LNZ Cherkasy 0-0 Kryvbas KR – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kryvbas KR at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this LNZ Cherkasy vs Kryvbas KR encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Kryvbas KR make the trip to Cherkasy Arena to face LNZ Cherkasy in Premier League, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Saturday 26 April 2025 at 13:30 UTC.
Form
LNZ Cherkasy (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for LNZ Cherkasy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, LNZ Cherkasy have posted 4W 1D 5L at Cherkasy Arena — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — LNZ Cherkasy are significantly better at Cherkasy Arena than their overall form suggests.
Kryvbas KR have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Kryvbas KR, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Kryvbas KR have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Kryvbas KR arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Kryvbas KR, who have claimed 3 wins from 3 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2024, ended 1–3 with Kryvbas KR winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Kryvbas KR have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
LNZ Cherkasy half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Kryvbas KR half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — LNZ Cherkasy 48% versus Kryvbas KR 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (LNZ Cherkasy 43% | Kryvbas KR 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects LNZ Cherkasy 1.01 xG and Kryvbas KR 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.963 / defence 1.192 | Kryvbas KR attack 0.890 / defence 0.884. League average goals — home 1.189 / away 1.025. Data: 55 LNZ Cherkasy games / 54 Kryvbas KR games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 33% | Draw 30% | Kryvbas KR 37%. Fair-value odds: LNZ Cherkasy 3.03 | Draw 3.33 | Kryvbas KR 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Kryvbas KR as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kryvbas KR if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.10 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates are neutral: LNZ Cherkasy 60% | Kryvbas KR 40%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: LNZ Cherkasy vs Kryvbas KR | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Cherkasy Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Apr 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 33% | Draw 30% | Kryvbas KR 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG LNZ Cherkasy 1.01 / Kryvbas KR 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.963 / def 1.192 | Kryvbas KR attack 0.890 / def 0.884 | league avg home 1.189 / away 1.025 • Poisson stance: Kryvbas KR (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Kryvbas KR xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does LNZ Cherkasy vs Kryvbas KR kick off?
LNZ Cherkasy vs Kryvbas KR kicked off at 13:30 on Saturday 26 April 2025 at Cherkasy Arena.
What was the final score in LNZ Cherkasy vs Kryvbas KR?
LNZ Cherkasy 0 - 0 Kryvbas KR.
Where is LNZ Cherkasy vs Kryvbas KR being played?
The match is being played at Cherkasy Arena.
What competition is LNZ Cherkasy vs Kryvbas KR part of?
LNZ Cherkasy vs Kryvbas KR is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win LNZ Cherkasy vs Kryvbas KR?
Our statistical model gives LNZ Cherkasy a 33% chance of winning, Kryvbas KR a 37% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Kryvbas KR the favourite.
Will both teams score in LNZ Cherkasy vs Kryvbas KR?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both LNZ Cherkasy and Kryvbas KR will score (BTTS).
Will LNZ Cherkasy vs Kryvbas KR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between LNZ Cherkasy and Kryvbas KR?
Record (3 meetings): LNZ Cherkasy 0W | Draws 0 | Kryvbas KR 3W.
What form are LNZ Cherkasy and Kryvbas KR in?
LNZ Cherkasy (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Kryvbas KR (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates LNZ Cherkasy's attack at 0.96x the league average against Kryvbas KR's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Kryvbas KR's attack (0.89x) against LNZ Cherkasy's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 55/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 0-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kryvbas KR Win
33%
3.02
30%
3.34
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Total xG
2.10
1.09
Kryvbas KR xG
3.02
33%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
11%
8.97
13%
7.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 13.3 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.5 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for LNZ Cherkasy vs Kryvbas KR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are LNZ Cherkasy and Kryvbas KR expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for LNZ Cherkasy and 1.09 for Kryvbas KR, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for LNZ Cherkasy vs Kryvbas KR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
LNZ Cherkasy's recent record stands at 18W 13D 23L from 54 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for LNZ Cherkasy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kryvbas KR, meanwhile, have gone 28W 11D 15L across 54 games — 1.76 PPG, with W-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Kryvbas KR is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Kryvbas KR by 0.52 — a real, if not enormous, edge over LNZ Cherkasy heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, LNZ Cherkasy have managed 10W 4D 12L from 26 games — 1.31 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kryvbas KR's away record stands at 14W 5D 7L across 26 trips, a 1.81 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kryvbas KR come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
LNZ Cherkasy are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Kryvbas KR are on 1.46 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Kryvbas KR in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
LNZ Cherkasy
Blended
Kryvbas KR
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are LNZ Cherkasy and Kryvbas KR in coming into this match?
LNZ Cherkasy have gone 18W 13D 23L in their last 54 games (1.24 PPG), while Kryvbas KR have gone 28W 11D 15L in their last 54 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — LNZ Cherkasy at home or Kryvbas KR away?
Kryvbas KR's away record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — LNZ Cherkasy at home: 1.31 PPG; Kryvbas KR away: 1.81 PPG.
Have LNZ Cherkasy or Kryvbas KR been keeping clean sheets recently?
LNZ Cherkasy have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Kryvbas KR in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Kryvbas KR won 0-3 on 23 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, LNZ Cherkasy have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Kryvbas KR — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
LNZ Cherkasy
2
Draws
3
Kryvbas KR
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between LNZ Cherkasy and Kryvbas KR?
From 6 meetings on record, LNZ Cherkasy have won 1, Kryvbas KR have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did LNZ Cherkasy and Kryvbas KR last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Kryvbas KR 0-3 LNZ Cherkasy.
Who has won more matches between LNZ Cherkasy and Kryvbas KR?
Kryvbas KR have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
LNZ Cherkasy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Kryvbas KR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — LNZ Cherkasy 50%, Kryvbas KR 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (LNZ Cherkasy) and 42% (Kryvbas KR).
On the defensive side: Kryvbas KR in 38%; LNZ Cherkasy have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = LNZ Cherkasy home games / Kryvbas KR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when LNZ Cherkasy play Kryvbas KR?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent matches and 46% of Kryvbas KR's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is LNZ Cherkasy vs Kryvbas KR usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent games and 42% of Kryvbas KR's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do LNZ Cherkasy and Kryvbas KR tend to score early?
LNZ Cherkasy have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Kryvbas KR in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at LNZ Cherkasy's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Cherkasy Arena, Regular Season - 26, as LNZ Cherkasy and Kryvbas KR drew 0-0 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting LNZ Cherkasy 1.01 xG and Kryvbas KR 1.09 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. LNZ Cherkasy fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Kryvbas KR landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.96 / defence 1.19 against Kryvbas KR attack 0.89 / defence 0.88, drawn from 55/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it LNZ Cherkasy 33% | Draw 30% | Kryvbas KR 37%, with Kryvbas KR to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (LNZ Cherkasy 43%, Kryvbas KR 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Kryvbas KR's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Kryvbas KR arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. LNZ Cherkasy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line. Kryvbas KR (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.