Livyi Bereh 1-1 FC Kharkiv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Livyi Bereh at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Livyi Bereh vs FC Kharkiv fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Livyi Bereh and FC Kharkiv meet at in Premier League, Additional Qualification. This fixture gets under way on Friday 26 July 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Current Form
Livyi Bereh's overall Premier League record this term: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Livyi Bereh haven't played a Premier League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
FC Kharkiv (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. FC Kharkiv haven't played a Premier League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, FC Kharkiv have gone 0W 2D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.50 vs 0.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Livyi Bereh 1.37 xG and FC Kharkiv 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Livyi Bereh attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.875 / defence 1.189. League average goals — home 1.357 / away 1.211. Data: 0 Livyi Bereh games / 30 FC Kharkiv games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Livyi Bereh 40% | Draw 26% | FC Kharkiv 33%. Fair-value odds: Livyi Bereh 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | FC Kharkiv 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Livyi Bereh as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Livyi Bereh if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Livyi Bereh vs FC Kharkiv | Competition: Premier League, Additional Qualification | Venue: • Kick-off: Friday 26 Jul 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Livyi Bereh 40% | Draw 26% | FC Kharkiv 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Livyi Bereh 1.37 / FC Kharkiv 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Livyi Bereh attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.875 / def 1.189 | league avg home 1.357 / away 1.211 • Poisson stance: Livyi Bereh (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Livyi Bereh xG
Expected Goals
1.22
FC Kharkiv xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Livyi Bereh vs FC Kharkiv kick off?
Livyi Bereh vs FC Kharkiv kicked off at 13:30 on Friday 26 July 2024.
What was the final score in Livyi Bereh vs FC Kharkiv?
Livyi Bereh 1 - 1 FC Kharkiv.
What competition is Livyi Bereh vs FC Kharkiv part of?
Livyi Bereh vs FC Kharkiv is a Additional Qualification fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Livyi Bereh vs FC Kharkiv?
Our statistical model gives Livyi Bereh a 40% chance of winning, FC Kharkiv a 33% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Livyi Bereh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Livyi Bereh vs FC Kharkiv?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Livyi Bereh and FC Kharkiv will score (BTTS).
Will Livyi Bereh vs FC Kharkiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Livyi Bereh and FC Kharkiv?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Livyi Bereh and FC Kharkiv in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Livyi Bereh (all comps): 0W-1D-1L in 2 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Livyi Bereh's attack at 0.85x the league average against FC Kharkiv's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Kharkiv's attack (0.88x) against Livyi Bereh's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 0/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Livyi Bereh Win
40%
2.47
26%
3.79
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Livyi Bereh xG
Total xG
2.59
1.22
FC Kharkiv xG
2.47
40%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
12%
8.37
8%
11.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 9.1 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.5 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Livyi Bereh vs FC Kharkiv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Livyi Bereh and FC Kharkiv expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Livyi Bereh and 1.22 for FC Kharkiv, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Livyi Bereh vs FC Kharkiv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Livyi Bereh's recent record stands at 0W 1D 1L from 2 games, a 0.50 PPG return, with L-D in the last five. Livyi Bereh haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
FC Kharkiv, meanwhile, have gone 0W 1D 1L across 2 games — 0.50 PPG, with D-L in their last five. FC Kharkiv haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.50 PPG for Livyi Bereh against 0.50 for FC Kharkiv. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Livyi Bereh are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; FC Kharkiv are on 2.00 scored and 2.50 conceded. FC Kharkiv's attacking output running into Livyi Bereh's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: FC Kharkiv in 100%.
Last 2 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Livyi Bereh
Pre-Season
FC Kharkiv
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Livyi Bereh and FC Kharkiv in coming into this match?
Livyi Bereh have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 games (0.50 PPG), while FC Kharkiv have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 (0.50 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since July 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 June 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
FC Kharkiv have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Livyi Bereh have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against FC Kharkiv — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Livyi Bereh
1
Draws
2
FC Kharkiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Livyi Bereh and FC Kharkiv?
From 3 meetings on record, Livyi Bereh have won 0, FC Kharkiv have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Livyi Bereh and FC Kharkiv last play each other?
They last met on 1 June 2025, when FC Kharkiv 1-0 Livyi Bereh.
Who has won more matches between Livyi Bereh and FC Kharkiv?
FC Kharkiv have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Livyi Bereh home games / FC Kharkiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Livyi Bereh play FC Kharkiv?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Livyi Bereh's games and 100% of FC Kharkiv's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Livyi Bereh vs FC Kharkiv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Livyi Bereh's recent games and 100% of FC Kharkiv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Livyi Bereh and FC Kharkiv tend to score early?
Livyi Bereh have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, FC Kharkiv in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Livyi Bereh and FC Kharkiv share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at , Additional Qualification, as Livyi Bereh and FC Kharkiv drew 1-1 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Livyi Bereh 1.37 xG and FC Kharkiv 1.22 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Livyi Bereh attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against FC Kharkiv attack 0.88 / defence 1.19, drawn from 0/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Livyi Bereh 40% | Draw 26% | FC Kharkiv 33%, with Livyi Bereh to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Livyi Bereh 0%, FC Kharkiv 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Livyi Bereh 0.50 PPG, FC Kharkiv 0.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC Kharkiv managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.