Livyi Bereh 0-1 Kryvbas KR – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kryvbas KR at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Livyi Bereh vs Kryvbas KR fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 6 as Livyi Bereh welcome Kryvbas KR to Stadion Livyi Bereh. Kick-off is set for Sunday 15 September 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Livyi Bereh have gone 3W 2D 4L from 9 outings — a 1.22 PPG return. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Livyi Bereh have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadion Livyi Bereh, Livyi Bereh have gone 2W 2D 2L this season (6 games, 1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Kryvbas KR — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Kryvbas KR have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Kryvbas KR's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Livyi Bereh 1.22 PPG, Kryvbas KR 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Livyi Bereh in-play and half-time data (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Kryvbas KR in-play and half-time data (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Livyi Bereh 33% | Kryvbas KR 22%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Livyi Bereh 33% | Kryvbas KR 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Livyi Bereh 0.88 xG and Kryvbas KR 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Livyi Bereh attack 0.654 / defence 1.080 | Kryvbas KR attack 0.968 / defence 1.058. League average goals — home 1.268 / away 1.213. Livyi Bereh's attack strength of 0.654 is below the league average — the 0.88 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 5 Livyi Bereh games / 34 Kryvbas KR games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Livyi Bereh 26% | Draw 29% | Kryvbas KR 45%. Fair-value odds: Livyi Bereh 3.85 | Draw 3.45 | Kryvbas KR 2.22. Kryvbas KR hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kryvbas KR at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kryvbas KR offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.15 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Livyi Bereh 33% | Kryvbas KR 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Livyi Bereh vs Kryvbas KR | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadion Livyi Bereh • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Sep 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Livyi Bereh 26% | Draw 29% | Kryvbas KR 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 42% | xG Livyi Bereh 0.88 / Kryvbas KR 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Livyi Bereh attack 0.654 / def 1.080 | Kryvbas KR attack 0.968 / def 1.058 | league avg home 1.268 / away 1.213 • Poisson stance: Kryvbas KR (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Livyi Bereh xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Kryvbas KR xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Livyi Bereh vs Kryvbas KR kick off?
Livyi Bereh vs Kryvbas KR kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 15 September 2024 at Stadion Livyi Bereh.
What was the final score in Livyi Bereh vs Kryvbas KR?
Livyi Bereh 0 - 1 Kryvbas KR.
Where is Livyi Bereh vs Kryvbas KR being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Livyi Bereh.
What competition is Livyi Bereh vs Kryvbas KR part of?
Livyi Bereh vs Kryvbas KR is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Livyi Bereh vs Kryvbas KR?
Our statistical model gives Livyi Bereh a 26% chance of winning, Kryvbas KR a 45% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Kryvbas KR the favourite.
Will both teams score in Livyi Bereh vs Kryvbas KR?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Livyi Bereh and Kryvbas KR will score (BTTS).
Will Livyi Bereh vs Kryvbas KR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Livyi Bereh and Kryvbas KR?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Livyi Bereh and Kryvbas KR in?
Livyi Bereh (all comps): 3W-2D-4L in 9 | 1.22 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Kryvbas KR (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Livyi Bereh's attacking strength (0.65x league average) is weighed against Kryvbas KR's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.88. The same calculation in reverse, Kryvbas KR's attack versus Livyi Bereh's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 0-1 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kryvbas KR Win
26%
3.89
29%
3.47
45%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Livyi Bereh xG
Total xG
2.15
1.27
Kryvbas KR xG
3.89
26%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.20
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
42%
2.40
Win to Nil
7%
13.84
19%
5.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 14.8 | 9.4 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 13.0 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 5.7 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Livyi Bereh vs Kryvbas KR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Livyi Bereh and Kryvbas KR expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Livyi Bereh and 1.27 for Kryvbas KR, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Livyi Bereh vs Kryvbas KR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 9 outings, Livyi Bereh have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 3W 2D 4L record — L-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Livyi Bereh, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Kryvbas KR's form line: 4W 1D 4L from 9 games, 1.44 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for Kryvbas KR, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Livyi Bereh on 1.22 PPG, Kryvbas KR on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Livyi Bereh have posted 1.50 PPG from 4 outings (2W 0D 2L).
On the road, Kryvbas KR have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.44 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Kryvbas KR's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Livyi Bereh come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Livyi Bereh are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Kryvbas KR are on 1.22 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Kryvbas KR in 22%.
Defensively: Kryvbas KR in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Livyi Bereh
Early Season
Kryvbas KR
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Livyi Bereh and Kryvbas KR in coming into this match?
Livyi Bereh have gone 3W 2D 4L in their last 9 games (1.22 PPG), while Kryvbas KR have gone 4W 1D 4L in their last 9 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Livyi Bereh at home or Kryvbas KR away?
Livyi Bereh's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Livyi Bereh at home: 1.50 PPG; Kryvbas KR away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Livyi Bereh or Kryvbas KR been keeping clean sheets recently?
Livyi Bereh have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Kryvbas KR in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Livyi Bereh
0
Draws
2
Kryvbas KR
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Livyi Bereh and Kryvbas KR?
From 2 meetings on record, Livyi Bereh have won 0, Kryvbas KR have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Livyi Bereh and Kryvbas KR last play each other?
They last met on 7 May 2025, when Kryvbas KR 4-0 Livyi Bereh.
Who has won more matches between Livyi Bereh and Kryvbas KR?
Kryvbas KR have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Livyi Bereh see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Kryvbas KR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Livyi Bereh 0% BTTS, Kryvbas KR 25%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Livyi Bereh) and 50% (Kryvbas KR).
On the defensive side: Livyi Bereh keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Livyi Bereh have failed to score in 50% of games; Kryvbas KR in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Livyi Bereh home games / Kryvbas KR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Livyi Bereh play Kryvbas KR?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Livyi Bereh's recent matches and 25% of Kryvbas KR's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Livyi Bereh vs Kryvbas KR usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Livyi Bereh's recent games and 50% of Kryvbas KR's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Livyi Bereh and Kryvbas KR tend to score early?
Livyi Bereh have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Kryvbas KR in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Kryvbas KR edge out Livyi Bereh 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kryvbas KR beat Livyi Bereh 0-1 at Stadion Livyi Bereh, Regular Season - 6, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Livyi Bereh 0.88 xG and Kryvbas KR 1.27 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Livyi Bereh fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Livyi Bereh attack 0.65 / defence 1.08 against Kryvbas KR attack 0.97 / defence 1.06, drawn from 5/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Livyi Bereh 26% | Draw 29% | Kryvbas KR 45%, with Kryvbas KR to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Livyi Bereh 33%, Kryvbas KR 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 28%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Livyi Bereh's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Kryvbas KR's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 22% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Livyi Bereh 1.22 PPG, Kryvbas KR 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kryvbas KR win broke the near-deadlock. Livyi Bereh (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Kryvbas KR (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.