Lviv 0-2 Desna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Desna at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lviv vs Desna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Arena L'viv plays host to Lviv versus Desna in Premier League, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Sunday 7 November 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Lviv's overall Premier League record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W L L D W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lviv at Arena L'viv this season: 0W 3D 4L from 7 home games — 0.43 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.57 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Desna (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Desna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Desna have posted 1W 2D 3L from 6 away outings — 0.83 PPG. Away from home they average 0.83 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Lviv, 0.90 for Desna — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Lviv goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Desna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lviv 54% versus Desna 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lviv 38% | Desna 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lviv 1.06 xG and Desna 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lviv attack 0.692 / defence 1.396 | Desna attack 0.715 / defence 1.420. League average goals — home 1.080 / away 1.219. Lviv's attack strength of 0.692 is below the league average — the 1.06 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Desna bring a strong defensive rating of 1.420 — this is suppressing Lviv's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Lviv games / 13 Desna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lviv 31% | Draw 31% | Desna 39%. Fair-value odds: Lviv 3.23 | Draw 3.23 | Desna 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Desna as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Desna if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.28 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Lviv 57% | Desna 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lviv vs Desna | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Arena L'viv • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Nov 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lviv 31% | Draw 31% | Desna 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Lviv 1.06 / Desna 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Lviv attack 0.692 / def 1.396 | Desna attack 0.715 / def 1.420 | league avg home 1.080 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: Desna (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Lviv xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Desna xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lviv vs Desna kick off?
Lviv vs Desna kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 7 November 2021 at Arena L'viv.
What was the final score in Lviv vs Desna?
Lviv 0 - 2 Desna.
Where is Lviv vs Desna being played?
The match is being played at Arena L'viv.
What competition is Lviv vs Desna part of?
Lviv vs Desna is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Lviv vs Desna?
Our statistical model gives Lviv a 31% chance of winning, Desna a 39% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Desna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lviv vs Desna?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Lviv and Desna will score (BTTS).
Will Lviv vs Desna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lviv and Desna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lviv and Desna in?
Lviv (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. Desna (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Lviv's attack at 0.69x the league average against Desna's defence at 1.42x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Desna's attack (0.71x) against Lviv's defence (1.40x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 0-1 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Desna Win
31%
3.25
31%
3.26
39%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Lviv xG
Total xG
2.28
1.22
Desna xG
3.25
31%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
2.60
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
35%
2.89
Win to Nil
9%
10.97
13%
7.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 12.5 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.0 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lviv vs Desna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Lviv and Desna expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Lviv and 1.22 for Desna, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Lviv vs Desna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 13 outings, Lviv have picked up 0.77 PPG on a 2W 4D 7L record — W-L-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Desna's form line: 5W 3D 5L from 13 games, 1.38 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-L. The sample for Desna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Desna are the form team by 0.61 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lviv.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Lviv have posted 0.33 PPG from 6 outings (0W 2D 4L). That actually lags their 0.77 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Desna have gone 1W 2D 3L from 6 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.38 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Desna's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Desna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lviv are averaging 0.69 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Desna are on 1.15 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Last 13 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lviv
Blended
Desna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lviv and Desna in coming into this match?
Lviv have gone 2W 4D 7L in their last 13 games (0.77 PPG), while Desna have gone 5W 3D 5L in their last 13 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lviv at home or Desna away?
Desna's away record (0.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lviv at home: 0.33 PPG; Desna away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Lviv or Desna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lviv have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Desna in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 1 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 November 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Lviv
0
Draws
1
Desna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lviv and Desna?
From 1 meetings on record, Lviv have won 0, Desna have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lviv and Desna last play each other?
They last met on 7 November 2021, when Lviv 0-2 Desna.
Who has won more matches between Lviv and Desna?
Desna have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Desna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lviv 50%, Desna 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Lviv) and 67% (Desna). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lviv have failed to score in 50% of games; Desna in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lviv home games / Desna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lviv play Desna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Lviv's recent matches and 50% of Desna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lviv vs Desna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Lviv's matches and 67% of Desna's.
Do Lviv and Desna tend to score early?
Lviv have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Desna in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Desna cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Lviv.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Desna beat Lviv 0-2 at Arena L'viv, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lviv 1.06 xG and Desna 1.22 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Lviv fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lviv attack 0.69 / defence 1.40 against Desna attack 0.71 / defence 1.42, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lviv 31% | Draw 31% | Desna 39%, with Desna to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lviv 38%, Desna 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lviv's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Desna's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Desna arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.77. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Desna (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.