Minai 0-0 Vorskla Poltava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Vorskla Poltava at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Minai vs Vorskla Poltava encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Vorskla Poltava travel to Stadion Mynai to take on Minai. The game is scheduled for Sunday 5 November 2023, 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Minai stand at 0W 5D 5L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Minai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Mynai, Minai have gone 1W 4D 5L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Premier League games this season, Vorskla Poltava have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Vorskla Poltava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vorskla Poltava's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Vorskla Poltava — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Minai have won 1, Vorskla Poltava 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 May 2023, ended 2–0 with Minai winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Minai trading profile (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Vorskla Poltava trading profile (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Minai 45% versus Vorskla Poltava 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Minai 29% | Vorskla Poltava 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Minai 0.85 xG and Vorskla Poltava 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Minai attack 0.703 / defence 1.118 | Vorskla Poltava attack 0.941 / defence 1.087. League average goals — home 1.111 / away 1.203. Minai's attack strength of 0.703 is below the league average — the 0.85 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 42 Minai games / 42 Vorskla Poltava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Minai 24% | Draw 31% | Vorskla Poltava 45%. Fair-value odds: Minai 4.17 | Draw 3.23 | Vorskla Poltava 2.22. Vorskla Poltava hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Vorskla Poltava as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vorskla Poltava offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.11 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Minai 30% | Vorskla Poltava 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Minai vs Vorskla Poltava | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadion Mynai • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Nov 2023, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Minai 24% | Draw 31% | Vorskla Poltava 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Minai 0.85 / Vorskla Poltava 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Minai attack 0.703 / def 1.118 | Vorskla Poltava attack 0.941 / def 1.087 | league avg home 1.111 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: Vorskla Poltava (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Minai xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Vorskla Poltava xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Minai vs Vorskla Poltava kick off?
Minai vs Vorskla Poltava kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 5 November 2023 at Stadion Mynai.
What was the final score in Minai vs Vorskla Poltava?
Minai 0 - 0 Vorskla Poltava.
Where is Minai vs Vorskla Poltava being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Mynai.
What competition is Minai vs Vorskla Poltava part of?
Minai vs Vorskla Poltava is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Minai vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our statistical model gives Minai a 24% chance of winning, Vorskla Poltava a 45% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Vorskla Poltava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Minai vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Minai and Vorskla Poltava will score (BTTS).
Will Minai vs Vorskla Poltava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Minai and Vorskla Poltava?
Record (3 meetings): Minai 1W | Draws 0 | Vorskla Poltava 2W.
What form are Minai and Vorskla Poltava in?
Minai (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. Vorskla Poltava (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Minai's attack rating (0.70) and Vorskla Poltava's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 0.85 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Vorskla Poltava's attack versus Minai's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 0-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vorskla Poltava Win
24%
4.14
31%
3.28
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Minai xG
Total xG
2.11
1.26
Vorskla Poltava xG
4.14
24%
Home win
3.28
31%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
43%
2.33
Win to Nil
7%
14.67
19%
5.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 15.3 | 9.7 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 13.0 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Minai vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Minai and Vorskla Poltava expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Minai and 1.26 for Vorskla Poltava, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Minai vs Vorskla Poltava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Minai's recent record stands at 8W 14D 20L from 42 games, a 0.90 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Minai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vorskla Poltava, meanwhile, have gone 17W 8D 17L across 42 games — 1.40 PPG, with W-D-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Vorskla Poltava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Vorskla Poltava by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Minai heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Minai have managed 3W 7D 10L from 20 games — 0.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Vorskla Poltava's away record stands at 7W 4D 9L across 20 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vorskla Poltava come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Minai are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Vorskla Poltava are on 1.24 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Minai
Blended
Vorskla Poltava
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Minai and Vorskla Poltava in coming into this match?
Minai have gone 8W 14D 20L in their last 42 games (0.90 PPG), while Vorskla Poltava have gone 17W 8D 17L in their last 42 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Minai at home or Vorskla Poltava away?
Vorskla Poltava's away record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Minai at home: 0.80 PPG; Vorskla Poltava away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Minai's record when hosting Vorskla Poltava specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Minai
1
Draws
2
Vorskla Poltava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Minai and Vorskla Poltava?
From 5 meetings on record, Minai have won 2, Vorskla Poltava have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Minai and Vorskla Poltava last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2024, when Vorskla Poltava 2-3 Minai.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Minai see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Vorskla Poltava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Minai 40%, Vorskla Poltava 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Minai) and 55% (Vorskla Poltava).
On the defensive side: Minai have failed to score in 45% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Minai home games / Vorskla Poltava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Minai play Vorskla Poltava?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Minai's recent matches and 60% of Vorskla Poltava's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Minai vs Vorskla Poltava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Minai's recent games and 55% of Vorskla Poltava's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Minai and Vorskla Poltava tend to score early?
Minai have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, Vorskla Poltava in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Minai's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Mynai, Regular Season - 13, as Minai and Vorskla Poltava drew 0-0 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Minai 0.85 xG and Vorskla Poltava 1.26 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Minai fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Vorskla Poltava landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Minai attack 0.70 / defence 1.12 against Vorskla Poltava attack 0.94 / defence 1.09, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Minai 24% | Draw 31% | Vorskla Poltava 45%, with Vorskla Poltava to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Minai 29%, Vorskla Poltava 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Minai's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Vorskla Poltava arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.90. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Minai (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. Vorskla Poltava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.