Minai 0-0 Desna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Minai at 43%, yet in-form Desna provide a compelling counter-argument — this Minai vs Desna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Avanhard plays host to Minai versus Desna in Premier League (matchday 11). Kick-off: Sunday 17 October 2021 at 13:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Minai have collected 0.67 PPG across their last 9 games: 1W 3D 5L. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 0.67 goals per game and conceding 1.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings (11%).
At home, Minai have gone 1W 2D 1L in their last 4 home games (1.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.25 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.67 — Minai are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Desna's record over their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Desna's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 2L across their last 4 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Desna are 0.93 PPG clear of Minai over their recent games (1.60 vs 0.67). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading Data
Minai goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 9 games, 4 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Desna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 9 games, 4 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Minai 44% versus Desna 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Minai 22% | Desna 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Minai 1.41 xG and Desna 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Minai attack 0.944 / defence 1.216 | Desna attack 0.796 / defence 1.377. League average goals — home 1.082 / away 1.194. Desna's defence rating of 1.377 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Minai's projected output up. Desna's attack rating of 0.796 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.16. Minai's defence rating of 1.216 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Desna's projected output up. Data: built from Minai's last 9 games and Desna's last 10.
Result probabilities: Minai 43% | Draw 26% | Desna 31%. Fair-value odds: Minai 2.34 | Draw 3.79 | Desna 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Minai as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Desna (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Minai if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Minai 75% (last 4 home games) | Desna 50% (last 4 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Minai vs Desna | Competition: Premier League, matchday 11 | Venue: Stadion Avanhard • Kick-off: Sunday 17 October 2021 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Minai 43% | Draw 26% | Desna 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Minai 1.41 / Desna 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Minai attack 0.944 / def 1.216 | Desna attack 0.796 / def 1.377 | league avg home 1.082 / away 1.194 • Poisson stance: Minai (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Minai xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Desna xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Minai vs Desna FAQs
What time does Minai vs Desna kick off?
Minai vs Desna kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Sunday 17 October 2021 at Stadion Avanhard.
What was the final score in Minai vs Desna?
Minai 0 - 0 Desna.
Where is Minai vs Desna being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Avanhard.
What competition is Minai vs Desna part of?
Minai vs Desna is a Premier League fixture (matchday 11) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Minai vs Desna?
Our statistical model gives Minai a 43% chance of winning, Desna a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Minai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Minai vs Desna?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Minai and Desna will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Minai vs Desna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Minai's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Desna's defensive record (1.38x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. Flip it around — Desna's attack (0.80x) against Minai's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from Minai's last 9 games and Desna's last 10 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Minai Win
43%
2.34
26%
3.79
31%
3.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Minai xG
Total xG
2.56
1.16
Desna xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
3.23
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
24%
4.08
Win to Nil
13%
7.44
8%
13.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 8.9 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.5 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.8 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Minai vs Desna Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Minai vs Desna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Minai and Desna expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Minai and 1.16 for Desna, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Minai vs Desna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Minai come into this having played 9 games, going 1W 3D 5L for 0.67 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-L.
On the other side, Desna sit at 1.44 PPG from 9 outings (4W 1D 4L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-L across their last five.
Desna carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.77 PPG clear of Minai — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Minai's home form reads 1W 2D 1L across their last 4 home games, a 1.25 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.67 PPG overall — Minai are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Desna have taken 1.00 points per game from their last 4 away games (1W 1D 2L). That's a step down from their 1.44 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Desna's recent record.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Minai are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Desna are on 1.11 scored and 1.78 conceded.
Last 9 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Minai
Blended
Desna
Blended
Minai (Home) vs Desna (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Minai
Blended
Desna
Blended
❓ Minai vs Desna Form FAQs
What form are Minai and Desna in coming into this match?
Minai have gone 1W 3D 5L in their last 9 games (0.67 PPG), while Desna have gone 4W 1D 4L in their last 9 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Minai at home or Desna away?
Minai's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Minai at home: 1.25 PPG; Desna away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 1 H2H match between these sides on record, dating back to October 2021 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent in our data was on 17 October 2021, some 5 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Minai
1
Draws
0
Desna
Recent Meetings
❓ Minai vs Desna H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Minai and Desna?
Across the 1 head-to-head match in our data, Minai have won 0, Desna have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Minai and Desna last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 October 2021: Minai 0-0 Desna.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Minai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 100% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Desna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Minai 75%, Desna 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Minai and 75% for Desna. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Desna in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Minai home games / Desna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Minai vs Desna Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Minai and Desna matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Minai's games and 50% of Desna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Minai and Desna matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Minai's matches and 75% of Desna's.
Do Minai and Desna matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Minai's recent matches and 75% of Desna's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Minai's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Avanhard, Regular Season - 11, as Minai and Desna drew 0-0 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Minai 1.41 xG and Desna 1.16 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Minai fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Desna landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Minai attack 0.94 / defence 1.22 against Desna attack 0.80 / defence 1.38, drawn from 9/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Minai 43% | Draw 26% | Desna 31%, with Minai to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Minai 22%, Desna 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Minai's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Desna's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Desna arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.67. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Minai (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Desna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.