LNZ Cherkasy 1-0 Livyi Bereh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates LNZ Cherkasy at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this LNZ Cherkasy vs Livyi Bereh fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
LNZ Cherkasy host Livyi Bereh at Cherkasy Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 4 August 2024 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, LNZ Cherkasy stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. LNZ Cherkasy haven't played a Premier League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
LNZ Cherkasy's home record at Cherkasy Arena: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Livyi Bereh — All Games: 1W 2D 1L from 4 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.25 PPG. Last five: L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.25 per game is modest, conceding 0.75 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Livyi Bereh have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — LNZ Cherkasy at 1.60 PPG versus Livyi Bereh's 1.25. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
LNZ Cherkasy in-play tendencies (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
Livyi Bereh in-play tendencies (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — LNZ Cherkasy 50% versus Livyi Bereh 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (LNZ Cherkasy 50% | Livyi Bereh 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects LNZ Cherkasy 1.37 xG and Livyi Bereh 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.946 / defence 1.023 | Livyi Bereh attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.257 / away 1.140. Data: 30 LNZ Cherkasy games / 0 Livyi Bereh games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 46% | Draw 27% | Livyi Bereh 27%. Fair-value odds: LNZ Cherkasy 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Livyi Bereh 3.70. LNZ Cherkasy hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, LNZ Cherkasy are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on LNZ Cherkasy offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.36 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: LNZ Cherkasy 40% | Livyi Bereh 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: LNZ Cherkasy vs Livyi Bereh | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Cherkasy Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Aug 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 46% | Draw 27% | Livyi Bereh 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG LNZ Cherkasy 1.37 / Livyi Bereh 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.946 / def 1.023 | Livyi Bereh attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.257 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: LNZ Cherkasy (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Livyi Bereh xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does LNZ Cherkasy vs Livyi Bereh kick off?
LNZ Cherkasy vs Livyi Bereh kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 4 August 2024 at Cherkasy Arena.
What was the final score in LNZ Cherkasy vs Livyi Bereh?
LNZ Cherkasy 1 - 0 Livyi Bereh.
Where is LNZ Cherkasy vs Livyi Bereh being played?
The match is being played at Cherkasy Arena.
What competition is LNZ Cherkasy vs Livyi Bereh part of?
LNZ Cherkasy vs Livyi Bereh is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win LNZ Cherkasy vs Livyi Bereh?
Our statistical model gives LNZ Cherkasy a 46% chance of winning, Livyi Bereh a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making LNZ Cherkasy the favourite.
Will both teams score in LNZ Cherkasy vs Livyi Bereh?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both LNZ Cherkasy and Livyi Bereh will score (BTTS).
Will LNZ Cherkasy vs Livyi Bereh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between LNZ Cherkasy and Livyi Bereh?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are LNZ Cherkasy and Livyi Bereh in?
LNZ Cherkasy (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Livyi Bereh (all comps): 1W-2D-1L in 4 | 1.25 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 0.75 | L5 L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates LNZ Cherkasy's attack at 0.95x the league average against Livyi Bereh's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Livyi Bereh's attack versus LNZ Cherkasy's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 0-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
LNZ Cherkasy Win
46%
2.20
27%
3.66
27%
3.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Total xG
2.36
0.99
Livyi Bereh xG
2.20
46%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
3.68
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
25%
3.93
Win to Nil
17%
5.92
7%
14.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 9.4 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 12.8 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for LNZ Cherkasy vs Livyi Bereh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are LNZ Cherkasy and Livyi Bereh expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for LNZ Cherkasy and 0.99 for Livyi Bereh, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for LNZ Cherkasy vs Livyi Bereh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
LNZ Cherkasy come into this having played 4 games, going 3W 0D 1L for 2.25 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W. LNZ Cherkasy haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Livyi Bereh sit at 1.25 PPG from 4 outings (1W 2D 1L), a run that reads L-D-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Livyi Bereh, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
LNZ Cherkasy carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Livyi Bereh — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
LNZ Cherkasy are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game recently; Livyi Bereh are on 1.25 scored and 0.75 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Last 4 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
LNZ Cherkasy
Pre-Season
Livyi Bereh
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are LNZ Cherkasy and Livyi Bereh in coming into this match?
LNZ Cherkasy have gone 3W 0D 1L in their last 4 games (2.25 PPG), while Livyi Bereh have gone 1W 2D 1L in their last 4 (1.25 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between LNZ Cherkasy and Livyi Bereh runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 December 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
LNZ Cherkasy
0
Draws
1
Livyi Bereh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between LNZ Cherkasy and Livyi Bereh?
From 2 meetings on record, LNZ Cherkasy have won 1, Livyi Bereh have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did LNZ Cherkasy and Livyi Bereh last play each other?
They last met on 7 December 2024, when Livyi Bereh 3-1 LNZ Cherkasy.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
LNZ Cherkasy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Livyi Bereh see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — LNZ Cherkasy 50%, Livyi Bereh 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (LNZ Cherkasy) and 25% (Livyi Bereh).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = LNZ Cherkasy home games / Livyi Bereh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when LNZ Cherkasy play Livyi Bereh?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent matches and 50% of Livyi Bereh's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is LNZ Cherkasy vs Livyi Bereh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent games and 25% of Livyi Bereh's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do LNZ Cherkasy and Livyi Bereh tend to score early?
LNZ Cherkasy have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Livyi Bereh in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as LNZ Cherkasy edge out Livyi Bereh 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
LNZ Cherkasy beat Livyi Bereh 1-0 at Cherkasy Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting LNZ Cherkasy 1.37 xG and Livyi Bereh 0.99 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Livyi Bereh landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.95 / defence 1.02 against Livyi Bereh attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 30/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it LNZ Cherkasy 46% | Draw 27% | Livyi Bereh 27%, with LNZ Cherkasy to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (LNZ Cherkasy 50%, Livyi Bereh 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Livyi Bereh's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, LNZ Cherkasy arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 1.25. Form held, and they took the win. Livyi Bereh managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.