Karpaty 1-3 Polessya – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Polessya at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Karpaty vs Polessya encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Polessya travel to Stadion Ukraina to take on Karpaty. The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 September 2024, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Karpaty have gone 2W 2D 3L from 7 outings — a 1.14 PPG return. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 1.29 goals per game and conceding 1.57 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets in 7 games (43%) reflects a solid defensive base. Karpaty have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Karpaty at Stadion Ukraina this season: 1W 1D 1L from 3 home games — 1.33 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Polessya — All Games: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Polessya have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Polessya have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Polessya are 1.06 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.14), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Data
Karpaty trading profile (7 games): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Polessya trading profile (7 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 57% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 29% of cases; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Karpaty 57% versus Polessya 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Karpaty 57% | Polessya 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Karpaty 1.12 xG and Polessya 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Karpaty attack 1.024 / defence 1.114 | Polessya attack 1.306 / defence 0.876. League average goals — home 1.248 / away 1.136. Polessya have an above-average attack strength of 1.306 — the away xG of 1.65 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 7 Karpaty games / 36 Polessya games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Karpaty 26% | Draw 25% | Polessya 50%. Fair-value odds: Karpaty 3.85 | Draw 4.00 | Polessya 2.00. Polessya hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Polessya are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Polessya offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Karpaty 67% | Polessya 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Karpaty vs Polessya | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadion Ukraina • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Sep 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Karpaty 26% | Draw 25% | Polessya 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Karpaty 1.12 / Polessya 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Karpaty attack 1.024 / def 1.114 | Polessya attack 1.306 / def 0.876 | league avg home 1.248 / away 1.136 • Poisson stance: Polessya (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Karpaty xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Polessya xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Karpaty vs Polessya kick off?
Karpaty vs Polessya kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 28 September 2024 at Stadion Ukraina.
What was the final score in Karpaty vs Polessya?
Karpaty 1 - 3 Polessya.
Where is Karpaty vs Polessya being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ukraina.
What competition is Karpaty vs Polessya part of?
Karpaty vs Polessya is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Karpaty vs Polessya?
Our statistical model gives Karpaty a 26% chance of winning, Polessya a 50% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Polessya the favourite.
Will both teams score in Karpaty vs Polessya?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Karpaty and Polessya will score (BTTS).
Will Karpaty vs Polessya have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Karpaty and Polessya?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Karpaty and Polessya in?
Karpaty (all comps): 2W-2D-3L in 7 | 1.14 PPG | GF 1.29 / GA 1.57 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Polessya (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Karpaty's attack at 1.02x the league average against Polessya's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Polessya's attack versus Karpaty's defence, projects 1.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Polessya Win
26%
3.92
25%
4.00
50%
2.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Karpaty xG
Total xG
2.77
1.65
Polessya xG
3.92
26%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
2.02
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
19%
5.22
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
5%
20.46
16%
6.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 10.3 | 8.5 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.6 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.5 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Karpaty vs Polessya?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Karpaty and Polessya expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Karpaty and 1.65 for Polessya, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Karpaty vs Polessya?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Karpaty come into this having played 7 games, going 2W 2D 3L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-W. It's still early in the season for Karpaty, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Polessya sit at 2.43 PPG from 7 outings (5W 2D 0L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Polessya, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Polessya carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.29 PPG clear of Karpaty — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Karpaty are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Polessya are on 2.14 scored and 0.57 conceded.
Defensively: Karpaty have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games; Polessya in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Karpaty
Early Season
Polessya
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Karpaty and Polessya in coming into this match?
Karpaty have gone 2W 2D 3L in their last 7 games (1.14 PPG), while Polessya have gone 5W 2D 0L in their last 7 (2.43 PPG).
Have Karpaty or Polessya been keeping clean sheets recently?
Karpaty have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Polessya in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 13 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Polessya have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Karpaty's record when hosting Polessya specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Karpaty
1
Draws
3
Polessya
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Karpaty and Polessya?
From 4 meetings on record, Karpaty have won 0, Polessya have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Karpaty and Polessya last play each other?
They last met on 13 December 2025, when Polessya 3-2 Karpaty.
Who has won more matches between Karpaty and Polessya?
Polessya have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Karpaty are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Polessya are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Karpaty 57%, Polessya 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Karpaty) and 43% (Polessya).
On the defensive side: Karpaty keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Polessya in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Karpaty home games / Polessya away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Karpaty play Polessya?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Karpaty's games and 57% of Polessya's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Karpaty vs Polessya usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Karpaty's recent games and 43% of Polessya's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Karpaty and Polessya tend to score early?
Karpaty have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Polessya in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Polessya cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Karpaty.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Polessya beat Karpaty 1-3 at Stadion Ukraina, Regular Season - 8, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Karpaty 1.12 xG and Polessya 1.65 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Polessya outscored their 1.65 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karpaty attack 1.02 / defence 1.11 against Polessya attack 1.31 / defence 0.88, drawn from 7/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Karpaty 26% | Draw 25% | Polessya 50%, with Polessya to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karpaty 57%, Polessya 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Karpaty's trading profile (7 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Polessya's trading profile (7 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Polessya arrived the stronger side — 2.43 PPG against 1.14. Form held, and they took the win. Karpaty shipped 3 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Polessya scored 3 against a 2.14 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.