LNZ Cherkasy 2-1 Inhulets – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Inhulets at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this LNZ Cherkasy vs Inhulets fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
LNZ Cherkasy and Inhulets meet at Cherkasy Arena in Premier League, Relegation Round. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 14 June 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
LNZ Cherkasy (all games): 0W 1D 0L across 1 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. LNZ Cherkasy have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Inhulets have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Inhulets's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 0.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: LNZ Cherkasy 0W, Inhulets 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Jun 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects LNZ Cherkasy 0.96 xG and Inhulets 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Inhulets attack 0.755 / defence 0.985. League average goals — home 1.143 / away 1.173. Data: 0 LNZ Cherkasy games / 47 Inhulets games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 33% | Draw 31% | Inhulets 36%. Fair-value odds: LNZ Cherkasy 3.03 | Draw 3.23 | Inhulets 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Inhulets at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Inhulets if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.98 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: LNZ Cherkasy vs Inhulets | Competition: Premier League, Relegation Round | Venue: Cherkasy Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 14 Jun 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 33% | Draw 31% | Inhulets 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG LNZ Cherkasy 0.96 / Inhulets 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Inhulets attack 0.755 / def 0.985 | league avg home 1.143 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: Inhulets (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Inhulets xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does LNZ Cherkasy vs Inhulets kick off?
LNZ Cherkasy vs Inhulets kicked off at 13:00 on Wednesday 14 June 2023 at Cherkasy Arena.
What was the final score in LNZ Cherkasy vs Inhulets?
LNZ Cherkasy 2 - 1 Inhulets.
Where is LNZ Cherkasy vs Inhulets being played?
The match is being played at Cherkasy Arena.
What competition is LNZ Cherkasy vs Inhulets part of?
LNZ Cherkasy vs Inhulets is a Relegation Round fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win LNZ Cherkasy vs Inhulets?
Our statistical model gives LNZ Cherkasy a 33% chance of winning, Inhulets a 36% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Inhulets the favourite.
Will both teams score in LNZ Cherkasy vs Inhulets?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both LNZ Cherkasy and Inhulets will score (BTTS).
Will LNZ Cherkasy vs Inhulets have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between LNZ Cherkasy and Inhulets?
Record (1 meetings): LNZ Cherkasy 0W | Draws 1 | Inhulets 0W.
What form are LNZ Cherkasy and Inhulets in?
LNZ Cherkasy (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D. Inhulets (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates LNZ Cherkasy's attack at 0.85x the league average against Inhulets's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 0.96 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Inhulets's attack (0.76x) against LNZ Cherkasy's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 0/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 0-1 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Inhulets Win
33%
3.04
31%
3.22
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Total xG
1.98
1.02
Inhulets xG
3.04
33%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
38%
2.60
Win to Nil
12%
8.42
14%
7.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.9 | 14.1 | 7.2 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.5 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for LNZ Cherkasy vs Inhulets?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are LNZ Cherkasy and Inhulets expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for LNZ Cherkasy and 1.02 for Inhulets, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for LNZ Cherkasy vs Inhulets?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 1 outings, LNZ Cherkasy have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 0W 1D 0L record — D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for LNZ Cherkasy, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Inhulets's form line: 0W 1D 0L from 1 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D. It's still early in the season for Inhulets, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for LNZ Cherkasy against 1.00 for Inhulets. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
LNZ Cherkasy are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Inhulets are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: LNZ Cherkasy have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Inhulets in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
LNZ Cherkasy
Early Season
Inhulets
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are LNZ Cherkasy and Inhulets in coming into this match?
LNZ Cherkasy have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while Inhulets have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 (1.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since June 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, LNZ Cherkasy have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Inhulets — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
LNZ Cherkasy
2
Draws
0
Inhulets
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between LNZ Cherkasy and Inhulets?
From 4 meetings on record, LNZ Cherkasy have won 2, Inhulets have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did LNZ Cherkasy and Inhulets last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2025, when Inhulets 0-0 LNZ Cherkasy.
Who has won more matches between LNZ Cherkasy and Inhulets?
LNZ Cherkasy have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = LNZ Cherkasy home games / Inhulets away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when LNZ Cherkasy play Inhulets?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of LNZ Cherkasy's games and 100% of Inhulets's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is LNZ Cherkasy vs Inhulets usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent games and 0% of Inhulets's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do LNZ Cherkasy and Inhulets tend to score early?
LNZ Cherkasy have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Inhulets in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as LNZ Cherkasy defy the odds to beat Inhulets 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
LNZ Cherkasy beat Inhulets 2-1 at Cherkasy Arena, Relegation Round, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting LNZ Cherkasy 0.96 xG and Inhulets 1.02 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. LNZ Cherkasy beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Inhulets attack 0.76 / defence 0.98, drawn from 0/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it LNZ Cherkasy 33% | Draw 31% | Inhulets 36%, with Inhulets to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual LNZ Cherkasy win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (LNZ Cherkasy 0%, Inhulets 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — LNZ Cherkasy 1.00 PPG, Inhulets 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the LNZ Cherkasy win broke the near-deadlock. LNZ Cherkasy scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Inhulets shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.