bring a strong defensive rating of 1.496 — this is suppressing Obolon'-Brovar's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 53 Obolon'-Brovar games / 53 Chornomorets games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Obolon'-Brovar 45% | Draw 29% | Chornomorets 26%. Fair-value odds: Obolon'-Brovar 2.22 | Draw 3.45 | Chornomorets 3.85. Obolon'-Brovar hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Chornomorets lead the H2H ledger, but Obolon'-Brovar carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Obolon'-Brovar at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Obolon'-Brovar offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.12 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Obolon'-Brovar 20% | Chornomorets 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Obolon'-Brovar vs Chornomorets | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Obolon Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Apr 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Obolon'-Brovar 45% | Draw 29% | Chornomorets 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 41% | xG Obolon'-Brovar 1.25 / Chornomorets 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.724 / def 1.043 | Chornomorets attack 0.885 / def 1.496 | league avg home 1.155 / away 0.939 • Poisson stance: Obolon'-Brovar (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Obolon'-Brovar xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Chornomorets xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Obolon'-Brovar vs Chornomorets kick off?
Obolon'-Brovar vs Chornomorets kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 12 April 2025 at Obolon Arena.
What was the final score in Obolon'-Brovar vs Chornomorets?
Obolon'-Brovar 1 - 0 Chornomorets.
Where is Obolon'-Brovar vs Chornomorets being played?
The match is being played at Obolon Arena.
What competition is Obolon'-Brovar vs Chornomorets part of?
Obolon'-Brovar vs Chornomorets is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Obolon'-Brovar vs Chornomorets?
Our statistical model gives Obolon'-Brovar a 45% chance of winning, Chornomorets a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Obolon'-Brovar the favourite.
Will both teams score in Obolon'-Brovar vs Chornomorets?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Obolon'-Brovar and Chornomorets will score (BTTS).
Will Obolon'-Brovar vs Chornomorets have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Obolon'-Brovar and Chornomorets?
Record (3 meetings): Obolon'-Brovar 0W | Draws 1 | Chornomorets 2W.
What form are Obolon'-Brovar and Chornomorets in?
Obolon'-Brovar (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. Chornomorets (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Obolon'-Brovar's attack rating (0.72) and Chornomorets's defence rating (1.50), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Chornomorets's attack versus Obolon'-Brovar's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 1-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Obolon'-Brovar Win
45%
2.21
29%
3.44
26%
3.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Obolon'-Brovar xG
Total xG
2.12
0.87
Chornomorets xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
3.89
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
19%
5.26
7%
13.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 10.4 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.0 | 13.0 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Obolon'-Brovar vs Chornomorets?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Obolon'-Brovar and Chornomorets expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Obolon'-Brovar and 0.87 for Chornomorets, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Obolon'-Brovar vs Chornomorets?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 53 outings, Obolon'-Brovar have picked up 0.94 PPG on a 11W 17D 25L record — D-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Obolon'-Brovar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chornomorets's form line: 15W 5D 33L from 53 games, 0.94 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-W. The sample for Chornomorets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Obolon'-Brovar on 0.94 PPG, Chornomorets on 0.94. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Obolon'-Brovar have posted 1.08 PPG from 25 outings (6W 9D 10L).
On the road, Chornomorets have gone 3W 3D 19L from 25 away games — 0.48 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.94 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Chornomorets's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Obolon'-Brovar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Obolon'-Brovar are averaging 0.58 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Chornomorets are on 1.00 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Obolon'-Brovar have seen both teams score in 28% of their recent games.
Last 53 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Obolon'-Brovar
Blended
Chornomorets
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Obolon'-Brovar and Chornomorets in coming into this match?
Obolon'-Brovar have gone 11W 17D 25L in their last 53 games (0.94 PPG), while Chornomorets have gone 15W 5D 33L in their last 53 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Obolon'-Brovar at home or Chornomorets away?
Obolon'-Brovar's home record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Obolon'-Brovar at home: 1.08 PPG; Chornomorets away: 0.48 PPG.
Have Obolon'-Brovar or Chornomorets been keeping clean sheets recently?
Obolon'-Brovar have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Chornomorets in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Obolon'-Brovar and Chornomorets runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Obolon'-Brovar's record when hosting Chornomorets specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Obolon'-Brovar
1
Draws
2
Chornomorets
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Obolon'-Brovar and Chornomorets?
From 4 meetings on record, Obolon'-Brovar have won 1, Chornomorets have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Obolon'-Brovar and Chornomorets last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2025, when Obolon'-Brovar 1-0 Chornomorets.
Who has won more matches between Obolon'-Brovar and Chornomorets?
Chornomorets have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Obolon'-Brovar see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
Chornomorets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Obolon'-Brovar 24%, Chornomorets 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 28% (Obolon'-Brovar) and 56% (Chornomorets).
On the defensive side: Obolon'-Brovar keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Obolon'-Brovar have failed to score in 56% of games; Chornomorets in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Obolon'-Brovar home games / Chornomorets away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Obolon'-Brovar play Chornomorets?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 24% of Obolon'-Brovar's recent matches and 56% of Chornomorets's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Obolon'-Brovar vs Chornomorets usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 28% of Obolon'-Brovar's recent games and 56% of Chornomorets's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Obolon'-Brovar and Chornomorets tend to score early?
Obolon'-Brovar have had a goal before half-time in 48% of their recent matches, Chornomorets in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Obolon'-Brovar edge out Chornomorets 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Obolon'-Brovar beat Chornomorets 1-0 at Obolon Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Obolon'-Brovar 1.25 xG and Chornomorets 0.87 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Chornomorets landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.72 / defence 1.04 against Chornomorets attack 0.89 / defence 1.50, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Obolon'-Brovar 45% | Draw 29% | Chornomorets 26%, with Obolon'-Brovar to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Obolon'-Brovar 34%, Chornomorets 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Obolon'-Brovar's trading profile (53 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 28% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Chornomorets's trading profile (53 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Obolon'-Brovar 0.94 PPG, Chornomorets 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Obolon'-Brovar win broke the near-deadlock. Obolon'-Brovar (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. Chornomorets (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.