FC Kharkiv 0-3 Zorya Luhansk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Zorya Luhansk at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Kharkiv vs Zorya Luhansk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Zorya Luhansk travel to NSK Olimpijs'kyj to take on FC Kharkiv. The game is scheduled for Friday 28 October 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
FC Kharkiv — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W D L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC Kharkiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC Kharkiv have posted 4W 2D 4L at NSK Olimpijs'kyj — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Zorya Luhansk stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Premier League matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Zorya Luhansk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zorya Luhansk's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Zorya Luhansk are 1.00 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for FC Kharkiv, 1 for Zorya Luhansk and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 7.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2021, ended 1–6 with Zorya Luhansk winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 7.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
FC Kharkiv in-play tendencies (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Zorya Luhansk in-play tendencies (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Kharkiv 38% versus Zorya Luhansk 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Kharkiv 42% | Zorya Luhansk 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Kharkiv 1.34 xG and Zorya Luhansk 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Kharkiv attack 1.040 / defence 0.991 | Zorya Luhansk attack 1.146 / defence 1.065. League average goals — home 1.215 / away 1.251. Data: 26 FC Kharkiv games / 26 Zorya Luhansk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 36% | Draw 25% | Zorya Luhansk 39%. Fair-value odds: FC Kharkiv 2.78 | Draw 4.00 | Zorya Luhansk 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Zorya Luhansk at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zorya Luhansk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: FC Kharkiv 30% | Zorya Luhansk 60%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Kharkiv vs Zorya Luhansk | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: NSK Olimpijs'kyj • Kick-off: Friday 28 Oct 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 36% | Draw 25% | Zorya Luhansk 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG FC Kharkiv 1.34 / Zorya Luhansk 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: FC Kharkiv attack 1.040 / def 0.991 | Zorya Luhansk attack 1.146 / def 1.065 | league avg home 1.215 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: Zorya Luhansk (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
FC Kharkiv xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Zorya Luhansk xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Kharkiv vs Zorya Luhansk kick off?
FC Kharkiv vs Zorya Luhansk kicked off at 15:00 on Friday 28 October 2022 at NSK Olimpijs'kyj.
What was the final score in FC Kharkiv vs Zorya Luhansk?
FC Kharkiv 0 - 3 Zorya Luhansk.
Where is FC Kharkiv vs Zorya Luhansk being played?
The match is being played at NSK Olimpijs'kyj.
What competition is FC Kharkiv vs Zorya Luhansk part of?
FC Kharkiv vs Zorya Luhansk is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win FC Kharkiv vs Zorya Luhansk?
Our statistical model gives FC Kharkiv a 36% chance of winning, Zorya Luhansk a 39% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Zorya Luhansk the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Kharkiv vs Zorya Luhansk?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both FC Kharkiv and Zorya Luhansk will score (BTTS).
Will FC Kharkiv vs Zorya Luhansk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Kharkiv and Zorya Luhansk?
Record (1 meetings): FC Kharkiv 0W | Draws 0 | Zorya Luhansk 1W.
What form are FC Kharkiv and Zorya Luhansk in?
FC Kharkiv (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-L-D. Zorya Luhansk (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FC Kharkiv's attack at 1.04x the league average against Zorya Luhansk's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Zorya Luhansk's attack versus FC Kharkiv's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zorya Luhansk Win
36%
2.81
25%
3.93
39%
2.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
FC Kharkiv xG
Total xG
2.76
1.42
Zorya Luhansk xG
2.81
36%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
2.56
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
24%
4.14
26%
3.84
Win to Nil
9%
11.63
10%
9.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.9 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.0 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.1 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Kharkiv vs Zorya Luhansk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are FC Kharkiv and Zorya Luhansk expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for FC Kharkiv and 1.42 for Zorya Luhansk, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Kharkiv vs Zorya Luhansk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Kharkiv's recent record stands at 8W 5D 13L from 26 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for FC Kharkiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zorya Luhansk, meanwhile, have gone 16W 4D 6L across 26 games — 2.00 PPG, with L-D-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Zorya Luhansk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Zorya Luhansk by 0.88 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Kharkiv heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FC Kharkiv have managed 6W 2D 5L from 13 games — 1.54 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.12 PPG overall — FC Kharkiv are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Zorya Luhansk's away record stands at 7W 2D 4L across 13 trips, a 1.77 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Kharkiv are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Zorya Luhansk are on 2.08 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Defensively: Zorya Luhansk in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Kharkiv
Blended
Zorya Luhansk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Kharkiv and Zorya Luhansk in coming into this match?
FC Kharkiv have gone 8W 5D 13L in their last 26 games (1.12 PPG), while Zorya Luhansk have gone 16W 4D 6L in their last 26 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Kharkiv at home or Zorya Luhansk away?
Zorya Luhansk's away record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Kharkiv at home: 1.54 PPG; Zorya Luhansk away: 1.77 PPG.
Have FC Kharkiv or Zorya Luhansk been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Kharkiv have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Zorya Luhansk in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Oct 2021, when Zorya Luhansk won 1-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Kharkiv's record when hosting Zorya Luhansk specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
FC Kharkiv
1
Draws
5
Zorya Luhansk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Kharkiv and Zorya Luhansk?
From 7 meetings on record, FC Kharkiv have won 1, Zorya Luhansk have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Kharkiv and Zorya Luhansk last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Zorya Luhansk 1-1 FC Kharkiv.
Who has won more matches between FC Kharkiv and Zorya Luhansk?
Zorya Luhansk have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Kharkiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Zorya Luhansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Kharkiv 46%, Zorya Luhansk 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for FC Kharkiv and 69% for Zorya Luhansk. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Kharkiv keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Zorya Luhansk in 31%; FC Kharkiv have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Kharkiv home games / Zorya Luhansk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Kharkiv play Zorya Luhansk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of FC Kharkiv's recent matches and 62% of Zorya Luhansk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Kharkiv vs Zorya Luhansk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of FC Kharkiv's matches and 69% of Zorya Luhansk's.
Do FC Kharkiv and Zorya Luhansk tend to score early?
FC Kharkiv have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Zorya Luhansk in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Zorya Luhansk run riot with a 0-3 hammering of FC Kharkiv.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zorya Luhansk beat FC Kharkiv 0-3 at NSK Olimpijs'kyj, Regular Season - 10, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Kharkiv 1.34 xG and Zorya Luhansk 1.42 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. FC Kharkiv fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Zorya Luhansk outscored their 1.42 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Kharkiv attack 1.04 / defence 0.99 against Zorya Luhansk attack 1.15 / defence 1.06, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Kharkiv 36% | Draw 25% | Zorya Luhansk 39%, with Zorya Luhansk to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Kharkiv 42%, Zorya Luhansk 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Zorya Luhansk's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Zorya Luhansk arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.12. That form edge translated into the three points. FC Kharkiv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Zorya Luhansk (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.15 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.69 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.