LNZ Cherkasy 2-0 Kolos Kovalivka – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates LNZ Cherkasy at 36% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as LNZ Cherkasy face Kolos Kovalivka.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Kolos Kovalivka make the trip to Cherkasy Arena to face LNZ Cherkasy in Premier League (matchday 21). The match kicks off on Sunday 16 March 2025 at 13:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
LNZ Cherkasy have collected 0.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, LNZ Cherkasy have gone 5W 1D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — LNZ Cherkasy are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Kolos Kovalivka (all games): 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Kolos Kovalivka away from home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.70 PPG for LNZ Cherkasy against 1.00 for Kolos Kovalivka. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for LNZ Cherkasy, 0 for Kolos Kovalivka and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 16 Sep 2024, ended LNZ Cherkasy 1–1 Kolos Kovalivka — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
LNZ Cherkasy — key trading statistics (last 50 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Kolos Kovalivka — key trading statistics (last 50 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 46% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 56%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — LNZ Cherkasy 50% versus Kolos Kovalivka 32%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (LNZ Cherkasy 44% | Kolos Kovalivka 18%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects LNZ Cherkasy 1.10 xG and Kolos Kovalivka 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.943 / defence 1.163 | Kolos Kovalivka attack 1.021 / defence 0.940. League average goals — home 1.241 / away 0.884. Data: built from LNZ Cherkasy's last 50 games and Kolos Kovalivka's last 50.
Result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 36% | Draw 30% | Kolos Kovalivka 34%. Fair-value odds: LNZ Cherkasy 2.74 | Draw 3.39 | Kolos Kovalivka 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates LNZ Cherkasy as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on LNZ Cherkasy if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.15 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (LNZ Cherkasy's last 10 home games and Kolos Kovalivka's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: LNZ Cherkasy 50% (last 10 home games) | Kolos Kovalivka 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: LNZ Cherkasy vs Kolos Kovalivka | Competition: Premier League, matchday 21 | Venue: Cherkasy Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 16 March 2025 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 36% | Draw 30% | Kolos Kovalivka 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% (Under 64%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG LNZ Cherkasy 1.10 / Kolos Kovalivka 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.943 / def 1.163 | Kolos Kovalivka attack 1.021 / def 0.940 | league avg home 1.241 / away 0.884 • Poisson stance: LNZ Cherkasy (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Kolos Kovalivka xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ LNZ Cherkasy vs Kolos Kovalivka FAQs
What time does LNZ Cherkasy vs Kolos Kovalivka kick off?
LNZ Cherkasy vs Kolos Kovalivka kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Sunday 16 March 2025 at Cherkasy Arena.
What was the final score in LNZ Cherkasy vs Kolos Kovalivka?
LNZ Cherkasy 2 - 0 Kolos Kovalivka.
Where is LNZ Cherkasy vs Kolos Kovalivka being played?
The match is being played at Cherkasy Arena.
What competition is LNZ Cherkasy vs Kolos Kovalivka part of?
LNZ Cherkasy vs Kolos Kovalivka is a Premier League fixture (matchday 21) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win LNZ Cherkasy vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Our statistical model gives LNZ Cherkasy a 36% chance of winning, Kolos Kovalivka a 34% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making LNZ Cherkasy the favourite.
Will both teams score in LNZ Cherkasy vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both LNZ Cherkasy and Kolos Kovalivka will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will LNZ Cherkasy vs Kolos Kovalivka have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (64%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
LNZ Cherkasy's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Kolos Kovalivka's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. Flip it around — Kolos Kovalivka's attack (1.02x) against LNZ Cherkasy's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from LNZ Cherkasy's last 50 games and Kolos Kovalivka's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
LNZ Cherkasy Win
36%
2.74
30%
3.39
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Total xG
2.15
1.05
Kolos Kovalivka xG
2.74
36%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
13%
7.83
11%
8.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 12.2 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 7.4 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ LNZ Cherkasy vs Kolos Kovalivka Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for LNZ Cherkasy vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are LNZ Cherkasy and Kolos Kovalivka expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for LNZ Cherkasy and 1.05 for Kolos Kovalivka, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for LNZ Cherkasy vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
LNZ Cherkasy come into this having played 50 games, going 17W 12D 21L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-L.
On the other side, Kolos Kovalivka sit at 1.00 PPG from 50 outings (10W 20D 20L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.26 PPG for LNZ Cherkasy against 1.00 for Kolos Kovalivka. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
LNZ Cherkasy's home form reads 9W 4D 11L across their last 24 home games, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Kolos Kovalivka have taken 1.08 points per game from their last 24 away games (6W 8D 10L).
Attack vs Defence
LNZ Cherkasy are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Kolos Kovalivka are on 0.70 scored and 0.96 conceded.
Defensively: Kolos Kovalivka in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
LNZ Cherkasy
Blended
Kolos Kovalivka
Blended
LNZ Cherkasy (Home) vs Kolos Kovalivka (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
LNZ Cherkasy
Blended
Kolos Kovalivka
Blended
❓ LNZ Cherkasy vs Kolos Kovalivka Form FAQs
What form are LNZ Cherkasy and Kolos Kovalivka in coming into this match?
LNZ Cherkasy have gone 17W 12D 21L in their last 50 games (1.26 PPG), while Kolos Kovalivka have gone 10W 20D 20L in their last 50 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — LNZ Cherkasy at home or Kolos Kovalivka away?
LNZ Cherkasy's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — LNZ Cherkasy at home: 1.29 PPG; Kolos Kovalivka away: 1.08 PPG.
Have LNZ Cherkasy or Kolos Kovalivka been keeping clean sheets recently?
LNZ Cherkasy have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Kolos Kovalivka in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between LNZ Cherkasy and Kolos Kovalivka, the earliest from November 2023. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 18 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, LNZ Cherkasy have gone 2W 1D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Kolos Kovalivka — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
LNZ Cherkasy
2
Draws
1
Kolos Kovalivka
Recent Meetings
❓ LNZ Cherkasy vs Kolos Kovalivka H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between LNZ Cherkasy and Kolos Kovalivka?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, LNZ Cherkasy have won 3, Kolos Kovalivka have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did LNZ Cherkasy and Kolos Kovalivka last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 April 2026: Kolos Kovalivka 1-0 LNZ Cherkasy.
Who has won more matches between LNZ Cherkasy and Kolos Kovalivka?
LNZ Cherkasy have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
LNZ Cherkasy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Kolos Kovalivka see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — LNZ Cherkasy 50%, Kolos Kovalivka 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (LNZ Cherkasy) and 25% (Kolos Kovalivka).
On the defensive side: Kolos Kovalivka in 38%; LNZ Cherkasy have failed to score in 29% of games; Kolos Kovalivka in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = LNZ Cherkasy home games / Kolos Kovalivka away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ LNZ Cherkasy vs Kolos Kovalivka Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in LNZ Cherkasy and Kolos Kovalivka matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent matches and 38% of Kolos Kovalivka's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are LNZ Cherkasy and Kolos Kovalivka matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent games and 25% of Kolos Kovalivka's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do LNZ Cherkasy and Kolos Kovalivka matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent matches and 46% of Kolos Kovalivka's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
LNZ Cherkasy cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Kolos Kovalivka.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
LNZ Cherkasy beat Kolos Kovalivka 2-0 at Cherkasy Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting LNZ Cherkasy 1.10 xG and Kolos Kovalivka 1.05 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. LNZ Cherkasy beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Kolos Kovalivka landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.94 / defence 1.16 against Kolos Kovalivka attack 1.02 / defence 0.94, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it LNZ Cherkasy 36% | Draw 30% | Kolos Kovalivka 34%, with LNZ Cherkasy to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 31% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (LNZ Cherkasy 44%, Kolos Kovalivka 18%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Kolos Kovalivka's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — LNZ Cherkasy 1.26 PPG, Kolos Kovalivka 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the LNZ Cherkasy win broke the near-deadlock. LNZ Cherkasy (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Kolos Kovalivka (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.