Karpaty 4-0 Obolon'-Brovar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Obolon'-Brovar at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Karpaty vs Obolon'-Brovar fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Karpaty host Obolon'-Brovar at Ukraina Stadium in Premier League, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 22 March 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Karpaty — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Karpaty, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Karpaty's home record at Ukraina Stadium: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Premier League appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Premier League games this season, Obolon'-Brovar have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Obolon'-Brovar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Obolon'-Brovar's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Karpaty 1.10 PPG, Obolon'-Brovar 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Karpaty, 0 for Obolon'-Brovar and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Sep 2025, ended 2–0 with Karpaty winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Karpaty in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Obolon'-Brovar in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Karpaty 47% versus Obolon'-Brovar 31%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Karpaty 51% | Obolon'-Brovar 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Karpaty 1.08 xG and Obolon'-Brovar 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Karpaty attack 0.866 / defence 1.084 | Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.899 / defence 1.083. League average goals — home 1.149 / away 1.201. Data: 50 Karpaty games / 49 Obolon'-Brovar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Karpaty 33% | Draw 29% | Obolon'-Brovar 38%. Fair-value odds: Karpaty 3.03 | Draw 3.45 | Obolon'-Brovar 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Obolon'-Brovar are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Obolon'-Brovar offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.25 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Karpaty 60% | Obolon'-Brovar 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Karpaty vs Obolon'-Brovar | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Ukraina Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Mar 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Karpaty 33% | Draw 29% | Obolon'-Brovar 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Karpaty 1.08 / Obolon'-Brovar 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Karpaty attack 0.866 / def 1.084 | Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.899 / def 1.083 | league avg home 1.149 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Obolon'-Brovar (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Karpaty xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Obolon'-Brovar xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Karpaty vs Obolon'-Brovar kick off?
Karpaty vs Obolon'-Brovar kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 22 March 2026 at Ukraina Stadium.
What was the final score in Karpaty vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Karpaty 4 - 0 Obolon'-Brovar.
Where is Karpaty vs Obolon'-Brovar being played?
The match is being played at Ukraina Stadium.
What competition is Karpaty vs Obolon'-Brovar part of?
Karpaty vs Obolon'-Brovar is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Karpaty vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our statistical model gives Karpaty a 33% chance of winning, Obolon'-Brovar a 38% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Obolon'-Brovar the favourite.
Will both teams score in Karpaty vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Karpaty and Obolon'-Brovar will score (BTTS).
Will Karpaty vs Obolon'-Brovar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Karpaty and Obolon'-Brovar?
Record (3 meetings): Karpaty 2W | Draws 1 | Obolon'-Brovar 0W.
What form are Karpaty and Obolon'-Brovar in?
Karpaty (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. Obolon'-Brovar (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Karpaty's attack at 0.87x the league average against Obolon'-Brovar's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Obolon'-Brovar's attack versus Karpaty's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 0-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Obolon'-Brovar Win
33%
3.00
29%
3.48
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Karpaty xG
Total xG
2.25
1.17
Obolon'-Brovar xG
3.00
33%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
10%
9.67
13%
7.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 12.4 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.3 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.2 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Karpaty vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Karpaty and Obolon'-Brovar expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Karpaty and 1.17 for Obolon'-Brovar, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Karpaty vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 49 outings, Karpaty have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 18W 14D 17L record — L-L-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Karpaty is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Obolon'-Brovar's form line: 13W 14D 22L from 49 games, 1.08 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-L. The sample for Obolon'-Brovar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Karpaty on 1.39 PPG, Obolon'-Brovar on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Karpaty have posted 1.46 PPG from 24 outings (9W 8D 7L).
On the road, Obolon'-Brovar have gone 7W 4D 13L from 24 away games — 1.04 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Karpaty come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Karpaty are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Obolon'-Brovar are on 0.67 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Defensively: Karpaty have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Karpaty
Blended
Obolon'-Brovar
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Karpaty and Obolon'-Brovar in coming into this match?
Karpaty have gone 18W 14D 17L in their last 49 games (1.39 PPG), while Obolon'-Brovar have gone 13W 14D 22L in their last 49 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Karpaty at home or Obolon'-Brovar away?
Karpaty's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Karpaty at home: 1.46 PPG; Obolon'-Brovar away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Karpaty or Obolon'-Brovar been keeping clean sheets recently?
Karpaty have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Obolon'-Brovar in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Karpaty and Obolon'-Brovar runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Karpaty go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Mar 2026, when Karpaty won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Karpaty's record when hosting Obolon'-Brovar specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Karpaty
1
Draws
0
Obolon'-Brovar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Karpaty and Obolon'-Brovar?
From 4 meetings on record, Karpaty have won 3, Obolon'-Brovar have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Karpaty and Obolon'-Brovar last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Karpaty 4-0 Obolon'-Brovar.
Who has won more matches between Karpaty and Obolon'-Brovar?
Karpaty have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Karpaty are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Obolon'-Brovar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Karpaty 50%, Obolon'-Brovar 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Karpaty) and 50% (Obolon'-Brovar).
On the defensive side: Karpaty keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Obolon'-Brovar in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Karpaty home games / Obolon'-Brovar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Karpaty play Obolon'-Brovar?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Karpaty's recent matches and 33% of Obolon'-Brovar's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Karpaty vs Obolon'-Brovar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Karpaty's recent games and 50% of Obolon'-Brovar's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Karpaty and Obolon'-Brovar tend to score early?
Karpaty have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Obolon'-Brovar in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Karpaty run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Obolon'-Brovar.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Karpaty beat Obolon'-Brovar 4-0 at Ukraina Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Karpaty 1.08 xG and Obolon'-Brovar 1.17 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Karpaty beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Obolon'-Brovar landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karpaty attack 0.87 / defence 1.08 against Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.90 / defence 1.08, drawn from 50/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Karpaty 33% | Draw 29% | Obolon'-Brovar 38%, with Obolon'-Brovar to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Karpaty win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karpaty 51%, Obolon'-Brovar 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Karpaty's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Obolon'-Brovar's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 53% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Karpaty 1.39 PPG, Obolon'-Brovar 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Karpaty win broke the near-deadlock. Karpaty (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.46 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Obolon'-Brovar (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.