FC Kharkiv 1-1 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Kharkiv at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Kharkiv vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi make the trip to Tsentralnyi Stadion to face FC Kharkiv in Premier League, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Saturday 16 May 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC Kharkiv have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W D L D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Tsentralnyi Stadion, FC Kharkiv have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tsentralnyi Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's overall Premier League record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D D D D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for FC Kharkiv, 1.60 for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — FC Kharkiv lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 0.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Nov 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
FC Kharkiv — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 21% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 21% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Kharkiv 34% versus Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 45%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (FC Kharkiv 24% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Kharkiv 1.71 xG and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Kharkiv attack 0.976 / defence 0.734 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.915 / defence 1.359. League average goals — home 1.286 / away 1.261. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi bring a strong defensive rating of 1.359 — this is suppressing FC Kharkiv's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. FC Kharkiv's defence rating of 0.734 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 28 FC Kharkiv games / 28 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 57% | Draw 26% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 17%. Fair-value odds: FC Kharkiv 1.75 | Draw 3.85 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 5.88. The model has a clear lean to FC Kharkiv (57%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Kharkiv are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: FC Kharkiv 20% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Kharkiv vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Tsentralnyi Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 16 May 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 57% | Draw 26% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 48% | xG FC Kharkiv 1.71 / Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: FC Kharkiv attack 0.976 / def 0.734 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.915 / def 1.359 | league avg home 1.286 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: FC Kharkiv (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
FC Kharkiv xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
48%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Kharkiv vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi kick off?
FC Kharkiv vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 16 May 2026 at Tsentralnyi Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Kharkiv vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
FC Kharkiv 1 - 1 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi.
Where is FC Kharkiv vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi being played?
The match is being played at Tsentralnyi Stadion.
What competition is FC Kharkiv vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi part of?
FC Kharkiv vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win FC Kharkiv vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Our statistical model gives FC Kharkiv a 57% chance of winning, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi a 17% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making FC Kharkiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Kharkiv vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both FC Kharkiv and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi will score (BTTS).
Will FC Kharkiv vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Kharkiv and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Record (1 meetings): FC Kharkiv 0W | Draws 1 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0W.
What form are FC Kharkiv and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in?
FC Kharkiv (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-L-D-D. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates FC Kharkiv's attack at 0.98x the league average against Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's defence at 1.36x — combine the two and it projects 1.71 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's attack (0.92x) against FC Kharkiv's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 2-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Kharkiv Win
57%
1.77
26%
3.84
17%
5.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
FC Kharkiv xG
Total xG
2.55
0.85
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
1.77
57%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
5.78
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
18%
5.51
Win to Nil
24%
4.12
3%
31.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.3 | 11.2 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.6 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.4 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Kharkiv vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are FC Kharkiv and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for FC Kharkiv and 0.85 for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Kharkiv vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC Kharkiv's recent record stands at 13W 11D 5L from 29 games, a 1.72 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-D in the last five.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, meanwhile, have gone 8W 7D 14L across 29 games — 1.07 PPG, with D-D-D-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC Kharkiv by 0.65 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Epitsentr Dunayivtsi heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, FC Kharkiv have managed 7W 4D 3L from 14 games — 1.79 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's away record stands at 4W 3D 7L across 14 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Kharkiv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Kharkiv are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 0.62 conceded per game recently; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are on 1.31 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Defensively: FC Kharkiv have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Kharkiv
Current Season
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Kharkiv and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in coming into this match?
FC Kharkiv have gone 13W 11D 5L in their last 29 games (1.72 PPG), while Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have gone 8W 7D 14L in their last 29 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Kharkiv at home or Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away?
FC Kharkiv's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Kharkiv at home: 1.79 PPG; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away: 1.07 PPG.
Have FC Kharkiv or Epitsentr Dunayivtsi been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Kharkiv have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their recent games, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 16 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
FC Kharkiv
2
Draws
0
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Kharkiv and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
From 2 meetings on record, FC Kharkiv have won 0, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Kharkiv and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when FC Kharkiv 1-1 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Kharkiv see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 21% (FC Kharkiv) and 36% (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 21% (FC Kharkiv) and 57% (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi).
On the defensive side: FC Kharkiv keep a clean sheet in 64% of their matches; FC Kharkiv have failed to score in 29% of games; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Kharkiv home games / Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Kharkiv play Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 21% of FC Kharkiv's recent matches and 36% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Kharkiv vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 21% of FC Kharkiv's recent games and 57% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Kharkiv and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi tend to score early?
FC Kharkiv have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Kharkiv and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Tsentralnyi Stadion, Regular Season - 29, as FC Kharkiv and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi drew 1-1 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Kharkiv 1.71 xG and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0.85 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Kharkiv attack 0.98 / defence 0.73 against Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.92 / defence 1.36, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Kharkiv 57% | Draw 26% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 17%, with FC Kharkiv to win its most likely call at 57%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Kharkiv 24%, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Kharkiv arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.