Lviv 2-1 Ruh Lviv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ruh Lviv at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lviv vs Ruh Lviv fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ruh Lviv make the trip to Stadion SKIF to face Lviv in Premier League, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Thursday 10 November 2022 at 11:00 UTC.
Form
Lviv (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion SKIF, Lviv have gone 1W 3D 6L this season (10 games, 0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Ruh Lviv have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ruh Lviv's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Ruh Lviv arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.10 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Lviv, 1 for Ruh Lviv and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2021, ended 0–1 with Ruh Lviv winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Lviv — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Ruh Lviv — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lviv 48% versus Ruh Lviv 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Lviv 41% | Ruh Lviv 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lviv 1.32 xG and Ruh Lviv 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lviv attack 0.899 / defence 1.277 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.897 / defence 1.151. League average goals — home 1.276 / away 1.237. Data: 28 Lviv games / 27 Ruh Lviv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lviv 35% | Draw 26% | Ruh Lviv 39%. Fair-value odds: Lviv 2.86 | Draw 3.85 | Ruh Lviv 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ruh Lviv are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ruh Lviv if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Lviv 60% | Ruh Lviv 30%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lviv vs Ruh Lviv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadion SKIF • Kick-off: Thursday 10 Nov 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lviv 35% | Draw 26% | Ruh Lviv 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Lviv 1.32 / Ruh Lviv 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Lviv attack 0.899 / def 1.277 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.897 / def 1.151 | league avg home 1.276 / away 1.237 • Poisson stance: Ruh Lviv (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Lviv xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Ruh Lviv xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lviv vs Ruh Lviv kick off?
Lviv vs Ruh Lviv kicked off at 11:00 on Thursday 10 November 2022 at Stadion SKIF.
What was the final score in Lviv vs Ruh Lviv?
Lviv 2 - 1 Ruh Lviv.
Where is Lviv vs Ruh Lviv being played?
The match is being played at Stadion SKIF.
What competition is Lviv vs Ruh Lviv part of?
Lviv vs Ruh Lviv is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Lviv vs Ruh Lviv?
Our statistical model gives Lviv a 35% chance of winning, Ruh Lviv a 39% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Ruh Lviv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lviv vs Ruh Lviv?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Lviv and Ruh Lviv will score (BTTS).
Will Lviv vs Ruh Lviv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lviv and Ruh Lviv?
Record (1 meetings): Lviv 0W | Draws 0 | Ruh Lviv 1W.
What form are Lviv and Ruh Lviv in?
Lviv (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. Ruh Lviv (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Lviv's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Ruh Lviv's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. Flip it around — Ruh Lviv's attack (0.90x) against Lviv's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
These ratings are built from 28/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ruh Lviv Win
35%
2.85
26%
3.91
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Lviv xG
Total xG
2.74
1.42
Ruh Lviv xG
2.85
35%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
24%
4.12
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
8%
11.77
10%
9.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 9.2 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.1 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.0 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lviv vs Ruh Lviv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Lviv and Ruh Lviv expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Lviv and 1.42 for Ruh Lviv, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Lviv vs Ruh Lviv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lviv's recent record stands at 5W 7D 15L from 27 games, a 0.81 PPG return, with D-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ruh Lviv, meanwhile, have gone 7W 8D 12L across 27 games — 1.07 PPG, with L-L-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Ruh Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.81 PPG for Lviv against 1.07 for Ruh Lviv. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Lviv have managed 1W 4D 8L from 13 games — 0.54 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ruh Lviv's away record stands at 2W 3D 8L across 13 trips, a 0.69 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lviv are averaging 0.74 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Ruh Lviv are on 1.04 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 27 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lviv
Blended
Ruh Lviv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lviv and Ruh Lviv in coming into this match?
Lviv have gone 5W 7D 15L in their last 27 games (0.81 PPG), while Ruh Lviv have gone 7W 8D 12L in their last 27 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lviv at home or Ruh Lviv away?
Ruh Lviv's away record (0.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lviv at home: 0.54 PPG; Ruh Lviv away: 0.69 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Lviv
0
Draws
2
Ruh Lviv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lviv and Ruh Lviv?
From 3 meetings on record, Lviv have won 1, Ruh Lviv have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lviv and Ruh Lviv last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2023, when Ruh Lviv 2-0 Lviv.
Who has won more matches between Lviv and Ruh Lviv?
Ruh Lviv have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lviv 62%, Ruh Lviv 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Lviv) and 31% (Ruh Lviv).
On the defensive side: Lviv have failed to score in 38% of games; Ruh Lviv in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lviv home games / Ruh Lviv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lviv play Ruh Lviv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Lviv's recent matches and 38% of Ruh Lviv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lviv vs Ruh Lviv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Lviv's recent games and 31% of Ruh Lviv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lviv and Ruh Lviv tend to score early?
Lviv have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Ruh Lviv in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lviv edge out Ruh Lviv 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lviv beat Ruh Lviv 2-1 at Stadion SKIF, Regular Season - 12, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lviv 1.32 xG and Ruh Lviv 1.42 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lviv attack 0.90 / defence 1.28 against Ruh Lviv attack 0.90 / defence 1.15, drawn from 28/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lviv 35% | Draw 26% | Ruh Lviv 39%, with Ruh Lviv to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Lviv win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lviv 41%, Ruh Lviv 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lviv's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lviv 0.81 PPG, Ruh Lviv 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lviv win broke the near-deadlock. Lviv (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.77 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.